Fantasy Premier League

Best Brighton midfielders to own for Double GW27

By The Scout 10 Mar 2023

The Scout uses Expected Goals data to assess the FPL prospects of Mac Allister, Mitoma and March

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The Scout assesses the new Expected Goals (xG) data in Fantasy Premier League to pinpoint the best Brighton & Hove Albion midfielders to own for their Double Gameweek 27.

Interest in the Seagulls is picking up pace ahead of their two Double Gameweeks in the next three rounds of matches, although they are one of six teams who don't have a fixture in Blank Gameweek 28.

Kaoru Mitoma, Alexis Mac Allister (both £5.4m) and Solly March (£5.1m) are all among the top four most-bought midfielders in the Gameweek.

Mitoma is by far the most popular target, brought in by 110,000+ after his 13-point haul in the 4-0 win over West Ham United on Saturday.

Mac Allister and March, meanwhile, have collected 36,000 and 27,000 new owners respectively.

Mac Allister was Brighton’s top-scoring player against the Hammers with 14 points, while March has recorded all four of his double-figure hauls in 2022/23 Fantasy since the season resumed.

Mac Allister thriving in new role

When assessing the Seagulls’ midfielders, a key factor is a recent change of position for Mac Allister.

The Argentinian previously played in a deep-lying role in a midfield double-pivot under Roberto De Zerbi.

Since the season resumed after the World Cup, he has occupied a No 10 role, flanked by Mitoma and March on the left and right respectively.

After being eased back into action after his triumph in Qatar, Mac Allister made his first start in his new position in Gameweek 20.

Fantasy points GW20-26
Player Goals Assists Points
Mitoma 3 2 44
March 3 1 39
Mac Allister 1 1 21

He has managed just a goal, an assist and 21 points over his five matches.

By contrast, Mitoma and March both scored three goals, with the Japanese star delivering more than double Mac Allister’s output, with 44 points.

However, the xG data tells a very different story.

In terms of xG, Mac Allister is comfortably the best of the three, with a score of 3.41.

He played a part in only two goals in that period, but his expected goal involvement (xGI) is 4.03, over double that total.

Mitoma’s numbers, on the other hand, show he is overperforming by some margin. The winger has played a part in five goals, but his xGI is only 2.53, almost half that tally.

March’s three goals and an assist are more reflective of his xGI of 3.71.

The minutes per xGI data further strengthens Mac Allister’s appeal in Fantasy.

After featuring in five of Brighton’s previous six encounters - he missed the 1-0 win over AFC Bournemouth in GW22 due to suspension - his average of 109.7 minutes per xGI is comfortably the best of the three and over 100 minutes better than Mitoma.

Player xG xA* xGI FPL goal involvement Mins/ xGI
Mac Allister 3.41 0.62 4.03 2 109.70
March 2.23 1.48 3.71 4 140.90
Mitoma 1.52 1.01 2.53 5 209.90

*xA = Expected Assist

Further analysis of the trio’s displays in Fantasy since De Zerbi took charge in Gameweek 9 shows why Mitoma is the most popular pick.

Stats under De Zerbi
Player Blanks Starts Goals Assists Pts/ start
Mitoma 3 11 6 4 6.7
March 11 17 5 4 5.2
Mac Allister 11 13 2 1 3.4

He has blanked in just three of his 11 starts for the Italian, averaging 6.7 points per appearance when named in their first XI.

Although March has almost matched Mitoma’s six goals and four assists in that run, he has blanked in 11 of his 17 starts.

Mac Allister, meanwhile, has produced returns in only two of his 13 starts under De Zerbi.

As shown by his converted spot-kick against the Hammers, Mac Allister also has penalty duties to lift his potential.

If he continues in his new advanced role, the Argentinian can deliver huge hauls over the upcoming period.

Nonetheless, he is only a tactical tweak away from being moved back alongside Moises Caicedo (£5.0m) in central midfield and decreasing his Fantasy appeal.

So Mac Allister should be looked at by FPL managers as a short-term double-up option alongside Mitoma, whose reliable output makes him the best Brighton pick for the rest of the season.

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