Kings of long-range goals: Aston Villa defying distance and gravity

Aston Villa are on course to break the record for the most goals scored from outside the box in a Premier League season. Opta Analyst's Ryan Benson looks at how such efficiency has helped Villa turn their campaign around.

Aston Villa did it again.

Their 1-0 West Midlands derby win on Sunday over Wolverhampton Wanderers may not have been a classic, nor did it yield a vintage performance from Unai Emery’s team, but they got the job done to continue their remarkable climb up the Premier League table.

What makes Villa’s ascent to fourth “remarkable” isn’t just the fact they’re that high – after all, they’ve one of the Premier League’s best managers and a talented squad. But the manner of their climb has them defying convention, and the weekend’s win was a prime example.

In the 67th minute at Villa Park, John McGinn found Boubacar Kamara just outside the Wolves box, and the Frenchman took a touch before picking out the top-right corner with his left foot.

Watch Kamara's goal from pitchside

It was a gorgeous strike worthy of winning any match and it proved decisive for Villa, who were otherwise functional without being spectacular. Kamara acknowledged as much himself, telling VillaTV: “Sometimes you win without playing good, but the important thing is the three points.”

Quite right. Villa may not have generally blown teams away this season, but they’ve come upon a formula that’s working for them: shoot on sight.

Kamara’s effort was Villa’s ninth Premier League goal from outside the box this season, which makes them a fascinating anomaly.

Watch EVERY Aston Villa long-range goal this season so far

Let’s not forget, modern football is analysed to an almost forensic degree. Clubs employ data analysts and scientists in an attempt to enhance performances and efficiency, while a wider adoption of Expected Goals (xG) as a trusted metric has influenced where teams shoot from.

For instance, it might be tempting to think we’re seeing a resurgence in long-range shooting across the board in the Premier League, considering we saw Richarlison, Tyler Adams and Harry Wilson all score from more than 35 metres out in the second half of November.

However, excluding free-kicks and penalties, the average shot (14.9 metres) and goal (9.8 metres) distances in 2025/26 are the lowest (or joint-lowest) on record since this data became available (2006/07).

But Villa are laughing in the face of xG. Their 16 goals have come from just 11.88xG, which is the second-lowest after Burnley (9.69xG). The average xG of all Villa's shots in the league this season (0.08) is the lowest of the top-flight 20 clubs.

Essentially, it means Villa aren’t regularly creating clear-cut goalscoring opportunities – or at least they aren’t finding openings that resonate as “high value” with xG models. But with their players on fire from distance, it doesn’t appear to be hindering them.

The "Expected Points" table is powered by xG from shots taken and shots faced. It’s not perfect as xG doesn’t take various factors into account, such as game state, sustained periods of dominance or chances that don’t include an actual shot. However, it provides us with a decent barometer of how teams are faring in terms of chance creation and chance prevention.

It puts Villa way down in 19th, whereas in the actual table they are fourth. It’s an incredible difference.

This, then, partly outlines the impact of Villa’s excellence from distance because, usually, long-range shots = low xG; only for them, long-range shots = a joker in the pack. So, just how unusual is their effectiveness from distance?

Well, ahead of the round of midweek Premier League fixtures, Villa are averaging 0.69 goals from outside the box per match. If they were to maintain that frequency over the course of the full campaign, they would comfortably break the record for the most goals scored from outside the area in a single season (since 2003/04).

PL club with most goals scored outside pen. area since 03/04

* Games played so far

That record is held by Chelsea, who in 2006/07 scored 23 such goals in the Premier League at a rate of 0.61 per game.

Similarly, Villa's goals (excluding free-kicks and penalties) have been scored from an average of 16.4m – the record over a full season (Opta have this recorded since 2006/07) is 13.9m (Manchester City in 2006/07).

Ave. distance of PL goals scored outside pen. area since 06/07

*Games played so far

Of course, we must remember we are working with small sample sizes in comparison with full seasons, which is probably best highlighted by the fact Villa (16 per cent), AFC Bournemouth and West Ham (both 10 per cent) and Tottenham Hotspur (eight per cent) are in the top seven all time for shot-conversion rate outside the box in a single-season this campaign. There’s a lot of time for that to change, but Villa’s output still makes for intriguing viewing.

In pretty much any other context, Villa’s xG figures might be seen as alarming. They are averaging 0.91xG per game in the league this season – only 16 teams since 2012/13 have recorded 0.91xG or less on a per-game basis over a full Premier League campaign, and 12 of them were relegated.

Abundance of long-range shooters

But xG only provides an idea of averages. It could well be – and the evidence currently suggests as much – that Villa are simply blessed with an unusual number of effective long-distance shooters. McGinn, Emiliano Buendia, Morgan Rogers, Amadou Onana and Kamara are all technically gifted players in their midfield and each have at least one goal from outside the box this season. Similarly, right-back Matty Cash is a sound technician, and he’s netted twice from range.

So, while their xG may be low, maybe Villa have assembled a once-in-a-generation group of efficient long-distance finishers and realised this just in time. It’s not impossible.

There will be those who question the viability of “relying” on long-range goals, however. Some Villa fans may find this grating, and that’s understandable; after all, the adage “they all count” is obviously relevant here, and it’s arguable that framing reliance as negative is counterproductive because Villa’s approach is earning them goals. If you were scoring lots of headers in the six-yard box, you wouldn’t suddenly stop crossing the ball, would you?

But critics of Villa will likely be alluding to the pretty simple fact that fewer goals are scored outside the box.

On average, 85.7 per cent of Premier League goals (since 2003/04) are scored from inside the box, at an average conversion rate of 15 per cent.

That means, 14.3 per cent of goals are scored from outside the area. The average conversion rate of these attempts is 3.7 per cent.

This season, 15.6 per cent of Premier League goals have been converted from outside the area, which is the greatest proportion since 2013/14 (17.7 per cent), though that could drop considerably by the end of the season.

It’s possible that Villa don’t score another goal from outside the box all season, and judging from Emery’s comments at the weekend, he does harbour some fear of variance doing a number on them.

“The players are very comfortable shooting, and they are being clinical, but of course our demand is [giving] more options to try to get goals,”  said Villa's head coach. “We need to add goals in different ways.”

Villa’s overperformance in the expected points table isn’t just down to their shooting.

Emiliano Martinez is having a good season in goal with a respectable 1.4 goals prevented and 77.1 per cent save rate that is bettered by only Sunderland's Robin Roefs (78.3 per cent). Collectively, their 10 non-penalty goals conceded are second to leaders Arsenal (seven).

But there’s no question Villa’s Midas touch from distance has massively contributed to them propelling up the table after a difficult start to the season.

Some will say “this is why xG is nonsense”, but that would actually do Villa a disservice.

The point isn’t that xG is now suddenly redundant, it’s that Villa’s long-range shooting has been efficient to a degree that’s never been seen over a full season in the Premier League, and that’s worth celebrating.

For now, what matters most is Villa are turning a statistical quirk into a competitive edge. Emery seemingly wants more diverse routes to goal, but the points his team have already banked are real, precious, and potentially an aid to momentum.

Villa may ultimately coast back towards the averages – or perhaps they’ll keep warping them.

Either way, it’s compelling viewing for fans of the "screamer".

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