Is it time to buy Ekitike in Fantasy?

Hugo Ekitike (£8.6m) is in red-hot form, having netted four goals in his last two Premier League starts. Here, The Scout looks at whether now is a good time for managers in Fantasy Premier League to invest in the Liverpool forward.

Why is Ekitike now starting for Liverpool?

Recent injuries to Cody Gakpo (£7.4m) and Alexander Isak (£10.3m), added to the departure of Mohamed Salah (£14.0m) for the African Cup of Nations (AFCON), have helped Ekitike re-establish himself as a regular starter for Liverpool.

Arne Slot has benched Salah in each of the last four Gameweeks, with the Egyptian now unavailable in Fantasy due to international commitments.

Gakpo, meanwhile, had started 13 of the Reds’ first 15 matches but is now sidelined with a muscle problem for an unknown period, and Isak himself has only recently returned from injury. 

Although Ekitike is known for his versatility and is equally adept off the left flank, he has now started as a forward in each of the Reds’ last three matches in all competitions.

Slot utilised his usual 4-2-3-1 formation in both those league matches against Leeds United and Brighton & Hove Albion.

But in their UEFA Champions League match with Internazionale Milano last midweek, the Dutchman opted for a midfield diamond system with Ekitike partnered by Isak in a front two.

While he subsequently benched Isak against Brighton, Slot's comments prior to the Seagulls' clash indicate it won't be the last time the pair play up front together.

"What we all saw, which is normal, is the more they play, the more they will adapt and the better they will co-operate," Slot said.

"It's the second time they have played together and I think we will see more of this in the future."

How does Ekitike compare with other forwards in Fantasy?

Having made five of his 15 appearances this season as a substitute, Ekitike sits just fourth among forwards on 68 points.

And as the table below shows, he also ranks fourth behind the same trio, Erling Haaland (£15.0m), Igor Thiago (£7.2m) and Jarrod Bowen (£7.5m), for points per match, with an average of 4.5.

But when it comes to points per start (pps), the Liverpool star's displays suggest he is among the best forwards.

Indeed, his 6.3pps is bettered only by the 8.4pps of Haaland, with all of the former's attacking returns this season  - seven goals and an assist - coming in the 10 matches he has started. 

While there's no doubt that forwards in general have disappointed and many managers have moved to a 3-5-2 formation as a result, Ekitike's improved output certainly offers plenty of encouragement for those with a three-man frontline. 

Top-scoring forwards in Fantasy

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Why is Ektike scoring more?

A delve into Ekitike's goal threat data shows a remarkable improvement of late.

Over his last two matches, he has had 11 shots in the box and four big chances, situations where a player is expected to score.

On both counts, that matches his entire totals over the first 14 Gameweeks.

Unsurprisingly, those numbers are both league-highs across Gameweeks 15-16, while the Frenchman's minutes per shot sped up by over three times, from 40.8 to 13.0. 

Ekitike's attacking stats compared

Does he have good fixtures?

There's a very good reason so many managers are bringing in Ekitike, with Liverpool on the verge of three very favourable matches which could bring in major hauls.

Following their visit to Tottenham Hotspur this weekend, Slot's side play at home to three of the bottom four - Wolverhampton Wanderers, Leeds and Burnley - in a five-match spell over Gameweeks 18-22.

According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), where the difficulty of each fixture is ranked from one to five - with one being the easiest possible match and five being the hardest -  all three of those matches score only two. 

Granted, a visit to Arsenal in Gameweek 21 is not ideal, yet the north London side are in their worst defensive form of the season and have one clean sheet in their last six attempts. 

Liverpool's fixtures from GW18

Is Ekitike worth captaining?

A breakdown of Ekitike's starts helps to show his potential for huge hauls. 

Although he has blanked in five of those 10 matches - a success rate of 50 per cent - three of them were against the current top three - Arsenal in Gameweek 3, Aston Villa in Gameweek 10 and Manchester City in Gameweek 11.

In the five matches in which he has scored or assisted, he has produced at least one goal and eight points, delivering three sets of double-figure returns. 

How Ekitike has performed in each of his starts

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By using just two statistics - “success rate” and “points per match returned” - the graph below helps to show that Ekitike is keeping very elite company this season.

“Success rate” (shown along the bottom of the graph) is simply the percentage of matches in which a player has earned a Fantasy “return”. 

For the purpose of this analysis, goals, assists, bonus points and defensive contribution points are regarded as a “return”. 

“Points per match returned” (shown on the left side of the graph) is the average FPL points tally that each player has scored in the matches where they have achieved one or more returns.

The graph shows all midfielders and forward with a minimum 10 starts and a success rate of at least 40 per cent.

Only THREE of them have maintained an average in excess of 10 points per successful appearance - Haaland, Phil Foden (£8.8m) and Ekitike. 

Indeed, it's immediately noticeable just how similar in profile Ekitike and Foden have been as Fantasy assets. 

Foden has scored or assisted in six of his 13 starts, which is a 46.2 per cent success rate, while Ekitike's success rate is 50 per cent, the Frenchman having scored in five of his 10 outings. 

Foden amassed 71 points over those six successful appearances, which equates to 11.8 points per match returned.

And Ekitike has more or less matched that - he's earned 54 points across his five successful appearances, an average of 10.8.

Bearing in mind that Foden has recently stormed to the top of the midfielder standings, Ekitike - as a regular starter - has the form and fixtures to also continue bringing in more huge returns in the coming period.

Haaland, Foden and Ekitike stats compared

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