How much will Man Utd miss suspended Casemiro?

14 Mar 2023

Brazilian to miss four matches after receiving second red card of the season against Southampton

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Manchester United will be without midfield linchpin Casemiro until 15 April after he was sent off in the goalless draw with Southampton

Casemiro has been given a four-match suspension due to receiving his second red card of the campaign, one for violent conduct and one for serious foul play.

Sunday's match was only his second appearance since returning from his first ban, picked up five weeks ago against Crystal Palace.

It means he will miss Man Utd's FA Cup quarter-final against Fulham on 19 March and three subsequent Premier League matches. 

Crucially, the first of those league fixtures is a trip to top-four rivals Newcastle United in their first match after the international break. Newcastle are six points behind Man Utd but have a match in hand.

So, just how much will Man Utd miss the 31-year-old five-time UEFA Champions League winner? 

Well, worryingly for United, the stats show they concede more goals and win fewer matches and points when Casemiro is not starting.

What Man Utd will take hope from is that they score more themselves when Casemiro is not in the team, averaging 1.8 goals per match without him, compared with 1.4 when he starts.

That could prove crucial against Newcastle in particular, given the Magpies have conceded the fewest goals of all Premier League teams this season, with 18. 

Man Utd with and without Casemiro
Premier League Casemiro starting Casemiro not starting
Matches 15 11
Goals conceded/match 1.1 1.7
Goals scored/match 1.4 1.8
Win percentage 66.0% 54.5%
Points/match 2.1 1.7

Man Utd have also shown they can come up with a Plan B in the Brazilian's absence. 

Even though their stats without him are telling, they dropped only two of a possible nine points without him last month against Leeds United, twice, and Leicester City

They will hope to cope similarly well before welcoming him back against Nottingham Forest in Matchweek 31. 

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