Top three widen gap on day of fine margins in title race

Football writer Sam Cunningham explains the state of play in the Premier League title race, following narrow victories for all of the leading contenders.

The Premier League's top three teams all emerged unscathed - just about - with three points each on a day of fine margins, late winners and plenty of drama.

All three won 2-1 in similarly tight fashion.

Manchester City relied on a late winner from Rayan Cherki at Nottingham Forest, Arsenal required a fantastic late save from David Raya to secure the win against Brighton and Hove Albion, and Aston Villa came from behind to beat Chelsea with two goals from substitute Ollie Watkins. 

Villa equalled a club record 11 consecutive wins – set in 1897 and repeated in 1914 – but to extend that run, they will have to beat Arsenal in what is set to be an epic encounter on Tuesday evening.

If Villa can defeat the Gunners for the second time this month, they will move level on points with their opponents and add further intrigue to what would otherwise be a familiar tale at the top: Man City manager Pep Guardiola fighting for the title against his former assistant and protegee Mikel Arteta, the Arsenal manager.

For a brief period on Saturday, Guardiola's men were in pole position.

Arsenal went on to reclaim top spot but Arteta is yet to find what it takes to cross the finish line in first place. Man City are now breathing heavily down their necks and turning up the heat.

But Villa can’t be discounted – the significant win against Chelsea was their eighth in a row in the Premier League, as well as matching that all-competitions record for the club.

For an hour, it looked as though Villa’s winning run would come to an end.

Indeed, as the "match momentum" chart below highlights, Chelsea (shown in pink) were creating the more threatening situations for the vast majority of the match.

But Watkins equalised just after the hour-mark, then struck the winner in the 84th minute.

The win kept Unai Emery's men in the hunt and given it was at the expense of Chelsea, who started the day in fourth place, it moved the top three sides seven points clear of the rest of the pack.

For all Villa’s sensational performances, Man City have themselves won eight successive matches in all competitions, scoring 23 times – almost three goals per game. Perhaps even more ominously, since the start of November they have won 24 of 27 points – only dropping points in defeat to Newcastle United.

They could have dropped some more at Forest - Morgan Gibbs-White missed a glorious chance early on in the sort of game Guardiola believes Man City would have lost last season.

This season, Guardiola smells something special in the air – senses a strong aura about his squad that has a familiar feel to it.

"Winter time, Nottingham Forest away… I know the memory is weak, but when we won one of the six Premier Leagues, this type of game happened a lot," Guardiola told Manchester City’s website.

Guardiola explained he has started to spot signs of his many previous title-winning teams; not only at Man City, but Barcelona and Bayern Munich, too.

"The body language, how we celebrated, the connection with the fans," he said. "The people feel the team want to do it and fight for each other."

It was during the FIFA Club World Cup, played in the United States this summer, that Guardiola spoke to his staff about the club’s deep-lying issues and set in motion a new process to turn the team around.

Against Forest, there was evidence of Guardiola rediscovering the tactical brilliance that has made him one of the game’s great managers.

After not a single shot on target in the first half, Guardiola felt too many of his players were sitting behind the ball and not finding pockets of space.

He made tweaks at the break and enjoyed a little smile when they took the lead less than three minutes into the second half: Cherki finding one pocket and feeding Tijjani Reijnders in another to finish.

Forest equalised – Omari Hutchinson scoring his first goal since a club-record move in the summer – but Cherki scored the winner with seven minutes remaining.

For their part, Arsenal, kicking off a few hours later under increased pressure, stood up to the test.

The Gunners battered Brighton’s goal in the first half – taking 15 shots, including five on target – but carried only a slender one-goal lead into the break, through Martin Odegaard's first league goal of the season.

Odegaard became Arsenal’s 12th different goalscorer in the Premier League this season. No individual has scored prolifically – Viktor Gyokeres leads the way with five, while Bukayo Saka, Eberechi Eze, Leandro Trossard have contributed four each – but spreading the goals will minimise the impact of one player dropping form or getting injured.

What proved to be their winning goal was actually scored by a Brighton player, Georginio Rutter turning Declan Rice’s corner into his own net. Diego Gomez then pulled one back for the Seagulls, so when Raya flicked Yankuba Minteh's shot away from the top corner, it was a vital intervention.

Arteta will be pleased his side have now ground out three straight Premier League wins since a disappointing and potentially derailing defeat to Villa at the start of December, all the while under pressure from Man City and with injuries, particularly in defence, complicating team selection.

Rice was forced to play as a makeshift right-back against Brighton, due to Jurrien Timber’s injury and Riccardo Calafiori withdrawing from the warm-up. Arteta asked Rice 48 hours before the match if he would step in if necessary and Rice immediately agreed.

"When you look across the league the margins are very small, we are playing every few days and asking players to play in positions they have never played before, so I'm really happy," Arteta told BBC Sport.

"The players always have to be ready. In the warm-up there can be something and you have to be in the right mental space.

"That's what I love about the team, with everything we're going through, the way we react and want to take the next step is brilliant to watch."

There was also a boost with centre-back Gabriel Magalhaes making his first Arsenal appearance in almost two months, coming off the bench.

Arteta admitted they "had to rush him a little bit", but the defender came through the match comfortably.

And speaking of key players returning, Rodri was back on the bench for Man City.

It seems things will only get harder for Villa, whose head coach insisted he won’t consider them to be in the title race until they have played 34 games.

"There is still another 20 matches to play," said Emery.

And the next one of those could not be any bigger. Away to the Premier League leaders on Tuesday night.