Football writer Alex Keble analyses where this weekend's fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Will Rogers and Buendia find gaps in Amorim's midfield?
- Can Howe or Maresca get a pressure-easing victory in this pivotal game?
- Will Salah-less Liverpool cause serious damage to Frank's Spurs project?
- Could Everton's absentees allow Arsenal to improve on their away record?
- Can Bournemouth use energy from Old Trafford draw to end their winless run?
- Will Cherki add to a familiar feeling of West Ham dread at the Etihad?
- Can Hurzeler finally get Brighton a December win and consolidate over winter?
- Will Wolves get a better chance to win at Molineux all season?
- Which of Calvert-Lewin or Mateta will come out on top?
- Can Forest get the win that would drag Fulham into trouble?
Will Rogers and Buendia find gaps in Amorim's midfield?
Ruben Amorim’s decision to move to a back four during Monday's match against AFC Bournemouth is a huge moment, no matter what the Manchester United head coach chooses to do next.
The genie is out of the bottle. Excel with a back four, and pundits will say "I told you so," undermining Amorim's tactical authority as they wonder why he was stubbornly resistant for so long.
Continue to struggle with a back three and the cries for a back four will be louder than ever, given that the red line has already been crossed.
It certainly adds intrigue to Sunday's visit to Villa Park, although not as much as the extraordinarily chaotic nature of Man Utd's 4-4 draw with Bournemouth.
It was a game defined by the enormous holes in an over-stretched two-man central midfield (whether in a 3-4-3 or, later in the match, a 4-2-4), as it has been so many times, such as in the 2-2 draw at Tottenham Hotspur, as reflected below.
This is what Villa head coach Unai Emery will have spent the week focusing on. Emiliano Buendia and Morgan Rogers (inverting from the left wing) will play together in the No 10 position for Aston Villa, in theory overwhelming a Man Utd midfield that is without the suspended Casemiro.
Rogers has been involved in eight goals in his last 11 Premier League matches, while Ollie Watkins’ brace against Brighton & Hove Albion in his last outing at Villa Park suggests he can squeeze through the middle of Man Utd's central defenders – as Bournemouth did for two of their four goals on Monday.
However, Man Utd’s swarming attack was brilliant against the Cherries, and although Villa won't lean in like Andoni Iraola's side did, they could easily get caught by their visitors' high press.
From every tactical angle, there will be spaces, mistakes, and high-quality chances.
Can Howe or Maresca get a pressure-easing victory in this pivotal game?
Arguably one of the most important Premier League matches of the weekend is at St James' Park, where both Newcastle United and Chelsea are in a difficult patch of form, and in need of a big result to start their Festive Fixtures.
There is no doubt Newcastle have been improving recently but the 1-0 defeat at Sunderland last weekend could be seriously damaging.
Newcastle have conceded in each of their last nine Premier League matches and have never previously gone 10 in a row without a clean sheet under Eddie Howe. They are averaging 12.2 shots per game and 4.31 shots on target per match in the Premier League this season, both their lowest averages under the current head coach.
Howe’s side need to get straight back on the horse.
Chelsea, on the other hand, are just about clinging on in the title race following last weekend's 2-0 victory against Everton, but further setbacks could be fatal. They play Villa (A), Bournemouth (H) and Manchester City (A) next, too.
This is a must-win game for both clubs.
Chelsea's next PL fixtures
Will Salah-less Liverpool cause serious damage to Frank’s Spurs project?
Tottenham Hotspur’s 3-0 defeat at Nottingham Forest last weekend felt particularly damaging in terms of result, performance, and league position.
Spurs have won just one of their last seven Premier League matches and haven’t won consecutive games in the competition since the first two fixtures of the campaign. They are also now four points behind Sunderland in eighth - and in danger of being caught in the wrong half when the table eventually splits.
Usually for a club in trouble, hosting a "Big Six" side is either bad luck or an opportunity, depending on how you choose to look at it. But this really does look like unfortunate timing for Thomas Frank, who faces Liverpool just as they are ramping back up.
Liverpool are undefeated in five matches in all competitions and have kept back-to-back clean sheets, their performances unaffected by Mohamed Salah's absence in the starting line-up.
Now he is away with Egypt at the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON), Liverpool can forget about the Salah saga and focus on climbing back towards the UEFA Champions League places.
They will fancy their chances. We know the Spurs defence is leaky, we know Hugo Ekitike is in excellent form (four goals in two games), and we know this is historically a high-scoring fixture.
Liverpool v Spurs is the top-scoring fixture in Premier League history with 206 goals in total - 21 have been scored in the last three league meetings, an average of seven per game.
Could Everton's absentees allow Arsenal to improve on their away record?
Absentees mean Everton face a very difficult festive period. Iliman Ndiaye is away on AFCON duty while Jack Grealish and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall have picked up injuries, meaning all three of the playmakers supporting the Everton striker will be absent for the visit of Arsenal.
Dwight McNeil and Tyler Dibling will be called upon in their place, which does at least mean a more direct and fast-paced front line. Maybe that will be beneficial for counter-attacking an Arsenal side still missing key players in defence.
Arsenal have not won any of their last three away matches in the Premier League and are in desperate need of improving that record to stay above Man City over the holiday period.
If they cannot get past an Everton side with so many changes to their attack, and missing Idrissa Gueye in midfield due to AFCON, serious questions will be asked.
Arsenal have won just one of their last seven visits to Everton and have conceded the first goal in five of their last seven Premier League away fixtures, including each of the last three.
Can Bournemouth use energy from Old Trafford draw to end their winless run?
Bournemouth have now gone seven Premier League matches without victory, a run that has emphatically halted their strong start to the season. Iraola’s side are now down in 13th spot.
Up until this week, their form has suggested fatigue but we can’t say that after their frantic 4-4 draw at Man Utd, a performance that proved they have the energy and the fight to improve their league position.
Bournemouth must carry momentum from that match at Old Trafford into Saturday, when they face a leaky Burnley defence that will be blown away by a performance as sharp as the one against Man Utd.
Burnley have lost their last seven Premier League matches and have conceded 23 goals in eight away from home, averaging almost three per 90. They have conceded more shots (247), more shots on target (88) and have a higher Expected Goals against (xGA) tally (33.4) than any other side in the Premier League this season.
Bournemouth will be confident. After the winless streak they’ve suffered, Iraola’s side cannot afford anything less than three points.
Will Cherki add to a familiar feeling of West Ham dread at the Etihad?
West Ham United fans never look forward to this one.
Man City have won their last five Premier League matches against West Ham, scoring at least three goals each time, while Pep Guardiola has faced the Hammers more often without losing than he has any other opponent, winning 17 times and drawing three from 20 encounters.
What’s more, remarkably, Man City have lost none of their last 46 Premier League home matches against sides starting the day in the relegation zone, winning all but four.
Unfortunately for the visitors, there is little evidence to suggest that record will change. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side looked porous in their 3-2 home defeat to Villa last weekend, which is hardly ideal preparation for facing Erling Haaland, Rayan Cherki and Phil Foden.
Haaland has scored nine Premier League goals against West Ham, only netting more in his meetings with Wolverhampton Wanderers. Cherki has assisted five goals in his last four home Premier League appearances despite playing just 223 minutes. Foden has netted six goals in his last six games in all competitions.
This is all very bad news for West Ham, who, if they fail to win this match, are guaranteed to be in the relegation zone at Christmas.
Can Hurzeler finally get Brighton a December win and consolidate over winter?
Brighton are winless in their last nine Premier League matches in December (D5 L4) since beating Spurs 4-2 in 2023. Only in April (19.4 per cent) do they have a lower win rate in the Premier League than they do in December (20.8 per cent).
That could just be a statistical quirk, although since this is the time of year that tiredness sets in, it might reflect the high-energy football Brighton play with a small squad.
A home match against Sunderland is a good opportunity to correct their record. Not only have the visitors won only two of their eight away Premier League games this season, they have six players away on AFCON duty.
Here is a chance, then, for Brighton to get three points and begin to consolidate their position in the league table. Matches against West Ham (A) and Burnley (H) give Fabian Hurzeler’s side the opportunity to pick up plenty of points and pull away in the top half.
Brighton's next PL fixtures
Will Wolves get a better chance to win at Molineux all season?
If not now, when?
Wolves have lost each of their last nine Premier League games, their longest losing run in their league history, and are on just two points from 16 games, on course to set a new record low.
But this could be the weekend they begin some sort of revival, of pride if nothing else. Wolves (17) are the only team who have lost more away Premier League matches than Brentford (15) since the start of last season.
Alarmingly, Wolves have already played most of their home games against sides currently in the bottom six. If they cannot get past a Brentford side that hasn’t won any of their last four in all competitions - scoring just once in that time - then Wolves supporters might begin to worry if the first Premier League victory is going to come in 2025/26.
Which of Calvert-Lewin or Mateta will come out on top?
An interesting statistic revealed by Opta frames Saturday’s game at Elland Road: both Crystal Palace’s Jean-Philippe Mateta and Leeds United’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin have scored four non-penalty goals in the Premier League this season, with all of them coming from first-time shots. No other players who have converted all of their first-time shots have scored as many goals.
In what could be a tight and low-scoring game, the first-time finishing of Mateta and Calvert-Lewin may prove the difference between the sides.
Calvert-Lewin has scored in four consecutive Premier League matches, a run that has helped Leeds' conversion rate rise to 14.3 per cent from 7.6 per cent before the November international break.
The former Everton forward also has five goals in 13 Premier League appearances against Palace, only scoring more against Newcastle (six).
All of those numbers perhaps give Leeds the edge, especially as Daniel Farke's side are unbeaten in three and Palace star Ismaila Sarr is away on international duty.
Can Forest get the win that would drag Fulham into trouble?
Fulham have lost their last two Premier League home matches and, despite taking nine points from their last five games, are surprisingly close to the bottom three.
Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest have achieved four wins in their last six Premier League matches, more than they did in their previous 18, and have scored at least three goals in three of their eight Premier League games under Sean Dyche.
A Forest victory at Craven Cottage, then, would begin to shift the balance between these two teams, dragging Fulham towards the relegation zone as their visitors leapfrog above them.