Following the thrilling midweek action, the Premier League continues this weekend. From the ultimate test of Arsenal's title credentials to Nottingham Forest manager Steve Cooper feeling the heat ahead of a trip to Aston Villa, Alex Keble looks at the key talking points.
Anfield a decisive test for Arsenal
Arsenal’s grip on the title race is more precarious than it might appear.
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Racking up seven consecutive Premier League victories (and averaging of 3.3 goals per match) gives the impression of an Arsenal side firmly in control, the February blip long behind them.
But closer analysis of the schedule makes for less comfortable reading: the highest-ranked team Arsenal played during this run was eighth-placed Fulham.
Thrashing inferior teams is a vital quality of title winners. It is also the simplest to achieve.
A tougher run-in starts at Anfield on Sunday in what is, perhaps, Arsenal’s season-defining moment.
See: How Liverpool midfield can stop Arsenal
A win would present them with the opportunity to sit at least 11 points clear of Manchester City (albeit having played two extra matches) when the two meet on 26 April, knowing it is their most difficult away trip of the season. Anything less and, should City keep winning, Pep Guardiola will enter that six-pointer knowing victory will put them in the driving seat.
The common accusation that Liverpool are erratic is misplaced. Jurgen Klopp’s side are winless in four in all competitions but each of those has been away from home, whereas at Anfield they have won five (and drawn one) of their last six Premier League matches – including winning each of their last three with an aggregate score of 11-0.
It has been seven hours and 26 minutes since they last conceded a goal at home.
Liverpool points comparison
| 2022/23 | Home | Away |
| Played | 13 | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 9 | 3 |
| Drawn | 3 | 4 |
| Lost | 1 | 8 |
| Goals for | 34 | 14 |
| Goals against | 9 | 24 |
| Goal difference | 25 | -10 |
| Points | 30 | 13 |
| Points per match | 2.3 | 0.9 |
Emerge unscathed from Liverpool and Arsenal will take a giant leap forward in their quest to end their 19-year wait for the title.
Lampard return to free shackles?
Frank Lampard’s surprise Chelsea return aims to stabilise a club rocked by a difficult few months. But this is no fire-fighter appointment.
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History suggests Lampard will look to unshackle his players from the shrinking, sideways possession that dragged the Graham Potter era into its stodgy final stage.
During his only full season in charge at Stamford Bridge in 2019/20, Lampard’s side were an expansive and expressive team defined by high-energy attacking football that verged on the care-free – for better and for worse.
Despite finishing fourth in the table, Chelsea ranked second, behind Man City and above 99-point Liverpool, on a host of metrics including shots (618), shot-creating actions (1,121), and key passes (459), reflecting the manic attacking energy that saw Lampard’s side pour forward.
But by spreading out and attacking in high numbers, Chelsea were regularly vulnerable on the counter-attack, lacking the structural assurance that we tend to see from a patient, but rigid, overall shape like Potter’s.
That’s why Chelsea conceded the ninth-most goals (54), and although openness to opposition attacks can be difficult to capture in statistics, there is one telling sign they were often too fanned out to plug the gaps: Chelsea made a combined 1,097 tackles and interceptions, the fifth most in the division behind Crystal Palace, West Ham United, Southampton and Leicester City.
For a team who averaged 60.4 per cent possession, that is a huge number of defensive interventions of the kind that, more often than not, reflect recoveries from thorny situations.
Most assured defending happens without actually needing to challenge for the ball.
This is not to say that Lampard won’t succeed during his nine matches as caretaker manager.
Arguably what Chelsea need most, after months of fine-tuned positional coaching under Potter, is someone who will turn the dial a little, allowing greater imagination to rebuild confidence and release the talent in the Chelsea forward line.
Wolves, more ponderous in possession under Julen Lopetegui, might be particularly vulnerable to fast and improvisational attacking football, as evidenced by the way Leeds United cut through them to score four times last weekend despite Wolverhampton Wanderers holding 65.9 per cent possession.
Southampton's pedigree v ‘Big Six’
On first look, rock-bottom Southampton, without a win in four, look set to be blown away by a Man City side that has won their last seven matches in all competitions and were magnificent in the 4-1 destruction of Liverpool last weekend.
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But there is reason to keep an eye on this encounter - and to wonder if, just maybe, Ruben Selles can pull off another shock "Big Six" result.
Saints are unbeaten in their last four matches against "Big Six" opponents in all competitions, drawing with Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur after beating Chelsea 1-0 at Stamford Bridge and Man City 2-0 in the EFL Cup (albeit against a rotated side that included Cole Palmer and Sergio Gomez).
To any Southampton, or Arsenal supporters, searching for hope this Saturday, the 1-0 win at Chelsea is worth a closer look.
Coupling a deep line of engagement with an aggressive snap into challenges once Chelsea entered their half, a tightly congested Southampton 4-4-2 formation did a superb job of limiting their opponents’ chances back in February at Stamford Bridge.
Much will rest on the tireless midfield work of James Ward-Prowse and Romeo Lavia to shut down the centre of the pitch, while Kyle Walker-Peters will need help dealing with the in-form Jack Grealish.
The odds are stacked against Southampton, but stranger things have happened.
On three separate occasions this season, Man City have dropped points having held more than 70 per cent possession (against Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest and Everton).
In that EFL Cup defeat at St. Mary’s – in which Palmer was withdrawn for Kevin De Bruyne at half-time, making it a near-full strength City XI – they held 73 per cent possession, but just couldn’t find a way through.
It was, in fact, very similar to the pattern and style of their league meeting at St Mary’s last season, which ended in a 1-1 draw.
Mitrovic ban boosts Moyes
Perhaps as a result of the Premier League’s highly unusual cluster of nine clubs drawn into the relegation battle, we have seen a record-high 13 managerial changes this season. Is there still time for more?
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David Moyes will be in the dugout for West Ham’s trip to Fulham, but he admitted after the 5-1 home defeat by Newcastle on Wednesday that “if you’re a manager and you lose badly like I did tonight, you’re always in jeopardy”.
Fulham is a must-win match, not least because Marco Silva’s side are on their own run of three successive defeats and are without the suspended Aleksandar Mitrovic, who is not only Fulham’s top scorer, with 11 goals, but a huge part of Silva’s gameplan.
Only Spurs have scored more headed goals than Fulham’s 12 (which represents a league-high 31 per cent of their total) and only Spurs complete more crosses into the penalty area than Fulham’s 2.7 per match. It goes some way to explaining why Fulham have collected 32 points from 21 matches in which Mitrovic has started (1.5 points per match) and seven points from the seven in which he has not (1.0ppm).
One of those encounters without Mitrovic was a 3-1 defeat at West Ham back in October, a match defined by the aerial dominance of the hosts.
Only Man City, Arsenal and Brighton & Hove Albion allow fewer completed crosses into their penalty area than West Ham’s 1.5 per match, and Kurt Zouma tops the Premier League charts for percentage of aerial duels won (84.5 per cent) among players who have featured in 10 or more matches.
In other words, without Mitrovic, Fulham stand little chance of beating West Ham in the air, handing Moyes the initiative.
Cooper faces Villa at wrong time
An eight-match winless run that leaves Nottingham Forest outside the bottom three on goal difference alone has, according to reports, put Steve Cooper under pressure, and while a statement from club owner Evangelos Marinakis denied he was about to change manager, it also acknowledged that “results and performances must improve immediately”.
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This is hardly the ideal time to be playing Aston Villa, whose five wins and one draw from their last six matches makes them the division’s second-most in-form team behind Man City.
On Saturday they aim to win their third consecutive league match at Villa Park for the first time in the same season since October 2007. There are plenty of reasons to assume they will do it, especially considering the difference in confidence between the two teams.
Villa have scored a league-high nine goals in the opening 15 minutes of home fixtures this season, highlighting a self-belief under Unai Emery that will surely only grow as they move towards the European places.
They could finish the weekend in sixth and within three points of Spurs in fifth, at which point their dream of entering the UEFA Europa League group stage for the first time since 2008/09 would move into view.
To make matters even more ominous for Forest fans, their team have only won a single point (v Brighton) in away matches against top-half opponents this season.
Dyche can stifle goal-shy Man Utd
Largely for the reasons noted earlier this week regarding their midfield configuration in Casemiro’s absence, Man Utd have been struggling to build through the lines and create big chances: across their last four Premier League matches, they have scored only once, amassing a combined Expected Goals (xG) of just 3.2.
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The problem is exacerbated by the use of Wout Weghorst in an advanced position, with the on-loan striker yet to muster a goal in nine appearances.
Sean Dyche is renowned for his stubborn defences, and although Everton have been more porous than he would like away from home – conceding two or more in each of their last five such matches in the league – the manager's influence is beginning to show.
Everton are undefeated in four matches. They will sit back a little and trust they can slow the game down, just as Southampton did in a 0-0 draw at Old Trafford in March.
Much rests on Marcus Rashford, whose winner in the 1-0 victory over Brentford on Wednesday means he has now scored more goals (11) than anyone in the Premier League since the FIFA World Cup 2022, and means he is responsible for seven of the last nine goals United have scored in the competition, stretching all the way back to mid-January.
For Dyche and Everton, the mission is clear: stop Rashford and a clean sheet is on the cards.
