Why Aston Villa's expert long-distance strikes are reaping rewards

Football writer Adrian Clarke identifies the key players, team tactics and where matches could be won and lost in Matchweek 13.

Team analysis: Aston Villa

Villa got off to a sluggish start to the campaign, failing to score in any of their opening four Premier League matches.

Matty Cash’s long-range strike in a 1-1 draw at Sunderland on Matchweek 5 finally got the ball rolling, and since then a run of six victories in seven matches has catapulted them into the top four.

How have Emery’s side produced this turnaround? 

The key to Villa’s march up the Premier League table has been individual quality rather than tactical genius from their head coach.

Averaging an Expected Goals (xG) of only 0.9 per match, Unai Emery’s men have lost the xG battle in nine of their 12 matches so far.

Yet they have consistently found a way to win.

Much of that has been down to a phenomenal run of long-range strikes finding the back of the opposition net.

Incredibly, eight of Villa’s 15 goals scored so far in 2025/26 have been scored from outside the penalty area.

Aston Villa goal map 25/26

This brilliant double from in-form Morgan Rogers and Emiliano Buendia helped Villa to an impressive 2-1 success at Tottenham Hotspur.

And a 23-yard cracker from Amadou Onana in the 4-0 home win over AFC Bournemouth is another example of how Villa are scoring goals through moments of brilliance.

When you break down all eight of those goals from distance - and the importance they carried in each of the matches - it adds up to eight additional points earned for Emery’s side.

Take those strikes away, and Villa could be sat in 15th place instead of fourth.

Villa goalscorers from outside penalty area 25/26

Can this level of ball-striking excellence be maintained?

No Premier League side has scored with such a high percentage of their long-range efforts since records began in 2003/04.

As it stand, 15.7 per cent of Villa’s shots from 18+ yards are finding the back of the net.

Putting this into context, the best record over a full season is shared between Newcastle United (2022/23) and Villa themselves (2007/08) with a success rate of 8.4 per cent.

Best shot conversion rates from outside penalty area since 03/04

Last season, the average conversion rate for shots from outside the box, across all 20 clubs, stood at 4.3 per cent - and the division’s average in 2025/26 (including Villa’s) sits on 5.4 per cent.

What we are witnessing from Villa is genuinely exceptional but the current levels are surely unsustainable.

As a group, they must learn to be less reliant on these types of efforts bailing them out in tight matches.

If Villa want to stay in the top four, it feels essential that they develop better patterns of play which create clearer opportunities inside the box – and convert those more consistently.

Knuckleballs and short corners

It was interesting to see Rogers run over to celebrate his stunning free-kick at Leeds United last Sunday with set-piece coach Austin MacPhee.

In recent weeks, Villa have been outstanding from dead-ball situations, and it appears the England international wanted to give credit to the 46-year-old Scot.

Rogers and Buendia have both scored from outrageous, side-foot, fast-dipping knuckleball free-kicks in recent weeks; a technique they must have practised alongside MacPhee.

Villa also scored from two corners against Bournemouth; one a near post inswinger, the other from a short corner worked to a spare man on the edge of the box.

That is how defender Cash scored the only goal of the game at home to Manchester City too, so it’s evident that ruthlessness from dead-ball situations has played a major part in their impressive recovery.

Watch: Cash's goal v Man City

Issues to solve

Villa need star striker Ollie Watkins to rediscover his goalscoring mojo if they are to maintain their progress.

The 29-year-old has netted only once in 17 appearances in all competitions, running onto a long through ball before lobbing Bernd Leno in a 3-1 win against Fulham.

Watkins' finishing could have been sharper - he has a conversion rate of just five per cent - but the team is also creating far fewer chances for him than usual.

His numbers are way down on the previous two seasons which could be due to a lack of quality service.

 Watkins' Premier League performance comparison by season

It is not just Watkins who is missing big chances.

Right now, Villa have the lowest big-chance conversion rate, 18.75 per cent, and to make matters worse they have created only 16 big chances; the third lowest figure of all 20 clubs.

Consequently, their xG number of 10.94 is the second-worst in the division.

Emery is defying the stats

Has Villa’s accuracy from set-pieces and long-distance shots helped them resist gravity? The answer is yes.

If you check out the eight-match form table, they sit second behind leaders Arsenal on 19 points accrued during that spell, yet Opta Analyst’s Expected Points table paints a very different picture.

Based on their xG and Expected Goals Against (xGA) outputs, Emery’s side have just 11.6 expected points; a total that places them 19th in the table!

Along with Sunderland and Tottenham Hotspur, the data suggests that Villa are hugely over-performing.

Expected points/positions in Premier League 25/26

Positives to take

Ahead of a home encounter against fellow Midlands club Wolverhampton Wanderers this weekend, there are plenty of encouraging signs, despite the stats suggesting Villa should be much lower in the table.

As a side Emery’s men have displayed terrific game management, taking 10 points from the four matches where they scored first.

This grit has also come to the fore in adversity.

Averaging 1.5 points per game from 1-0 down, Villa have fought back well on several occasions.

Most points per game after conceding first, Premier League 2025/26

Emery’s use of his substitutes deserves praise, and has played a role in those turnarounds.

Timing the changes perfectly, Buendia, Donyell Malen, Ross Barkley and Youri Tielemans have all made impacts off the bench in recent weeks.

Goal contributions by Villa subs in last seven PL games

So even though there is great room for improvement when it comes to performance levels, Villa have confidence aplenty right now.

If things are not going to plan, they back themselves to find a way to pick up three points.