Victory for Manchester United against Liverpool would put them just two points behind Jurgen Klopp’s side in the table, but defeat would leave them eight adrift. So it seems that Old Trafford hosts a genuine crossroads moment in the season.
Tactics expert Adrian Clarke analyses what to look out for.
Runners must be tracked
Both sides have players who are outstanding at making decisive runs into the box from deep. If they are not monitored closely, these well-timed bursts could decide matters.
For United, Juan Mata is a specialist at arriving late to convert chances.
His one-touch strikes against Arsenal and West Ham United showcased the Spaniard’s intelligence and technique.
Whether Mata starts or comes on as a substitute, Liverpool must not let him ghost into the 18-yard area undetected.
Paul Pogba has scored twice in his past five PL starts and is another adept at sneaking into advanced positions.
The club-record signing has made 27 efforts from inside the box this term, but is not as clinical as Mata. Ranked joint-fourth in the division for the most off-target shots from inside the box, 14, Pogba can be a little wasteful.
Undeterred by his misses, though, the Frenchman tends to play the numbers game.
How Man Utd and Liverpool attacking midfielders compare
Player | Shots in box | Shots on target in box | Chance conversion |
Pogba | 27 | 8 | 7% |
Mata | 21 | 13 | 18% |
Lallana | 17 | 8 | 50% |
Wijnaldum | 13 | 5 | 9% |
For Liverpool, Adam Lallana is the main man in this department. The energetic 28-year-old is at his best in a midfield three. This allows him to make driving runs into the centre of the penalty area and pop up unexpectedly.
Lallana has seven goals and as many assists in 2016/17. He also boasts a remarkable 50% chance-conversion rate. This is a huge increase on his rates of 14% and 18% in the previous two campaigns.
Fresh from his winner against Manchester City, Georginio Wijnaldum must also be monitored closely. His timing is exquisite, but it should be noted the Dutchman still awaits his first away goal in English football.
Expect both managers to ask their midfield runners to test their opposite numbers' desire to track them into their own penalty area. One lapse in concentration could decide the match.
Stopping the flow
Jose Mourinho and Klopp have differing outlooks, but share a desire to disrupt the fluency of their opponents. Before the match, both coaches will be drilling their players with instructions on what to do without the ball.
This in part explains why their 0-0 draw at Anfield in October turned out to be so cagey.
In United’s case, this defensive attitude is more prevalent in "top-six" encounters.
Mourinho’s men defended with a back six for long periods at Anfield, and the last three high-profile PL fixtures at Old Trafford have all placed the onus on nullification.
A limp first-half display against Manchester City aside, United have successfully knocked fellow title contenders out of their stride on home turf, with an emphasis on aggression and closing down space.
United restricted Pep Guardiola’s team to 77.5% pass accuracy in the second half of their September meeting; a feat almost identically matched when Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur came to visit.
Do not expect Man Utd to be too passive on Sunday. They will go all out to force loose passes from Liverpool.
Pass accuracy at Old Trafford
Team | Pass accuracy v MUN | Season average |
Man City | 82.0% | 84.4% |
Arsenal | 78.6% | 83.4% |
Spurs | 77.6% | 82.3% |
Similarly, Klopp’s philosophy will ensure his team works hard to spoil United’s rhythm.
Pressing with intensity, Liverpool’s work-rate impacted on the passing accuracy of Arsenal (79.6%), Spurs (73%), Man Utd (75.7%) and Man City (80.2%), in important matches this season.
Their impressive 2-1 win at Chelsea (87.8%) was the sole anomaly.
With time on the ball likely to be at a premium, dobe surprised if you see a stream of misplaced passes from both sides.
Two from six for Mourinho
Since Mourinho settled on a 4-3-3 shape, the uncertainty surrounding half a dozen of Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s fellow front men has been cleared up.
With the Swede a first-choice regular and United’s midfield three of Pogba, Michael Carrick and Ander Herrera now practically set in stone, Wayne Rooney, Marcus Rashford, Mata, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Jesse Lingard and Anthony Martial know the two places either side of Ibrahimovic are the only positions up for grabs.
This has created competition for places, and standards have been raised across the board.
In chance conversion alone, United have experienced a rise from 7.14% from their first 10 PL matches to 11.32% for the second 10.
Mourinho also deserves credit for how he has rotated these six forward-minded players without weakening the XI.
Out of a possible 900 minutes of PL football since November, all have featured for less than half the allotted time.
This has kept legs and minds fresh and, at present, all six are in terrific form, with apparently no signs of fatigue.
After frustrating their manager in the early weeks, Martial and Mkhitaryan have started to inject vibrancy in wide areas.
Do not be surprised if one of the names in the table below turns out to be the matchwinner.
United's in-form support strikers (last 10 PL matches)
Player | Mins | Shots | Chances created |
Goals | Assists |
Mata | 446 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 |
Mkhitaryan | 378 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 0 |
Martial | 324 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
Lingard | 313 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
Rooney | 305 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 3 |
Rashford | 253 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
Coutinho return
For Liverpool the blow of losing Sadio Mane to the Africa Cup of Nations has been softened by the return of Phillippe Coutinho.
While his absence was not perhaps as keenly felt as some predicted, his creativity will provide a boost, especially for Roberto Firmino.
Firmino has been on the pitch for all but 14 of the last 900 minutes of PL action, but has scored just one of his six goals since his compatriot was injured in late November.
On the back of Firmino’s indifferent displays against Manchester City and Sunderland, this reunion is timely.
Firmino loves linking up with Coutinho. Despite having been separated for seven weeks the two Brazilians still top Liverpool’s rankings as the most creative duo.
Interestingly, Firmino is more often the provider of goal opportunities for Coutinho than vice versa. United must be wary of this compatible couple.
Chances created: Top Liverpool performers
Player 1 | Player 2 | P1 to P2 | P2 to P1 | Total |
Coutinho | Firmino | 6 | 10 | 16 |
Coutinho | Mane | 5 | 9 | 14 |
Firmino | Mane | 7 | 7 | 14 |
Wijnaldum | Firmino | 6 | 7 | 13 |
Lallana | Firmino | 5 | 5 | 10 |
Clyne | Mane | 8 | 2 | 10 |
Final thoughts
Liverpool are unbeaten against their five title contenders, but must contend with a United side who have found their groove in recent weeks.
In central midfield they have made particularly impressive strides. The varied attributes of Carrick, Herrera and Pogba have combined beautifully to lay the foundation of a series of solid victories.
Based on what we have seen in 2016/17, I expect United to allow Liverpool the lion’s share of the ball at Old Trafford.
At home to Man City, Arsenal and Spurs their possession ranged from 39.9% to 45.5%, but this time they will at least have a more potent goal threat.
Three goals in five matches against United’s principle title rivals is not a prolific return, but the form of Ibrahimovic and United’s other forwards means they are better placed to prosper on the counter-attack.
The major concern for the hosts is uncertainty in central defence. If Marcos Rojo is not fit to play, Phil Jones and Chris Smalling are likely to start a PL fixture together for the first time in over a year.
They have not completed 90 minutes in the league as a pairing since back-to-back defeats by Norwich City and Stoke City in December 2015.
Provided those two can hold firm and the rest of the side maintain their recent level, I can see United claiming their first major scalp of the season.
If they are to be considered genuine title contenders, they probably have to.