Alex Keble analyses why three teams with aspirations of the top four are instead languishing in the bottom half of the table.
Chelsea
Mauricio Pochettino was always going to need time and patience to create something coherent out of the struggles at Stamford Bridge. His hopes of being given either may have been hit by the start his team have made.
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Chelsea are back in the bottom half of the Premier League table with four points from their first four matches, the shock 1-0 defeat at home to Nottingham Forest meaning two weeks of stewing in a disappointing start to life under Pochettino.
But at this very early stage of a long and complicated process, progress is to be measured in small details, in glimmers of light. And there are plenty of those.
Chelsea are not in crisis, not by any reasonable or rational analysis. And yet, considering what happened to Thomas Tuchel (who won six points from the first four matches of last season) and Graham Potter (who won each of his first three league fixtures, but was under intense pressure within a few weeks), Pochettino needs results to quickly improve.
Analysis of what’s gone wrong so far, and how Chelsea fix it, must be prefaced by acknowledgement of a very small sample size. What’s more, Chelsea have had a peculiarly one-note opening to the new season, facing ultra-low blocks and ultra-defensive opponents in three of their four matches.
That’s why they top the Premier League charts for average possession, with an incredible 70.5 per cent.
The tactical flavour of Chelsea matches will change soon and when it does, they might just be in a strong position to climb up the table.
Pochettino has quickly established a template
First, the pros. Another summer of unprecedented player turnover could have left Pochettino confused about his best XI and could have left his squad too unfocused or green to absorb the minute details of the manager’s tactical plans.
Pochettino deserves a lot of credit, then, for establishing a formation, first XI, and playing style so quickly; even in defeat, it is easy to see what Chelsea are trying to do. Having clarity of vision – a goal for everyone to work towards – is half the battle.
Chelsea have been lining up in a hybrid formation that swings between a 4-3-3 and 3-4-2-1, with some complicated shape-shifting designed to keep opponents on their toes.
Starting from the 3-4-3 (below), Reece James (or Malo Gusto) drops to form the back four; Raheem Sterling shuttles over to the right to become one of the wingers, along with Ben Chilwell on the other side; Carney Chukwuemeka converts into a No 8 alongside Enzo Fernandez; and Conor Gallagher becomes the No 6.
Confused? You’re supposed to be. Rotation makes players difficult to track, and Pochettino leans even more heavily into the positional switches by allowing players to improvise and cover for one another, marking a significant point of difference to, for example, the rigid positional coaching of Pep Guardiola.
In all four of Chelsea’s matches so far, there have been significant periods in which the cogs have whirred nicely as a blur of bodies move between these two formations.
That’s why Chelsea have recorded the fifth-highest Expected Goals (xG) of 8.3, the joint-fourth most shots alongside Manchester City (66), and – another hallmark of the Bielsa-inspired Pochettino – have excelled at moving vertically through the lines: they rank fourth for attempted take-ons (45 per 90) and third for successful through-balls (14).
Creativity lacking on the left wing
This all looked rather impressive against Liverpool and for 45 minutes against West Ham United, until Chukwuemeka was withdrawn through injury and the fine-tuned machine was jammed.
Without Chukwuemeka’s ability to play as a left inside forward, left winger, and No 8 all at once, Chelsea look stuck on the left.
Chilwell has recorded only six shot-creating actions from open play – one more than sometimes-overlapping centre-back Levi Colwill – and looks a little crowded without support.
In the second half against West Ham, Mykhailo Mudryk failed to provide the same subtle movement as Chukwuemeka. Against Luton, Fernandez took the Chukwuemeka role but ended up floating deeper, only for Sterling to dance through on his own on the other side.
Against Forest, a match defined mostly by profligate finishing (see below), the disappearance of Chelsea’s left side was even more pronounced.
Who would have thought Chukwuemeka would be so important to Chelsea? Well, Pochettino for one, hence why Chelsea spent a reported £42.5million on Cole Palmer, whose development in the Man City academy means he is equally adept as a left winger, attacking midfielder, or No 8 – the three positions occupied simultaneously by Chukwuemeka.
Defensive transitions need work around Colwill & Silva
Off the ball, Chelsea’s problems so far have been defending against counter-attacks, which might be because counters are the only threat they have actually faced, what with all four opponents choosing to sit back.
Nevertheless, Chelsea need to improve, even if they have the third-best xG against in the division (4.3), allow the second-fewest progressive passes (92), and top the charts for aerial duels won (65.4 per cent).
The issue is between Colwill and Thiago Silva. While blame could be apportioned to either – communication is the key - the more experienced player is perhaps most at fault.
Chelsea have conceded two set-piece goals. The other three, plus a fractional offside goal scored by Mohamed Salah, have all come in transition moments via the Colwill-Silva gap.
Starting with Liverpool, for the first goal, Silva should have come across to close the space, thus cutting off the passing lane to the goalscorer Luis Diaz.
When Salah thought he’d made it 2-0, it was arguably Silva’s fault for not noticing Colwill’s position and moving across.
Against West Ham, the only open-play concession took advantage of Silva wandering out of position, exposing Colwill.
And finally, Forest’s winner caught Colwill too high, but Silva made the wrong call holding his ground, rather than backing off and shuttling Taiwo Awoniyi wide.
Poor finishing and team chemistry the biggest issues
But this analysis is perhaps too deep. There is a simple issue, which thankfully for Chelsea fans is solved just by waiting.
What’s been lacking is an end product, which is a common side-effect of a team not yet gelling.
They might be fourth for shots attempted, but only 25.8 per cent of those have been on target, the third-worst record ahead of Burnley and Luton Town.
Against Forest, their shooting accuracy was 9.5 per cent, which is Chelsea’s lowest in a Premier League match since January 2013.
In fact, only Everton have performed worse against their xG than Chelsea, who have scored 3.3 fewer goals than ‘expected’.
Some critics have pointed to a lack of experience, suggesting that such a young squad is struggling to grab matches by the scruff of the neck, and there is some truth in that. However, there is also the simple fact that the players have not played together, or in England, for long.
That might be the reason why they are snatching at chances or failing to put slick passing moves together.
Indeed, Chelsea are second in the charts for interceptions made by opponents (42), number of times dispossessed (47), and number of misplaced passes (75).
With time, the introduction of Palmer, and perhaps a rethink around Silva, Chelsea can improve.
Despite appearances, Pochettino is laying down strong foundations. All he needs – if it isn’t too much to ask – is a little time.
Also in this series
Part 1: Newcastle United
Part 3: Manchester United