Football writer Adrian Clarke identifies the key players, team tactics and where matches could be won and lost in Matchweek 18.
Player analysis: Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United)
For the first time this season, Man Utd will go into a Premier League match without Fernandes when host face Newcastle United on Boxing Day.
Their talismanic captain has a hamstring injury and his absence is likely to have a considerable impact on Ruben Amorim’s side.
A very rare absence
Remarkably, it is only the second time Fernandes has missed a Premier League fixture due to injury in almost six years at the club.
Resilient and reliable, the only time the Portuguese previously had to sit out matches (two) for Man Utd was due to a minor knee injury in May 2024.
He was also absent for one match with flu, all the way back in March 2022. Fernandes' availability has been nothing short of phenomenal.
In fact, since he arrived in English football in January 2020, nobody has missed fewer matches, with only Everton’s James Tarkowski and Jordan Pickford making more starts.
Most PL appearances and starts since January 2020
| Appearances | Starts | ||
| Fernandes (MUN) | 212 | Tarkowski (EVE) | 211 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tarkowski (EVE) | 211 | Pickford (EVE) | 210 |
| Pickford (EVE) | 210 | Fernandes (MUN) | 208 |
| Bowen (WHU) | 210 | Rice (ARS) | 203 |
| Rice (ARS) | 209 | Martinez (AVL) | 202 |
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How do Man Utd fare without Fernandes?
What will be a concern for Amorim is how poor his side’s record is without Fernandes.
They have lost the last four league games he has missed, failing to score in three of them, so it is clearly a huge blow to be without him for The Festive Fixtures.
Last December’s 2-0 loss to Newcastle was the last time Fernandes was not in Man Utd's matchday squad for a Premier League game.
On that occasion, Man Utd were all at sea without Fernandes, mustering just a single shot on target during a largely hapless performance.
How Man Utd have performed in PL without Fernandes
| Date | Absence reason | Result |
| 23 May 2021 | Rested | WOL 1-2 MUN (W) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2021 | Suspended | MUN 3-1 BUR (W) |
| 12 Mar 2022 | Ill | MUN 3-2 TOT (W) |
| 6 Nov 2022 | Suspended | AVL 3-1 MUN (L) |
| 17 Dec 2023 | Suspended | LIV 0-0 MUN (D) |
| 6 May 2024 | Knee injury | CRY 4-0 MUN (L) |
| 12 May 2024 | Knee injury | MUN 0-1 ARS (L) |
| 30 Dec 2024 | Suspended | MUN 0-2 NEW (L) |
| 4 May 2025 | Unused sub | BRE 4-3 MUN (L) |
When you add in the four matches Fernandes has started from the bench (one win, three losses), it is clear how much they have struggled without him.
In the last eight Premier League matches he has either missed completely, or come off the bench in, Man Utd have lost seven and drawn one.
They also failed to score in six of those encounters.
Others will have to step up
Fernandes is not the only absentee in Man Utd's attacking ranks.
Bryan Mbeumo and Amad are also missing due to their commitments at the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON).
Those three players are the most creative at Amorim’s disposal, so it is vital that team-mates raise their game.
Fernandes leads the way at United for Expected Goals (xG), chances created and big chances created, with many of those opportunities stemming from his corners and free-kicks.
So, it will be interesting to see who takes over his set-piece duties in the coming weeks.
Man Utd's creativity stats PL 25/26
| Expected Goals | Chances created | Big chances created | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernandes | 7 | Fernandes | 51 | Fernandes | 8 |
| Mbeumo | 5.55 | Amad | 28 | Amad | 4 |
| Cunha | 4.34 | Mbeumo | 26 | Dorgu | 4 |
| Amad | 3.67 | Cunha | 17 | Mbeumo | 3 |
| Casemiro | 2.57 | Dalot | 15 | Three players | 2 |
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Responsibly on Cunha
A lot will rest on Matheus Cunha’s shoulders, who will need to hit a purple patch of form.
The 26-year-old has impressed recently, delivering two goals and one assist across his last three appearances.
He made a 50-yard run to be in the right place when AFC Bournemouth’s defence gifted him a chance in that memorable 4-4 draw at Old Trafford in Matchweek 16.
And he was part of a successful Man Utd press last time out at Aston Villa, pouncing on a Matty Cash error to curl home superbly (below) from a tight angle.
This shot and shot assist map from Cunha’s 14 Premier League appearances since joining from Wolverhampton Wanderers highlights how impactful he can be in and around the penalty area.
Likely filling one of the twin No 10 roles, it is vital he steps up during Fernandes’ rehabilitation period.
How will Amorim's side line up?
While there is a slim chance Matthijs de Ligt will return from a back problem, we do know that Casemiro will step back into the side after serving a ban.
With Manuel Ugarte struggling against Villa, that swap feels like a natural one for the visit of Newcastle.
In defence we may also see a first start of the campaign for fit-again Lisandro Martinez. He filled the central midfield void when Fernandes went off at Villa Park, but it is more likely he features in the back three against Newcastle, adding much-needed experience.
One of Man Utd's young centre-backs, Ayden Heaven or Leny Yoro, could miss out.
The main talking point surrounds the make-up of Amorim's "box of four" in central midfield.
If Casemiro and Cunha are locked in, what options does the head coach have at his disposal?
If Kobbie Mainoo has recovered in time from a knock that ruled him out of the last match, Amorim could hand the England international a rare start.
He has spoken several times about how Mainoo is considered Fernandes’ understudy, but the younger player is still rated a fitness doubt.
If Mainoo plays, Mason Mount would occupy a No 10 role with Cunha.
If Mainoo doesn’t recover from a calf issue in time, Mount may be the best like-for-like replacement for Fernandes. He has played in central midfield many times and will offer support to the front three with forward runs.
This would give Amorim the opportunity to recall Joshua Zirkzee in a No 10 slot and avoid having to use a less mobile midfield pairing of Casemiro and Ugarte.
When you study the positions Mount naturally takes up, often to the left of centre, it is similar to the areas Fernandes likes to occupy.
It feels as if this injury has opened the door for the former Chelsea star to lay down his credentials for this key position.
Man Utd played well in their defeat to Villa, producing more shots than Unai Emery’s side in a confident, often free-flowing display.
Losing Fernandes for the visit of Newcastle will be problematic though. Man Utd's captain, a tremendous all-rounder, is a very hard man to replace.