With plenty more drama guaranteed at both ends of the table in Matchweek 31, Alex Keble looks at the key talking points.
What is Smith's plan for Leicester?
As Dean Smith arrives at Leicester City, it will be interesting to see what style of football he will look to implement.
During his time as Brentford manager, the Bees played expressive, attacking football. Smith brought that approach to Aston Villa in 2018/19, triggering a 10-match winning streak in the Championship that was followed by a difficult first season in the top flight.
After 28 matches of his debut campaign as a Premier League manager, Villa - who were far too easy to play through - had only 25 points and seemed destined for the drop.
When the pandemic triggered a three-month hiatus in early March 2020, Smith and John Terry, now at Leicester too, worked on a new defensive shape. Villa abandoned their old principles of passing out from the back and attacking in high numbers.
Instead, they reverted to a backs-to-the-wall system that sought to limit opposition chances, minimise risks and launch counters through Jack Grealish. Eight points from the final four matches justified the sudden overhaul.
Villa's change of approach in 2019/20
| First 28 matches | Last 10 matches | |
| Possession | 45.7% | 39.3% |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive third touches/90 | 197.2 | 151.7 |
| Miscontrols/90 | 15.3 | 11.8 |
| Dispossessions/90 | 8.9 | 6.5 |
| Points | 23 | 10 |
It seems likely that Smith will use this template at Leicester - certainly for such a tough opening match at Manchester City, and especially with the Foxes so often porous when pushing up under Brendan Rodgers.
Man City have scored more goals from high turnovers than any other side, with nine, while Leicester have faced the most shots from high turnovers in the Premier League this season, with 50.
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Leicester’s expansive possession style has actually been getting worse over time. They have held more than 60 per cent possession on six occasions in the Premier League this season and lost all six matches.
They have also picked up just two points across their top 10 Premier League matches for possession share. Smith, then, might not want so much of the ball.
James Maddison, so often compared to Grealish, can be lethal on the break so Smith may similarly funnel attacks through a man who has scored in each of his last two visits to the Etihad Stadium.
An ultra-defensive formation seems the best way to approach the trip to Man City, and it could even be Smith's template through April and May.
West Ham a tough challenge for Arsenal?
The general perception that West Ham United are struggling for points has rapidly become outdated.
The Hammers have picked up 15 points from their last 10 Premier League outings, an average of 1.5 points per match equal to the one set across their successful 2021/22 season.
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What has changed? The simplest explanation is that West Ham have either got luckier with their shots or have improved their finishing.
Across their first 19 matches of the season they scored 15 goals from an Expected Goals (xG) tally of 23.5, but over the last 10 have scored 12 from an xG of 13.4.
Their goals scored to xG difference of –11.4 remains the biggest in the Premier League, but it is closing rapidly.
Whatever the reason, this will not be an easy match for Arsenal despite West Ham’s 5-1 home defeat to Newcastle United earlier this month. This won’t be news to Mikel Arteta, who will recall David Moyes’ side went 1-0 up in the reverse fixture at Emirates Stadium, only for Arsenal to turn it around and win 3-1.
The Gunners will try to avoid another scare like that.
Arsenal’s setback last weekend in what was an emotionally-charged 2-2 draw at Anfield demands a strong and confident response. Any supporters relaxed about facing a relegation candidate should beware that West Ham are in better form than most people realise.
Cooper's new shape can frustrate Man Utd
Nottingham Forest are without a win in nine matches and sinking fast, yet a noteworthy tactical tweak in the 2-0 defeat at Aston Villa last weekend makes the visit of Manchester United on Sunday one worth keeping an eye on.
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For the second time this season Steve Cooper used a Villa match to try something new. Back in October, following a five-match losing streak, Cooper abandoned his adventurous football for something considerably more conservative in a 1-1 draw with Villa.
This prompted a sequence of 18 points won from the next 12 matches, during which time their average possession share fell from 44.5 per cent to 36.5 per cent.
But eventually the opposition caught up with his change and so Cooper went back to Villa for another experiment – this time with a 3-4-2-1 formation.
Despite losing at Villa Park, wing-backs Neco Williams and Harry Toffolo looked more comfortable with an extra centre-back behind them. Meanwhile, the use of two No 10s in Danilo and Morgan Gibbs-White allowed Forest to go man-for-man against Douglas Luiz and John McGinn, stopping Villa from building through the middle.
This capacity to block the centre will be crucial against a Man Utd team welcoming back Casemiro, especially if Erik ten Hag decides to keep Bruno Fernandes in a deeper playmaking role.
Whatever the configuration, a stubbornly defensive Forest side with a new back five stand a chance. After all, United have lost three of their last four away matches.
Can Villa squeeze into Europe?
Since Unai Emery’s first Premier League match as Villa manager in November, only Arsenal and Man City have picked up more points or won more matches.
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His record reads 35 points from 17 contests, or 2.1 per match, which over the course of a 38-match season would equal 78 points.
In nine of the last 10 seasons, that tally would be enough to finish in the top three, and as runners-up on three occasions.
It’s that kind of ridiculous stat that has Villa supporters dreaming of the top four despite the apparent implausibility.
Opta’s modelling gives them only a 1.8 per cent chance of finishing fifth or higher, but that might shift a fair bit should they beat Newcastle United at Villa Park in Saturday's early kick-off.
Doing so would end Newcastle’s five-match winning streak and put Villa six points behind Eddie Howe’s side, albeit having played an extra match.
If Villa are to squeeze into the UEFA Champions League, they need to go an unprecedented hot streak while also hoping a win this weekend triggers a downward spiral for Newcastle.
Everton need goals in pivotal match
The points-per-match records of those locked in the relegation battle suggests as little as 35 points could be enough to stay up this season, which means Everton need at least another eight.
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When you consider that 10 of the 12 points Sean Dyche has won as Everton boss were at Goodison Park, where the Toffees only have four matches left - including Man City and Newcastle - suddenly Fulham on Saturday looks a pivotal moment in their season.
It is certainly winnable. Fulham have lost each of their last four Premier League matches, the same number of defeats as in their previous 16, and have conceded 12 goals across their last five.
Aleksandar Mitrovic’s continued absence could help Everton bully their visitors, especially if Dyche moves back to a 4-5-1 after the failed experiment with a 4-4-2 at Old Trafford last weekend.
However, it remains unclear quite where Everton’s goals are going to come from. They have scored two goals in a match only twice since late October and their top scorer Demarai Gray has just four in the Premier League.
There was at least more a threat against Tottenham Hotspur in the last home match, with the Toffees registering 15 shots as they fought back with 10 men to grab a late 1-1 draw.
This may not be a classic, but if Everton are to discover a new goalscoring avenue for the run-in, it is likely to be this weekend, in their only remaining Goodison Park fixture prior to the final day against a team outside the current top four.
Can Saints halt Palace’s dribbling frenzy?
Crystal Palace’s revival under Roy Hodgson appears to have been built on carefree attacking football channelled through his surprisingly creative central midfield, where Eberechi Eze and Jeffrey Schlupp are operating as No 8s behind a front three.
Against Leicester, they hit a joint club-record 31 shots at goal, and then against Leeds United they made 33 successful dribbles, the most by any Premier League team on record since 2003/04.
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But there is reason to believe this success will be short-lived. Leeds are notoriously aggressive in how they press, sprinting hard at players and consequently leaving themselves vulnerable to being dribbled past, while Leicester have been disordered for some time.
In fact, tellingly Leeds and Leicester rank first and second in the Premier League for the number of take-ons against them.
No wonder mazy dribblers Palace, who have attempted the second-most take-ons in the league, with 618, weaved through their first two matches under Hodgson.
In stark contrast, Southampton have conceded the third fewest take-ons that lead to a shot (27), behind Arsenal and Man City, while also making the fifth-fewest errors leading to a shot (six) and topping the charts for total interceptions (327) despite being bottom of the league.
The graphic below shows how difficult Tottenham Hotspur's players found it to dribble through Saints last month at St Mary's.
In other words, Southampton have a more robust defensive shape than Leeds or Leicester, and are well set up to shackle Hodgson's team.
