Caicedo v Rice: Who will win crucial midfield duel?

Adrian Clarke identifies the key players, team tactics and where matches could be won and lost in Matchweek 13.

Player analysis: Moises Caicedo (Chelsea) v Declan Rice (Arsenal)

Caicedo and Rice both cost in excess of £100million to sign for Chelsea and Arsenal respectively in the summer of 2023 and this duel at Stamford Bridge on Sunday promises to be one of the highlights of Matchweek 13.

It was money well spent as each has lived up to the huge expectations which followed those transfers.

In midweek European action, both were outstanding in respective victories over Barcelona and Bayern Munich - and this weekend the two best central midfielders in the Premier League will meet.

Respect from Rice

There is little doubt Caicedo and Rice both have great respect for one another’s ability. It was fascinating to hear Rice reveal his admiration for Chelsea’s midfield maestro on Wednesday evening after a man-of-the-match performance in the 3-1 win over Bayern.

“I voted Moises Caicedo in my PFA Team of the Year. It’s gonna be an exciting battle between me and Caicedo. I will be ready,” Rice told CBS Sports.

“I have a lot of respect for Moises. There is so much comparison between us, but we are playing different positions. He’s a full-blown No 6. while I’m more of a box-to-box No 8.”

These heat maps below of their seasons show that both Caicedo and Rice cover plenty of ground in the heart of midfield. But Rice is right to describe himself as a box-to-box No 8 rather than the more defensive No 6. He powers forward down the left in a clear difference of play between the pair.

Caicedo and Rice's heat maps 25/26

Brilliant under pressure

There is an air of calmness about Caicedo and Rice when they have possession, and that aura makes them two of the most press-resistant players in the division.

Statistically, Chelsea’s Ecuadorian is superior.

Making an accurate pass 87 per cent of the time when put under high-intensity pressure, Caicedo has shown he can handle the fast pace and physical nature of English football.

Rice relishes those situations too, looking after the ball with an 84 per cent accuracy rate.

Best pass success under high-intensity pressure 25/26

Over the course of this campaign, both have made a tremendous number of successful passes, with Rice's 638 ranking fourth among midfielders, and Caicedo's 574 ranking sixth.

They are the only midfielders in the top 23 to have achieved a pass accuracy of over 90 per cent too. Each looks after the ball magnificently.

Powering forward

Rice has an unbelievable engine and uses it to great effect when carrying the ball forward for Mikel Arteta’s side.

In midweek against Bayern, he powered through from the halfway line to the six-yard box before drawing a stunning save from Manuel Neuer - and those kinds of lung-busting bursts have given Arsenal a new dimension.

At times this Sunday, Caicedo may have to slide across from the middle to track Rice’s forward runs, and that will test him greatly.

As shown in the table below, the Arsenal midfielder is quicker than his Blues counterpart, and capable of covering longer distances.

Rice’s off the ball runs, especially into the final third, highlight how contrasting these two talents are in terms of what they offer.

How Rice and Caicedo compare 25/26

When compared to other central midfielders, Rice leads a very gifted group of top-class players who love to travel forward with the ball from deep.

Midfielders with most progressive ball carries by distance 25/26

This graphic from Opta displays his 111 progressive ball carries, which are sure to test Chelsea’s players at Stamford Bridge.

Caicedo: The defensive lynchpin

Chelsea have had some exceptional defensive midfielders in the recent past, with Claude Makelele and N’Golo Kante two absolute standouts, but this season Caicedo has filled that role just as well as his illustrious predecessors.

While Rice is a wonderful ball winner himself, in this aspect of the game it is Caicedo who is most effective.

He has made more interceptions than anyone else and features highly in several defensive categories for midfielders.

How Caicedo and Rice rank 25/26

The Gunners will want to play passes into Eberechi Eze in the No 10 position and hit their "false nine" Mikel Merino as often as they can, but Caicedo will revel in his role of screening the service into them.

His packed defensive action areas map (below) shows how well he breaks up play in the middle of the pitch.

Arsenal must also be wary of Caicedo squeezing up to press in advanced areas.

When he did so against Tottenham Hotspur, the 24-year-old made one of the tackles of the season so far, robbing Micky van de Ven to set up Joao Pedro for the winner.

Watch: Caicedo star at Spurs

Both are major goal threats

Caicedo and Rice have scored five Premier League goals between them so far this season, so there is every chance one of them could be Sunday’s matchwinner.

Chelsea’s outstanding defensive midfielder has a great shot in his armoury, and we saw that quality when he scored from outside the box against both Brentford and Liverpool.

His top-corner thunderbolt against the champions was sensational.

Watch: Caicedo's masterclass and goal v Liverpool

Rice has scored twice, breaking into the box to slot home against former club West Ham United, before a header from a counter-attack at Burnley.

Based on their respective roles, it is Rice who supplies the better creativity though, both in open play and from set-pieces.

One of the world’s best at delivering corners and free-kicks, Chelsea will be nervous every time their former academy player stands over a dead ball.

Best of Rice in 2025/26

Eleven of the 21 chances Rice has created this season have come from set-pieces.

When you compare the attacking output of these two fine centre midfielders, it is evident that Rice carries far more threat.

How have past meetings gone?

Caicedo was on the winning side in all three meetings with Rice when they played for Brighton & Hove Albion and West Ham.

Since making their moves to the capital though, it is Rice who has held the upper hand, winning two and drawing two across their four matches.

Rice also scored a sensational long-range goal in 2023/24 at Stamford Bridge during a thrilling 2-2 draw, shown below.

The duo’s latest head-to-head sees them come into the game rightly regarded as two of the very best all-round central midfielders on the planet.

Absolutely integral to everything their teams do, and capable of influencing matches in a variety of ways, you will not want to take your eyes off them this Sunday.

Equally brilliant, this will be a genuinely elite duel.

Also in this series