The Premier League title race is tight, with leaders Arsenal five points ahead of Manchester City, who can reduce the gap to two if they beat AFC Bournemouth on Tuesday night.
If City don't win, that would make Arsenal champions with a game to spare.
Should Man City beat Bournemouth it would send the title race into the final day. Man City would then need to beat Aston Villa at the Etihad Stadium and hope that Arsenal drop points against Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park.
If this happened with an Arsenal draw at Palace, it would mean both clubs would finish the season level on 83 points. It would be only the second time the top two teams have ended the season on identical points in the competition’s history.
In such scenarios, how would the title then be decided?
Rule C.17 of the Premier League Handbook states the final table placings for teams with identical points are determined by the following criteria, in this order:
- goal difference
- goals scored
- points won in head-to-head matches
- away goals scored in head-to-head matches
- a playoff match
Man City's goal difference — the number of goals they have scored minus the goals they have conceded — is the same as Arsenal's (+43).
But if Man City were to win their final two matches (as they would have to do to win the title), their goal difference would, of course, go up from +43, while Arsenal's would stay at that number with a draw at Selhurst Park.
That would mean that in such a scenario Man City would be champions on goal difference.
The last – and only – time the Premier League’s top two finished level on points and the title was decided on goal difference was in 2011/12, when Man City finished top for the first time in the competition's history.
That was the season when Sergio Aguero scored in the fourth minute of stoppage time to complete a remarkable 3-2 comeback win over Queens Park Rangers on the final day.
It meant Man City finished level with Manchester United on 89 points, but claimed their first top-flight title in 44 years courtesy of a +64 goal difference, which bettered their rivals’ +56.
While 2011/12 is the only time goal difference has come into play to crown the champions, the title has been settled by a single point in six different seasons, most recently in 2021/22, when Man City pipped Liverpool thanks to a 3-2 final-day comeback win over Aston Villa.
Even if Arsenal and Man City had finished level on points and goal difference this season, City would have the advantage in the next criteria, goals scored. They have registered 75 goals to Arsenal's 69.
And in the next criteria, points from head-to-head matches, Man City again have the upper hand because they have won more points across the two matches with Arsenal this season.
Pep Guardiola’s team beat Mikel Arteta's side 2-1 at the Etihad Stadium on 19 April, following a 1-1 draw at Emirates Stadium in September, meaning Man City have picked up four points from the two fixtures, compared with Arsenal’s one.
So even if the tightness of Arsenal's 1-0 victory over Burnley on Monday night has slightly narrowed their path to a first title in 22 years by removing the possibility of goal difference determining it in their favour, it retained their advantage in the element that matters most: points.