Permutations: What each club need to qualify for European knockout stages

It is crunch time in European club competitions, with just one match remaining in the league phases of the UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League.

With six Premier League teams involved in the Champions League – Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur – and two in the Europa League – Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest – one final round of matches will determine who advances straight to the round of 16 and who requires a knockout phase playoff.

Meanwhile, in the UEFA Conference League, Crystal Palace are already at the playoff stage and have the opportunity this week to take a first-leg lead against Bosnian side Zrinjski Mostar.

Here are all the permutations for the English contingent.

UEFA Champions League

At the conclusion of the league phase, the top eight teams will advance straight to the round of 16. The sides ranked ninth to 24th will contest the knockout phase playoffs, and those who occupy 25th to 36th will be eliminated from European competition.

Arsenal

Position: 1st (21 points)
Goal difference: +18
Final fixture: Kairat Almaty (home), 28 January, 20:00 (all times GMT)

Sit back and relax, Arsenal fans. The Gunners are first in the Champions League table, as the only club with an unblemished record of seven wins from seven matches, and are guaranteed to finish in the top two, regardless of what happens in their final match.

That means they will have the advantage of playing the second leg of each knockout tie at home until the final.

Bayern Munich are the only club able to move above them, but even that would require a big goal-difference swing, which seems unlikely given Arsenal host Kazakhstani side Kairat Almaty, who sit bottom of the table.

Liverpool

Position: 4th (15 points)
Goal difference: +6
Final fixture: Qarabag (home), 28 January, 20:00

Victory over Marseille in their penultimate league-phase match pushed Liverpool up to fourth place – on the same number of points as third-placed Real Madrid – and put them in a strong position to advance directly to the round of 16.

A win at home against Azerbaijani side Qarabag would guarantee them a top-four spot.

A draw also seems likely to keep them in the top eight – and therefore ensure they avoid the knockout phase playoffs – but it would depend on results elsewhere. Defeat would leave things entirely out of their own hands.

Tottenham Hotspur

Position: 5th (14 points)
Goal difference: +8
Final fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt (away), 28 January, 20:00

Spurs' one-point advantage over the mass of eight teams on 13 points could prove decisive as they seek to skip the knockout phase playoffs.

A win over 33rd-place Eintracht Frankfurt would guarantee them a top-eight spot, and they will hope to benefit from the already eliminated German side having nothing to play for. A draw could also be enough, but would require results elsewhere to go their way.

Newcastle United

Position: 7th (13 points)
Goal difference: +10
Final fixture: Paris Saint-Germain (away), 28 January, 20:00

Three of the eight teams on 13 points are from the Premier League: Newcastle, Chelsea and Man City.

They all face the same scenario of needing to match or better the results of the other clubs in that cohort, and hope their goal difference is sufficient to earn them a place in the top eight. Otherwise the knockout phase playoffs await.

Newcastle face a tougher test than Chelsea and Man City, with a trip to reigning European champions Paris Saint-Germain. However, the Magpies were unbeaten in two meetings with PSG in the 2023/24 Champions League group stage, winning one and drawing the other.

Chelsea

Position: 8th (13 points)
Goal difference: +6
Final fixture: Napoli (away), 28 January, 20:00

Chelsea’s predicament is broadly similar to Newcastle’s, albeit without as positive a goal difference. After squeezing past Cypriot outfit Pafos last time out, they travel to the reigning champions of Italy, Napoli, who need at least a point to avoid elimination.

Should goal difference not be sufficient to split teams on the same number of points, the next determinants will be goals scored, away goals, wins and then away wins.

Manchester City

Position: 11th (13 points)
Goal difference: +4
Final fixture: Galatasaray (home), 28 January, 20:00

Man City’s shock defeat at Bodo/Glimt means they are far from certain of finishing in the top eight. They host a Galatasaray side who beat Liverpool earlier in the season and sit firmly mid-table.

Given their goal difference is inferior to most teams on 13 points, Pep Guardiola’s team may well find themselves needing to win by a wide margin to avoid the knockout phase playoffs. A draw may well prove insufficient.

UEFA Europa League

As with the Champions League, the top eight teams in the league phase will advance straight to the round of 16, the teams ranked ninth to 24th will contest the knockout phase playoffs, and those who occupy 25th to 36th will be eliminated from European competition.

Aston Villa

Position: 2nd (18 points)
Goal difference: +7
Final fixture: Red Bull Salzburg (home), 29 January, 20:00

It is job done for Villa, who are one of only two teams, alongside league-phase leaders Lyon, to be guaranteed a place in the Europa League's round of 16.

That certainty came courtesy of Villa's victory over Fenerbahce in their penultimate game, which means they have the luxury of resting players for their final match at home to Red Bull Salzburg, who must win and need an unlikely set of results elsewhere if they are to stay in the competition.

Nottingham Forest

Position: 16th (11 points)
Goal difference: +4
Final fixture: Ferencvaros (home), 29 January, 20:00

Defeat in a low-quality match against Braga last time out all but ended Forest’s aspirations of advancing directly to the round of 16.

Although mathematically possible, progress would require them to beat Ferencvaros, managed by former Premier League striker Robbie Keane, in their final outing and for seven teams above them to either lose or drop sufficient points.

Forest's attention will more likely be on securing a top-16 finish, as teams placed ninth to 16th play the second legs of their knockout phase playoff ties at home. Regardless of the result, Sean Dyche's side are guaranteed a knockout match.

UEFA Conference League

With only six league-phase fixtures compared to eight in the other European competitions, the Conference League is now at the knockout stage.

Crystal Palace

A draw in their final league fixture in December meant Palace finished outside the top eight in the Conference League standings.

After ending up in 10th place, they now face Zrinjski Mostar in a two-legged knockout phase playoff.

The first leg will take place on 19 February and the return leg, at Selhurst Park, is on 26 February.