Football writer Alex Keble analyses where this weekend's fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Will free-flowing City capitalise on nerves? Or will Arsenal defy doubters?
- Can De Zerbi home debut give Spurs a bounce?
- Will Rosenior stop slide against teetering Man Utd?
- Can Leeds use Old Trafford win to spark one final push?
- Can goal-shy Forest handle expectation of beating Burnley?
- Would derby victory light up Everton's European dreams?
- Can Mavropanos take advantage of Palace's set-piece woes?
- Will Bournemouth beat Newcastle to take a step towards Europe?
- Can Villa get win that would help them over line?
- Can Thiago keep Brentford in European places?
Will free-flowing City capitalise on nerves - or will Arsenal defy the doubters?
It just isn’t possible that the biggest Premier League match of the season will disappoint.
That’s because even a hesitant 90 minutes low on chances will be engrossing; fraught with nerves and loaded with the potential to see the league leaders either lose control of the title race or grind out a draw worthy of celebration.
A draw would leave Arsenal three points clear at the top even if Manchester City subsequently won their game in hand, leaving Mikel Arteta’s side in the driving seat - but the title race on a knife edge.
An Arsenal win would stretch their lead to at least six points (if City win their game in hand), a deceptively large gap at this stage. The Gunners could then draw three of their final five games and still be guaranteed to finish joint-top.
But a Man City win might feel just as decisive in the other direction. It would allow Pep Guardiola’s side to travel to Burnley on Wednesday night and go top, on goal difference, with victory at Turf Moor.
In other words, within three days of Sunday’s clash all the hypotheticals would be gone. Man City could have finished the job of reeling Arsenal in.
The looming prospect of that outcome must be filling Arsenal supporters with nerves, especially since Arteta’s side have won just one of their last five matches in all competitions, scoring just three goals. Is tension setting in? Are limbs seizing up?
Sunday’s game is an opportunity to provide an emphatic answer to that question, although if Arsenal do feel the pressure then Man City may pounce. Right now, they look like everything Arsenal are not: free-flowing, relaxed and full of goals.
Guardiola’s side are the favourites. But if ever there was a time for Arsenal to prove to the world they can win the title - can seize the day – this is it.
Can De Zerbi's home debut give Spurs a new-manager bounce?
The appointment of Roberto De Zerbi represents one final reset, one final attempt at avoiding relegation, and although Tottenham Hotspur got off to a difficult start last weekend with a defeat against Sunderland, a new managerial project only really gets going in front of the home fans.
In that respect, Saturday’s game is the beginning of the De Zerbi era. That means Spurs must put in a strong performance, must ignite their relegation battle, because anything that quietens the crowd – that emulates the foggier performances under Igor Tudor – could have disastrous consequences.
Defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion, De Zerbi’s old team, would make it two losses from two for the new Spurs head coach.
Unfortunately for the hosts, Brighton are in excellent form. They have won five of their last six Premier League games and each of their last three on the road, and since Matchweek 27 they’ve won more points than any other team, with 15.
Spurs are still yet to win in 14 matches in 2026. They need a result, but also a performance to suggest De Zerbi can create a tactical set-up capable of getting his team over the line.
Will Rosenior stop the slide against a teetering Man Utd?
Manchester United’s 2-1 defeat to Leeds United on Monday night could be a huge moment in the reign of Michael Carrick. After an almost perfect start to life in the job, Carrick’s side have now lost two of their last four league games. Defeat at Stamford Bridge would move Chelsea to just four points off United.
But it’s arguably an even bigger game for Liam Rosenior. Chelsea have lost their last three Premier League matches and only once this century have they lost four in a row in the competition, doing so in April/May 2023 under Frank Lampard.
Since the start of March, no side in Europe’s big five leagues have lost more games in all competitions than Chelsea (six in nine games).
Although it’s highly unlikely quite so many results will go against them this weekend, it is possible that by the end of the weekend Chelsea will be as low as 10th in the table. Rosenior will be deseparate to stop the slide.
Man Utd haven’t lost back-to-back Premier League games this season, but a Chelsea win would blow the UEFA Champions League race wide open.
Can Leeds use Old Trafford win to spark one final push?
Daniel Farke sank to his knees at the full-time whistle at Old Trafford, knowing a famous victory had just taken Leeds to within touching distance of safety. But they are not there yet.
It is essential Farke’s side build on that victory – and they have the perfect opportunity to do it. Six more points would take them to 42, surely sealing the deal, and Leeds have Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley in their next two home games.
Leeds’ campaign has been successful so far but it will all come down to what happens at Elland Road over the next few weeks, starting with this weekend’s game.
And yet, Leeds have failed to score in four of their last five Premier League games at Elland Road, including the last three in a row. Now is the time to turn that around. Victory would be transformative; perhaps season-defining.
Can goal-shy Forest handle expectation of beating Burnley?
Nottingham Forest fans will be well aware their three-point buffer to Spurs in 18th could disappear in an instant. Should De Zerbi’s home debut go well, all of a sudden the calculations would change – and all of a sudden Forest would look the most likely to drop out of the division.
There is enormous pressure on this one, then, not least because Burnley provide Forest with the opportunity to rediscover their goalscoring touch.
Forest have registered just 14 goals in 16 home Premier League games this season, failing to score in five of their last seven at the City Ground.
Never mind their four-game unbeaten run in the Premier League, that kind of record is worrying when in the midst of a relegation battle.
They host a Burnley side who have faced the most shots (533), the most shots on target (181), and the most Expected Goals (xG) (64.0) in the Premier League this season.
Vitor Pereira will expect his players to take full advantage.
Would derby victory light up Everton's European dreams?
Everton supporters will be looking forward to a Merseyside derby more than they have done for years. They will sense a huge opportunity here to beat their rivals in the inaugural clash with Liverpool at Hill Dickinson Stadium and use that euphoric feeling to launch an assault on the European places.
Liverpool have lost four of their last five matches in all competitions and could well be tired after their midweek defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League. What’s more, they have won just three of their last 22 away Premier League matches against teams starting the day in the top half of the table, losing six of their last seven.
Meanwhile Everton are looking to win three in a row at Hill Dickinson Stadium for the first time, which would close the gap to Liverpool to just two points, putting the Toffees (and three or four others) into the race for Champions League football.
It would be a monumental result, the kind that can catapult a club to a whole new level.
Can Mavropanos take advantage of Palace's set-piece problems?
Of all the team’s in the relegation battle, West Ham United perhaps have the most difficult game this weekend: Crystal Palace are in form, having picked up 13 points in their last seven Premier League games.
But Oliver Glasner’s side do have a vulnerability that the Hammers can exploit.
West Ham have won five of their last 11 Premier League matches, picking up 18 points, more in that period than all but four other clubs in the division. A big reason for that is their attacking set-pieces, with corners responsible for four of their last seven goals in the competition.
Konstantinos Mavropanos has scored three of those. Palace will be marking him closely.
Or they will at least try to. Palace have conceded 15.3xG from set-pieces this season, more than any other side, while 38.9 per cent of all the goals they have let in have been from dead balls, which again is the most in the Premier League.
If West Ham get their corner routines right, they stand a good chance of continuing their fine form.
Will Bournemouth beat Newcastle to take a step towards Europe?
AFC Bournemouth have never before played in Europe. Their ambition for this season is clear, and after the huge win at Arsenal last weekend the self-belief must be there to match.
Andoni Iraola’s side are unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League matches, their longest undefeated run in the competition. The last team outside of Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City who had a longer run without losing was Newcastle United in 2022/23 (17).
Newcastle long for those days. Eddie Howe’s team have lost seven of their last 10 Premier League matches and four of their last five at St James' Park. The form guide only points one way.
Can Villa get win that would help them over the line?
It’s fair to say Aston Villa haven’t been at their best in the Premier League in 2026.
Villa ended 2025 on a run of 12 victories in 14 Premier League games, but since January have won just 16 points from 13 games, winning four. They are still in a strong position to qualify for the Champions League but a couple more wins at least are needed.
Unai Emery might be looking at games against Spurs and Burnley in May, but then again Villa would benefit significantly from being in a commanding position before they potentially play in the semi-finals of the Europa League.
They are favourites this weekend, but only just. Sunderland have won their last two Premier League games and are looking to record three consecutive top-flight victories for the first time since a run of four in April/May 2014.
A home win would ease the pressure and allow Villa to focus on the Europa League. Anything else could make Emery and his team a little nervy.
Can Thiago keep Brentford in the European places?
A brilliant campaign for Keith Andrews and Brentford is at a sliding doors moment.
Four consecutive draws has left them clinging on to seventh in the table, and with a tough set of games remaining – their away trips are to Old Trafford, Anfield, and the Etihad Stadium – it won’t be easy staying above the chasing pack.
In fact, should Brentford fail to beat Fulham this weekend, and should they lose all three of those very difficult away games, then there is high chance Brentford will fall out of the top 10 altogether.
They need Igor Thiago’s goals more than ever. He has scored 21 in the Premier League so far, putting him one off Erling Haaland at the top of the leader board.
There is a reason why nobody this century has won the Coca-Cola Golden Boot while playing for a club who finished below seventh. If Thiago keeps scoring, Brentford can maintain their grip on the European places.