The Scout assesses the underlying numbers of Aston Villa's Morgan Rogers (£7.5m), who is the most-sold player this week in Fantasy Premier League despite having a favourable fixture in Blank Gameweek 31, and looks at who the best midfielders are.
It seems that many Rogers owners have had enough in Fantasy after the Villa midfielder extended his poor run of form with a fourth straight blank last weekend at Chelsea.
The England star has had 375,000+ transfers out - more than any other player ahead of Saturday's 13:30 GMT deadline - having produced just one goal and two assists in his last 12 outings.
And that exodus is despite Rogers' favourable home match against West Ham United in Blank Gameweek 31 (BGW31), when Arsenal and Manchester City's highly owned assets are without a match and will therefore score zero points.
As a reminder, a "Blank Gameweek" contains fewer than the normal matches, with at least two clubs having no Premier League fixture, and players from such a club having no chance of scoring Fantasy points.
So, what should you do with Rogers, and if you're selling, who are the best replacements? Let's look at the data.
Why has Rogers' form dipped?
One of the main issues for Rogers recently has been the absence through injury of Villa's first-choice central midfield pairing of Youri Tielemans (£5.9m) and Boubacar Kamara (£4.9m).
Kamara has been absent since Gameweek 22 and has been ruled out for the rest of the season, while Tielemans - who is expected back next month - joined him on the sidelines in Gameweek 23.
An assessment of Rogers' displays since Villa lost both Kamara and Tielemans shows that, in terms of frequency, his minutes per shot and chance created have actually improved over the last six Gameweeks.
As the table below shows, Rogers has produced a shot every 30.0 minutes from Gameweek 24 onwards - better than his previous average of 41.1 minutes. His statistics for shots in the box have also improved.
However, Rogers has been undone by a poor 5.6 per cent goal conversion rate, scoring only one of his 18 attempts.
That's less than HALF his previous goal conversion rate of 13.5 per cent over Gameweeks 1-23, when he scored with seven of his 52 shots.
Rogers attacking threat comparison
| GW1-23 | GW24-29 | |
| Goal conv. | 13.5% | 5.6% |
|---|---|---|
| Mins/shot | 41.1 | 30.0 |
| Mins/chance created | 74.0 | 68.0 |
| Shots in box/90 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
How has Rogers compared with other midfielders for goal threat?
When assessed against other midfielders in Fantasy over those last six Gameweeks, Rogers' total of 18 shots ranks joint-top alongside Chelsea star Cole Palmer (£10.6m) and Nottingham Forest's Morgan Gibbs-White (£7.3m).
Furthermore, his 10 shots in the box sit just one behind that duo at the summit, alongside Man City's Antoine Semenyo (£8.3m), Crystal Palace's Ismaila Sarr (£6.3m) and West Ham's Crysencio Summerville (£5.7m).
But the vital difference between them is that Rogers has had just one big chance, which is a situation where a player is expected to score.
Palmer, by contrast, has had seven big chances, including three converted penalties.
Semenyo and Sarr have each had five overt the same period, which essentially means they have been expected to score with 50 per cent (five out of 10) of their shots in the box, compared with Rogers' 10 per cent (one out of 10).
There's no surprise, then, to see that Palmer, Semenyo and Sarr have also boasted the best goal conversion rates among the midfielders with the most shots over the last six Gameweeks, because they have essentially had the highest number of gilt-edged scoring chances.
Midfielders with most shots, last six Gameweeks
| Player | Shots | Shots in box | Big chances | Goal conv. |
| Palmer | 18 | 11 | 7 | 27.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gibbs-White | 18 | 11 | 3 | 16.7% |
| Rogers | 18 | 10 | 1 | 5.6% |
| Salah | 16 | 13 | 2 | 6.3% |
| Anderson | 16 | 4 | 0 | 6.3% |
| Semenyo | 14 | 10 | 5 | 28.6% |
| Sarr | 14 | 10 | 5 | 28.6% |
| Summerville | 14 | 10 | 3 | 21.4% |
| Gordon | 14 | 9 | 3 | 14.3% |
| Fernandes | 14 | 3 | 2 | 14.3% |
Scroll across to see the full table on mobile
How many big chances has Rogers been involved in?
It's when you look at Rogers' involvement in big chances over the last six Gameweeks that he drops off markedly.
Palmer leads the way. As well as his own seven big chances, he has created a further two in this period, which means he has been involved in a total of nine big chances from Gameweeks 24-29.
Manchester United's Bruno Fernandes (£10.1m) also comes to the fore here. The Portuguese equals the nine big-chance involvements of Palmer in this spell, although seven of those he has created for his team-mates.
Brentford's Dango Ouattara (£6.0m) has been the standout budget pick, with his eight big-chance involvements knocking the seven of Semenyo out of the top three.
As the table below shows, there are 10 midfielders who have been involved in at least five big chances over the last six Gameweeks - at least two more than Rogers' total of three.
Big-chance involvement stats, last six Gameweeks
| Player | Big-chance inv. | Big chances | BCC* |
| Palmer | 9 | 7 | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fernandes | 9 | 2 | 7 |
| Ouattara | 8 | 3 | 5 |
| Semenyo | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| Salah | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| Sarr | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Damsgaard, Mbeumo | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Dewsbury-Hall | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Jensen | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| Rogers | 3 | 1 | 2 |
*BCC = Big chances created
So, who would be the best replacements?
At this point of the season, many decisions ultimately come down to your chip strategy, as well as the composition of your squad.
For example, if you are planning to play your Wildcard after BGW31, then you only need to target the next two Gameweeks when considering a Rogers replacement.
However, if you've already played your Wildcard and most or all of your chips, then you also have to factor in Blank Gameweek 34 (BGW34), which coincides with the FA Cup semi-finals.
At present, only four matches are scheduled to take place, with a MINIMUM of two matches and MAXIMUM of four set to be postponed.
Notably, Villa are one of only seven clubs to have a match in both BGW31 and BGW34.
And, as you can see from the table below, Villa's schedule is among the very best of those seven clubs. According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), their average scores over both the next two Gameweeks and next five Gameweeks are under three.
Clubs who don't blank in GW31 or GW34
| Club | FDR ave. GW30-31 | No. of matches scoring 1 or 2 | FDR ave. GW30-34 | No. of matches scoring 1 or 2 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2.5 | 1 | 2.6 | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa, Brentford | 2.5 | 1 | 2.8 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2.0 | 1 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Man Utd | 3.0 | 0 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Spurs | 3.0 | 1 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Sunderland | 3.5 | 0 | 3.2 | 1 |
| West Ham | 4.0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1 |
Scroll across to see the full table on mobile
Both Nottingham Forest and Brentford also have the schedules to appeal to managers who are looking for a short-term or mid-term Rogers replacement.
In the case of Forest, Elliot Anderson (£5.5m) has been the most consistent midfielder or forward this season for output thanks to his defensive contributions.
The midfielder has collected two points for his defensive contributions in 21 of his 29 starts, while also scoring twice and supplying three assists.
See: Is Anderson underrated or overrated in Fantasy?
Brentford's Ouattara offers a greater chance of bigger hauls, with four double-figure returns in just 18 starts, compared with Anderson's one in 29.
Fulham's Harry Wilson (£6.0m) looks a great option if he's passed fit to face Forest this weekend, in Gameweek 30. The Welshman produced 16 points against Fulham's BGW31 visitors Burnley earlier this season and has to be among the best captaincy contenders for that reduced round of matches.
Elsewhere, Bournemouth's Marcus Tavernier (£5.3m) is another great short-term pick, visiting Burnley on Saturday. His nine shots and eight shots in the box rank joint-top among all players in Fantasy since he returned from injury over the last two Gameweeks.
So, what should Rogers owners do?
Although Rogers' frequency of shots and chances created have actually sped up over the last six Gameweeks, his lack of involvement in big chances will continue to make him a very frustrating player for managers to own in Fantasy.
Indeed, he's only had a total of four big chances all season, despite his high quantity of shots.
Arguably the biggest factor in his favour is the fact that so many Fantasy managers will have a high quota of Arsenal and Man City players without a match in BGW31, which means that Rogers isn't a priority sell if he can help you navigate the next two Gameweeks without the need to take -4 points hits.
And with an ownership of 26 per cent, he'll still be one of the most-selected midfielders who have a match in BGW31, in spite of that recent exodus.
Certainly, Fernandes' all-round potential makes him a must-have for any FPL squad, with the Portuguese a standout captaincy option in home matches, in particular.
There's also a growing argument that Palmer should not be overlooked. Indeed, since both Man Utd and Chelsea appointed new head coaches ahead of Gameweek 22, Palmer's total of 56 points is just four behind Fernandes in top spot for midfielders.
If you're only looking at the next two Gameweeks, then Wilson, Tavernier and Ouattara seem far likelier to reward you. Meanwhile, both Ouattara and Anderson offer better mid-term solutions for those who are without any chips left to play.