The ongoing concerns over Erling Haaland's (£14.7m) fitness and minutes lift the appeal of going against him with the captaincy in Gameweek 29, with his Manchester City team-mate Antoine Semenyo (£8.2m), along with Manchester United's Bruno Fernandes (£10.0m) and Liverpool's Hugo Ekitike (£9.1m), among the strongest alternatives.
Haaland is a slight doubt for Man City's very favourable home match against Nottingham Forest. The Norwegian missed his side's 1-0 win over Leeds United last weekend due to a knock, with Semenyo scoring the decisive goal.
Fernandes and Ekitike, meanwhile, delivered 13 and 15 points respectively in the last Gameweek.
Both are on their travels this time around, with Man Utd visiting Newcastle United and Liverpool up against Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Who are the form players in Fantasy?
By starting the analysis from Gameweek 22, you get a better idea of the changing landscape in Fantasy.
This period coincides with the appointment of new head coaches at both Chelsea and Man Utd, as well as Semenyo's switch to Man City from AFC Bournemouth.
As you can see in the table below, Chelsea and Man Utd each provide two of the 10 top-scoring players over this seven-Gameweek period.
Chelsea's Joao Pedro (£7.6m) and Cole Palmer (£10.6m) rank among the top four, with the former leading the way on 57 points thanks to five goals and five assists under Liam Rosenior.
Fernandes takes second spot on 52 points, with his team-mate Bryan Mbeumo (£8.7m) another to impress for head coach Michael Carrick.
Semenyo, meanwhile, is Man City's top-scoring player since his move in January. He's blanked just twice in his seven outings and even played up front against Leeds due to Haaland's absence.
Nico O'Reilly (£5.1m) sits just one point behind the 45 of Semenyo, having been moved into central midfield lately by Pep Guardiola. Similarly to Haaland, he is a doubt for the match against Forest.
O'Reilly is one of three defenders in Fantasy who are keeping pace with the attackers here, along with Liverpool's Virgil van Dijk (£6.1m) and Arsenal's Gabriel (£7.1m).
It's worth noting that West Ham United pair Crysencio Summerville (£5.7m) and Jarrod Bowen (£7.5m) are also among the top performers here, thanks to a restructuring of their side's attack following the signing of forward Taty Castellanos (£5.5m).
Top-scoring players, last seven Gameweeks
| Player | Pts | G+A* | Clean sheets | Blanks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joao Pedro | 57 | 10 | N/A | 1/7 |
| Fernandes | 52 | 7 | 3 | 2/7 |
| Van Dijk | 50 | 4 | 2 | 2/7 |
| Palmer | 47 | 6 | 2 | 3/6 |
| Semenyo | 45 | 5 | 3 | 2/7 |
| O'Reilly | 44 | 3 | 3 | 3/7 |
| Mbeumo | 43 | 5 | 3 | 2/7 |
| Summerville | 43 | 4 | 3 | 3/7 |
| Bowen | 41 | 5 | N/A | 2/7 |
| Gabriel | 41 | 2 | 3 | 3/8 |
*Combined goals and assists. Scroll across to see the full table on mobile
Who's had the most attacking potential?
An assessment of each player's involvement in big chances (BC) - situations where a player is expected to score - shows Fernandes leads the way over these last seven Gameweeks.
He's had three big chances and created eight more of them, which means he has been involved in a league-high 11 big chances from Gameweek 22 onwards.
When it comes to goal threat, though, it's Joao Pedro and Ekitike who impress the most. Indeed, they are the top two players in the league for both big chances and shots in the box across this spell.
Elsewhere, Brentford supply as many as four players in the analysis below, with Dango Ouattara (£5.9m) their standout player due to his all-round style of play. The budget midfielder sits joint-second for big-chance involvement, having five of his own and creating five more.
Attacking stats, last seven Gameweeks
| Player | BC inv. | Shots in box | BC | BC created |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernandes | 11 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| Joao Pedro | 10 | 20 | 10 | 0 |
| Palmer | 10 | 11 | 8 | 2 |
| Ouattara | 10 | 8 | 5 | 5 |
| Ekitike | 9 | 19 | 9 | 0 |
| Thiago | 8 | 16 | 7 | 1 |
| Barry | 8 | 11 | 6 | 2 |
| Jimenez | 7 | 16 | 7 | 0 |
| Calvert-Lewin | 7 | 12 | 7 | 0 |
| Mbeumo | 7 | 12 | 5 | 2 |
| Damsgaard | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Jensen | 7 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
Scroll across to see the full table on mobile. BCC = Big chances created
Who's facing the weakest defences?
An assessment of the defensive data over each side's last four matches looks very encouraging for Fernandes and Mbeumo.
Their opponents Newcastle have an identical record to Burnley - both teams have conceded nine goals and 13 big chances, and failed to keep a clean sheet.
That also looks good news for Everton's Thierno Barry (£5.7m) ahead of his home clash against the Clarets, with the forward among the top players for big-chance involvement in the table above.
The statistics also show Wolves have been fortunate to keep two clean sheets and concede a mere three goals in their last four matches - their total of 12 big chances conceded is the same as Leeds in the table below.
Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest's frailties show why Semenyo backers can expect more joy on Wednesday evening.
Team defensive stats, last four matches
| Club | Big chances conc. | Clean sheets | Goals conceded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs | 15 | 0 | 10 |
| Burnley, Newcastle | 13 | 0 | 9 |
| Nott'm Forest | 13 | 1 | 6 |
| Leeds | 12 | 0 | 5 |
| Wolves | 12 | 2 | 3 |
So, who is the best captain for Gameweek 29?
The doubts over Haaland's fitness are surely enough for managers to steer clear of the Norwegian.
In the event that Haaland misses out and Semenyo gets another chance up front, then the Ghanaian's extra points for goals and clean sheets as a midfielder makes him the most appealing pick against Forest's poor defence.
It's worth noting that Fernandes and Ektike have been far more reliable in home matches this season than they have been on the road: Fernandes has produced just two of his nine double-figure hauls away from home, while only one of Ekitike's five double-figure hauls have come in away fixtures.
Nonetheless, Fernandes's greater routes to returns, added to Newcastle's poor defensive data, makes him the more likely of the two to reward you.