Ahead of Aston Villa's match at Tottenham Hotspur, Alex Keble looks at the contrasting styles and form of both teams.
It feels scarcely believable, but if Aston Villa beat Tottenham Hotspur this weekend they will move above them in the Premier League table.
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It goes to show the error of our ways; how tight we cling to themes that emerge early in the story of the season, and how quickly things can change.
Villa under Unai Emery have long had their admirers, but their 5-1 drubbing at Newcastle United on the opening weekend - coupled with Spurs’ unbeaten start as they basked in the spotlight under Ange Postecoglou - had us believing these two clubs were on very different paths.
That could still be the case, of course. Spurs' injury crisis and back-to-back league defeats have swung momentum in Villa’s favour, for now, but there is a long, long way to go and plenty of time for the pattern we saw in early autumn to return.
See: How Hojbjerg and Dier must adapt to Postecoglou's methods
Nevertheless there is a lot riding on Sunday’s head-to-head. For Spurs, they need to get out of this mini rut and preserve their status in the top four.
For Villa, the result is crucial for subtler reasons: if they are to qualify for the UEFA Champions League this season they need improve their away record, especially against teams in the top half of the table.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
37 | +61 | 86 |
| 2 |
Man City
MCI
|
36 | +58 | 85 |
| 3 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
36 | +43 | 78 |
| 4 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
36 | +20 | 67 |
| 5 |
Spurs
TOT
|
36 | +12 | 63 |
Villa have won only seven points from six league matches on the road this season, and although this record is offset by a 100 per cent win rate at home (18 points from six matches), only six Premier League clubs have won fewer away points in 2023/24.
Only one of those clubs, Newcastle, are in the top 13 in the current standings.
See: Premier League weekend preview: What to look out for
What’s more, when isolating away form Villa rank 11th in the table for Expected Goals Against (xGA) with 9.9, and although their Expected Goals (xG) of 8.8 is the sixth-best in the division, it is nevertheless considerably below their 14.7 xG at Villa Park.
And this isn’t necessarily a new trend.
Going back further, the last time Villa won on the road at one of the current top 10 was 1 January when they beat Spurs 2-0 in Emery’s second away match in charge.
"Probably the biggest game, at that time, in the season." ⏪@JacobRamsey41 and @AlexMoreno look back at the last meeting with our next @PremierLeague opponents. 👊
— Aston Villa (@AVFCOfficial) November 23, 2023
He won the first too, a 2-1 victory at Brighton & Hove Albion, but Villa’s record on their travels has declined since then.
Across the final 10 away matches that followed, Villa picked up 15 points, winning four, drawing three and losing three. That is by no means a poor record, of course, although combined with this season’s tally it is arguably short of the required level for Champions League qualification.
Difficult fixtures partially explains away form
However, Villa’s record of two wins from six in 2023/24 has a lot to do with the quality of opposition faced.
Six matches is a small sample size, after all, and Villa have already travelled to Anfield, Stamford Bridge, St. James' Park, and Molineux, the latter proving to be a very tough place to go this season under Gary O'Neil.
Villa were held to a 1-1 draw at Wolverhampton Wanderers, which isn’t a bad result in the context of Man City and Spurs falling to 2-1 defeats there either side of Villa’s visit.
After this weekend, Villa have AFC Bournemouth, Brentford, Manchester United, Everton, Sheffield United, Fulham, and Luton Town in a seven-match away sequence through to March that looks a lot kinder.
The only notable difficult away day there is at Old Trafford, but three Premier League teams – including Crystal Palace – have already won at Man Utd this season.
In other words, Villa have had an unusually tough run of away fixtures, and what follows offers the chance to shake off their early struggles.
Away days at stronger clubs still a concern
Still, there is no getting away from the fact Villa do not have a good record in the bigger away contests.
Granted, their 1-0 win at Stamford Bridge earlier this season was impressive (although they were helped by Chelsea’s poor form at the time), but Villa were well-beaten at Newcastle and also at Liverpool where they lost 3-0.
Last season under Emery, Villa drew 1-1 with Liverpool and lost 1-0 to Man Utd, but beat a struggling Chelsea 2-0 along with that win at Spurs, who were also faltering.
Indeed, the trend is stark. Against last season’s top five, Villa’s record – combining home and away – across eight matches under Emery reads: two wins, one draw, and six defeats.
That’s only seven points from eight matches, and although it isn’t necessarily a barrier to Champions League qualification - Newcastle won six points from eight matches against fellow top-five sides in 2022/23 - it is something Emery will want to improve.
High line might be an issue this weekend
Why aren’t Villa better in these kinds of matches? One possible explanation is Emery's famous high line, which appears to be too risky when faced with elite players capable of breaking the offside trap, both in runs and through-balls.
Eight of the 12 away goals Villa have conceded this season, or 66 per cent, came at Liverpool and Newcastle, matches defined by the opponents’ willingness to play a direct game over the top – or straight through – Villa’s high line.
Indeed the most through-balls completed against Villa in a Premier League fixture this season were the six played by Liverpool and five by Newcastle.
Anyone who watched Newcastle’s win on the opening weekend will recall how many times the hosts burst beyond Villa on the counter-attack.
And at Anfield, Trent Alexander-Arnold repeatedly found room to clip balls over the top for Darwin Nunez in what was a clear tactical decision by Jurgen Klopp to exploit Villa’s flaw.
Villa have been brilliant under Emery. They have won 74 points from 37 Premier League matches, averaging 2.0 points per match - good enough to finish fourth in every single season in the competition’s history.
Any concern about Villa's performances, whatever their nature, are minor quibbles.
Nevertheless, after being thrashed at Newcastle and Liverpool already this season, victory at Spurs would mark an important moment of progress and put them above them in the league.
Maybe at that point, like Spurs in the opening months of the campaign, pundits would begin talking about Villa as possible title contenders.
