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How Mitrovic's exit will impact Fulham

23 Aug 2023
Mitrovic

We analyse how Marco Silva's side will cope following their first-choice forward's departure to Saudi Arabia

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Fulham's visit to Arsenal on Saturday will be their first match since talisman striker Aleksandar Mitrovic's reported £46million move to Al-Hilal.

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The Serbian international was Fulham's top scorer last season, netting 14 goals in 24 league appearances.

Mitrovic also played a crucial role in Fulham’s promotion back to the Premier League during 2021/22, netting a record 43 goals in a single Championship campaign.

Head coach Marco Silva, who has expressed the need for another "four or five additions" will be especially keen to bolster his attack further.

See: Silva seeking replacement for Mitrovic

Raul Jimenez and Adama Traore were signed from Wolverhampton Wanderers, while Brazilian striker Carlos Vinicius will hope to improve on the five goals he netted for Fulham in 2022/23.

Last season, Jimenez failed to score in 15 matches for Wolves and injuries over the past few years have restricted him from recapturing his 2018/19 and 2019/20 form, when he achieved double-figures.

Indeed Traore's most prolific season was with Wolves in 2019/20, when he struck only four times.

The table below shows how Fulham have performed with and without Mitrovic, since their return to the Premier League in 2022/23.

With Mitrovic Fulham Without Mitrovic
25 Matches 15
11 Wins 5
6 Draws 1
8 Losses 9
37 Goals for 19
1.5 Ave. goals for* 1.3
44 Win % 0.3
1.6 Ave points 1.1
12.0 Shots* 9.9
1.44 Expected goals* 0.9
2.5 Headed shots (ex. blocks)* 1.3
28.5 Aerial duels* 27.0

* Per 90 mins

To put it simply, Fulham were more likely to win if Mitrovic was leading the line. With the 28-year-old starting, they claimed a win every 2.3 matches. But without him, that rate went down to every three matches.

Fulham's average points dropped from 1.6 per match to only 1.1, which is a significant impact.

At 6ft 2in, Mitrovic used his height and physicality to great effect last season, with his six headed goals the third most behind Harry Kane and Erling Haaland.

Mitrovic also provided a consistent threat, even without always scoring. His total of 93 shots taken was joint-sixth alongside Arsenal's Martin Odegaard 

With him up front, Fulham would average a respectable 12 shots per match, but in his absence this dropped to 9.9. Similarly with headed efforts, falling from 2.5 a match down to only 1.3.

Knowing Mitrovic was in the starting XI, also increased Fulham's expected goals to 1.44, without him this number became 0.9, a considerable difference.

Overall, Mitrovic's involvement greatly raises Fulham's stats and filling his void will be no easy task. Silva however, will remain hopeful his current strikers or a new addition, will eventually seize the opportunity.

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