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Why Alvarez is worth the risk for final Gameweeks in FPL

The Scout 1 May 2023
Julian Alvarez, Man City

The Scout highlights the numbers that show Man City's forward can thrive over the run-in

Julian Alvarez (£6.0m) has the potential to offer managers in Fantasy Premier League huge value over the season run-in.

The Argentinian’s minutes in league matches have recently been boosted by Manchester City’s progress to the UEFA Champions League semi-finals.

Alvarez started both their Premier League matches in Double Gameweek 34, producing a goal and an assist against Fulham last weekend. 

Alvarez's goal v Fulham

Alvarez's 12-point haul against the Cottagers means he has delivered a double-digit return in three of his last four starts.

When assessed against his team-mates since the season resumed after the FIFA World Cup 2022, the 23-year-old has been a big success when selected. 

Alvarez has scored five goals and supplied a further three assists in just 730 minutes.

He has scored or assisted a goal every 91.3 minutes from Gameweek 17 onwards, second only to the 66.2 minutes of Erling Haaland (£12.4m).

Man City attackers, GW17-34
Player G A Mins per goal/assist
Haaland 17 5 66.2
Alvarez 5 3 91.3
Mahrez 4 8 93.3
De Bruyne 4 8 94.2
Foden 3 2 112.2
Grealish 4 9 114.5

The premium-priced Kevin De Bruyne (£12.2m) has been involved in a goal every 94.2 minutes. 

Jack Grealish (£7.3m), who has played more minutes than any Man City attacker since the season resumed, has produced a goal or an assist every 114.5 minutes in that run.

The underlying numbers further highlight Alvarez’s huge goal threat.

His average of 29.2 minutes per shot is close to the 26 minutes of Haaland since the season resumed.

In addition, his minutes per shot in the box, big chance and shot on target are all second only to the Norwegian for Man City in this period.

Man City goal threat, GW17-34
Player Mins/shot Mins/shot in box Mins/big chance Mins/shot on target
Haaland 26.0  27.5 45.5 52.0
Alvarez 29.2 38.4 121.7 60.8
De Bruyne 37.7 161.4 565.0 125.6
Grealish 43.8 60.0 372.3 114.5
Mahrez 44.8 65.9 224.0 140.0
Foden 56.1 80.1 187.0 187.0

Alvarez has been supplied with a big chance every 121.7 minutes, more than three times faster than the 372.3 minutes of Grealish.

And in terms of frequency, Alvarez’s numbers over the season as a whole also compare favourably with other forwards in Fantasy.

While Haaland leads the way with a goal every 71.2 minutes, Alvarez’s average of 140.9 minutes per goal places sixth in his position.

That is quicker than the 143 minutes of Ivan Toney (£7.5m), who is the third top-scoring forward in Fantasy on 180 points.

Forwards in 2022/23 Fantasy
Player Goals Mins/goal
Haaland 35 71.2
Wilson 15 103.8
Isak 10 108.4
Kane 25 121.7
Firmino 9 130.0
Alvarez 8 140.9
Toney 20 143.0

Man City’s schedule certainly looks encouraging for their attackers.

Guardiola’s side face two of the bottom four clubs - Leeds United and Everton - prior to their Double Gameweek 37.

Man City's remaining fixtures
Gameweek Opp. FDR*
35 Leeds (H) 2
36 Everton (A) 2
37 Chelsea (H) 3
  Brighton (A) 3
38 Brentford (A) 3

*Fixture Difficulty Rating (1=easiest, 5=hardest)

Although Grealish is the most secure double-up option alongside Haaland, Man City’s European duties can continue to help Alvarez thrive in Fantasy. 

Their encounter with Leeds this weekend takes place just three days before the first leg of their European tie against Real Madrid.

If Guardiola opts to rotate his domestic line-ups, Alvarez, at a cost of only £6.0m, can prove a budget gem for the remainder of the campaign. 

Also in this series

Part 1: The Scout's FPL GW35 Ones to watch
Part 2: The Scout's FPL GW35 Differentials
Part 3: Scout Selection: Best FPL team for Gameweek 35

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