Title race: Each team's remaining fixtures RANKED

Football writer Alex Keble analyses the state of play at the top of the Premier League table with three clubs vying for the title.

The Premier League title race is hotting up with leaders Arsenal only four points clear of Manchester City in second and Aston Villa in third with 15 rounds of matches to play.

Statistically, this is one of the tightest races at this stage of a season in Premier League history. There have only been six previous occasions when the gap between first and third has been four points or fewer.

There are bound to be more twists and turns left in the title race, but who has the best fixtures on paper?

To gauge this, we have used Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), a resource that has long been useful for Fantasy Premier League managers when planning their future transfers.

The FDR is based on a complex algorithm developed by FPL experts and ranks fixtures by difficulty on a sliding scale from one (easiest) to five (hardest). By adding each club's remaining FDR scores together and dividing them by 15 (the number of games remaining), we can measure how tricky their respective schedules are.

With that in mind, here’s a look at what the fixture lists of the three title contenders can tell us about the months ahead.

Each title contender's remaining fixtures

*Scroll across to see the full table
FDR key - green = two, grey = three, red = four

The FDR suggests Man City, with an average of 2.93, are worst off, although Aston Villa have as many fixtures rated as four (with three) as them. Villa also have some really awkward games rated at three, including a trip to a rejuvenated Manchester United team.

This makes their outside shot at the title challenge even harder, whereas Arsenal – with a clear run of fixtures rated at three and two leading up to the showdown with Man City - can build momentum again.

Arteta’s side have the easiest fixtures, with only one fixture rated as a four. But Man City, as ever, are not far behind.

Etihad test looms large for Arsenal

Arsenal have gone three league games without a win but they will hope to stabilise with two fixtures against the promoted clubs – Leeds United (A) and Sunderland (H) – up next, forming part of a calendar that looks inviting compared to their rivals.

The FDR suggests Arsenal have only one game rated at four remaining: Man City (A) on 18 April. However, fixtures rated at three against Tottenham Hotspur (A), Chelsea (H), Newcastle United (H) and Brighton & Hove Albion (A) could all prove fiendish.

Arsenal's form and fixtures

Their stickiest patch is consecutive London derbies away to Spurs and at home to Chelsea in late February, with the pressure bound to be intense in both meetings.

There is reason for some anxiety beyond those games too, though, especially given that Arsenal’s record against the current top six this season is two wins from eight matches, and a total of nine points. Arsenal have two fixtures against current top-six clubs remaining: Chelsea (H) and City (A).

A home game against Newcastle could also be particularly tricky as the Magpies have won four of their last seven games against Arsenal in all competitions.

Concerns that the Gunners are feeling the heat will be settled one way or another in the fixtures before the showdown in Manchester. But on paper, FDR analysis shows they have a more straightforward route than their rivals.

Man City have to navigate ominous schedule

Should Man City pick up two more points than Arsenal over the next nine rounds then Pep Guardiola’s side would be able to win their head-to-head with the Gunners and go top.

Guardiola will be preoccupied with the nine Premier League games prior to the visit of Arsenal, and for Man City that means one fixture rated at four – Liverpool at Anfield – along with some tough fixtures rated at three, including Spurs and Chelsea both away from home.

Put it all together and their five toughest games look ominous: Arsenal (H), Liverpool (A), Spurs (A), Chelsea (A) and Aston Villa (H). Villa have won three of their last five games against Man City, while Spurs have won three of the last four meetings.

Man City's form and fixtures

Indeed, Man City have only won two of their six Premier League matches against the current top six this season, and earned eight points. They have four more of these to come across a total of three fixtures rated at four, eight fixtures rated at three, and four fixtures rated at two, a more difficult run than either of their title rivals.

In April, Man City travel to play Chelsea at Stamford Bridge just one week before the Arsenal clash, and should they progress, a UEFA Champions League quarter-final first leg will be sandwiched in the middle.

When you add in a final-day game at home to Aston Villa, the path for Man City looks thornier than Arsenal’s.

Aston Villa need to make Villa Park a fortress

Unai Emery continues to dismiss talk of a title challenge and that might partly be because he knows how the fixtures unfold for Villa.

The FDR give them an average of 2.86, more than Arsenal (2.66) and less than Man City (2.93), but since Villa are punching above their weight, they would likely need the FDR to be significantly in their favour to catch up to Arsenal.

Aston Villa's form and fixtures

What’s more, they have to play four of their fellow top-six sides and five of the "Big Six", with many of those matches coming in a crescendo at the end of the campaign when pressure will be at its highest. In their final four, Villa play Spurs (H), Burnley (A), Liverpool (H) and Man City (A).

Overall, Villa have three matches rated at four – Bournemouth (A), Liverpool (H), and Man City (A) – while they also have a trip to Old Trafford and host Chelsea.

It will take impeccable performances in some challenging games for Villa to win the title.