Could Wolves revival lead to the GREATEST escape?

Football writer Adrian Clarke identifies the key players, team tactics and where matches could be won and lost in Matchweek 22.

Team analysis: Wolverhampton Wanderers

A resurgent Wolverhampton Wanderers side will entertain Newcastle United this weekend full of new-found optimism having collected five points from their last three matches.  

They couldn’t stay up, could they? 

With 14 points to make up on 17th-placed Nottingham Forest with just 17 matches left to play, that scenario feels extremely unlikely.

However, the green shoots of recovery are there for all to see, so faint hopes remain that this rejuvenated side can pull off a miracle.

Opta rank them 10th in the Premier League for Expected Goals Against (xGA), with 29.42, and they are 18th rather than 20th for Expected Goals (xG), with 19.71.

Nonetheless, the harsh reality is that no team have ever recovered from this far behind to stay up.

Wolves have five fewer points after 21 games than West Bromwich Albion in 2004/05, who lay claim to the most memorable escape act of the Premier League era.

Premier League teams; fewest points after 21 matches to avoid relegation

For now, Wolves they should just focus on maintaining their recent form and see where it takes them.

Playing well of late, they can give Newcastle a stern examination.

Why have Wolves improved?

In recent weeks Wolves head coach Rob Edwards has rolled the dice by selecting a more enterprising central-midfield unit. 

In a 3-5-2 set-up he has begun using Joao Gomes as his sole pivot, flanked either side by teenage sensation Mateus Mane and Colombian Jhon Arias.

Previously, defensive specialist Andre had started 15 of the first 18 Premier League games.

Mane and Arias are both attacking by nature and have added athleticism as well as a welcome dash of adventure as box-to-box dynamos.  

It would be a surprise if Edwards does not stick with them for the clash at home to Newcastle, given they have already caused problems against Manchester United, West Ham United and Everton.

Arias’s goal in a key 3-0 win against the Hammers typified what this pair bring.  

Initially, 18-year-old Mane turned Soungoutou Magassa brilliantly by receiving the ball on his back foot to open up space to run into.

From there the youngster fed the ball wide to Hwang Hee-chan, who cut it back intelligently for Arias, who had made a forceful run from deep.

While Hwang was out wide, Arias made a run into the box and was rewarded with a goal.  

With Hwang given licence to roam all over the opposition half to link play and drag markers with him, both Mane and Arias are asked to drive into the final third as often as possible.

Nothing came of this move down the right, but both midfielders joined striker Tolu Arokodare inside the box.

Until the past few weeks Arias had almost exclusively been used in forward areas by Edwards and predecessor Vitor Pereira.  

All of his 237 minutes as a right-sided central midfielder (see circled below) have come in the last three matches.  

One of the secrets to Wolves' success is the freedom Edwards is handing them when they have possession.  

While Mane is stationed to the left and Arias to the right when the team don't have possession, these touch maps tell the story of two players who can largely go wherever they please.

What else is different? 

Wolves have largely been a back-three outfit all season, using it in 17 of their 21 matches.  

We have seen Wolves utilise a 3-4-3 and 3-4-2-1 formation, but they have mainly deployed a 3-5-2 this season (in nine games).

That shape is in place at the moment, but within the same framework we have seen some improvements.

They are covering more distance and working harder as a collective, but it has been noticeable how well Edwards’ side have retreated into their shape too.

Wolves are pressing less vigorously, forcing fewer high turnovers and opponents are having to make more passes per defensive action (PPDA) too.

By showing better organisation in a lower block, Wolves are facing fewer shots and big opportunities.  

Wolves' stats per match

Scroll across to see the full table on mobile

Going forward the numbers are rising in the right direction too, albeit modestly.  

What we have seen is better movement and greater positional rotation in forward areas.

Mane’s wonderful goal at Everton saw Jorgen Strand Larsen come short to receive a pass, dragging a centre-back with him. 

This created an inviting hole for Wolves’ talented teenager to surge into, and from a great first touch that continued his momentum he despatched a fine strike from the edge of the box.

Watch Mane's goal v Everton

Who is Wolves' new star Mane?

Former Rochdale academy star Mane has been at Molineux for less than two years, but since breaking through to the first team he has blown Wolves fans away with his talent.

The 18-year-old - who has chosen to represent England at junior level rather than his country of birth Portugal – has regularly drawn gasps of admiration from the crowd.

Using body swerves, quick feet and sharp turns to turn opponents inside out, Wolves have unearthed a gem who can make something happen in the blink of an eye.  

In the final clip of the video below, you can see how an outrageous turn between two West Ham players helped him create space for a shot on target.  

Watch Mane's performance v West Ham

After scoring from outside the box against West Ham and Everton, both from ball carries, he is sure to be a marked man when they face Newcastle.  

His attacking stats are impressive for a player who has featured for just 447 minutes.  

Mane's attacking stats this season

How Arokodare has taken Strand Larsen’s spot

Former Genk centre-forward Arokodare has caught the eye of late with some lively performances.  

He scored against Arsenal from Mane’s terrific cross and has looked a major aerial threat in a lot of his recent appearances.  

Arokodare's goal v Arsenal

He has effectively taken Strand Larsen’s place, although the Norwegian did score a hat-trick against Shrewsbury Town last weekend in the FA Cup.  

The reason Arokodare has been preferred is his vastly superior physical presence.  

He may have scored just once, but across a wide variety of attacking metrics the Nigerian emphatically outperforms Strand Larsen.  

Arokodare v Strand Larsen stats per 90min