When Tottenham Hotspur appointed Antonio Conte, they did so in the hope that the Italian will be able to replicate his success with Juventus, Chelsea and Inter Milan.
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So far, so good. Conte’s reign in north London has started with a four-match unbeaten run, an achievement he has managed with all five top-flight clubs he has managed.
His first league defeat has never come until at least his fifth match, and his fifth in charge of Spurs will be his first real test.
After facing only bottom-half teams so far in Everton, Leeds United, Brentford and Norwich City, Conte is now preparing his team to host a Liverpool side who are on a six-match winning run and have taken the last 18 points against Spurs.
Conte's unbeaten top-flight starts
| Club | Year | Matches | Wins | Draws |
| Atalanta | 2009 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus | 2011 | 48 | 32 | 16 |
| Chelsea | 2016 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Inter Milan | 2019 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Spurs | 2021 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Conte has quickly started to implement his favoured tactical style.
Nuno Espírito Santo’s time at the club ended with a 3-0 defeat to Manchester United in a 4-2-3-1 formation, but Conte has moved to three at the back.
That switch has produced early success, with the Italian taking 10 points from his first four matches.
That is more than Spurs have managed in a four-match spell within the same season since November and December of last year.
At the back, Spurs have kept three clean sheets within their new formation.
Going forward, after struggling to create in Conte’s 0-0 debut at Everton, they have gone on to produce three of their top five single-match Expected Goals (xG) figures of the season.
Nuno and Conte's stats per match
| 2021/22 | Nuno | Conte |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 4 |
| Goals | 0.90 | 1.75 |
| xG | 1.01 | 1.64 |
| Goals against | 1.60 | 0.25 |
| xG against | 1.55 | 0.93 |
The big question now is whether Conte’s tactics will produce an improved Spurs performance against not only a top-half team, but title challengers Liverpool.
After all, the north Londoners’ last three matches against the traditional big six clubs have ended in defeats by 3-0, 3-1 and 3-0 scorelines.
In fact, Spurs’ goalscoring potency this season is more comparable to that of a single Liverpool player than to Jurgen Klopp’s side as a whole.
Mohamed Salah has scored 13 non-penalty Premier League goals this season, matching Spurs’ own non-penalty total, excluding own goals.
The Egyptian has already scored or assisted 24 Premier League goals this term, providing at least one goal involvement in 15 straight matches to equal Jamie Vardy’s record from 2015.
How to stop the Reds?
The data suggests that, when facing Liverpool, there is perhaps a marginal level of added cover provided by going with a back three or five.
Chelsea and Brentford both drew with Liverpool using such a shape.
However, the last three teams to play with a back three or five against Liverpool have lost by a 10-0 aggregate.
The reality is Klopp’s team score and concede at about the same rate regardless of the defensive formation they face.
Liverpool facing different systems 2021/22
| Stats per match | Facing back four | Facing back three/five |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 5 |
| Points | 2.42 | 2.20 |
| Goals | 2.83 | 2.80 |
| xG | 2.46 | 2.70 |
| Goals against | 0.75 | 0.80 |
| xG against | 0.83 | 1.01 |
Conte has a solid record when facing Klopp. In their four meetings, the pair have taken five points each, with four goals scored apiece.
The big question for the Italian, this weekend and beyond, is whether he can produce similar results with Spurs.
One thing is for sure: If he can devise a way to stop Salah in his current form, he’ll have jobs at the top table of European football for as long as he wants.
Kevin Chroust is Co-Editor in Chief at TheAnalyst.com