Football writer Ben Bloom looks at Liverpool’s current downturn and why there is hope their situation could soon be about to change, starting with Nottingham Forest at home on Saturday.
Not even two months ago, the question was asked if the Premier League title race was already a foregone conclusion.
An unblemished record of five wins from their opening five matches meant reigning champions Liverpool had opened up an early five-point lead over their nearest rivals.
A bumper haul of a reported £450million worth of talent had been added to a squad of existing Premier League winners, and many people suggested another title triumph was inevitable.
Such predictions proved wildly premature. Victory in just one of their next six Premier League outings has seen Arne Slot’s side tumble to eighth in the table, a significant eight points behind leaders Arsenal.
Only bottom club Wolverhampton Wanderers have earned fewer points during that period.
From champions elect, they have fallen to mid-table mediocrity in the space of a few weeks. But what comes next?
Can Slot turn things around to claw back Arsenal’s advantage or, at least, cement a top-four spot? Or is the decline terminal?
Tough fixtures easing?
If any Liverpool supporter instinctively feels the early-season fixture list has not been kind to their club, the numbers suggest they may well have a point.
Of Liverpool’s 11 opponents faced so far, Burnley are the sole current occupants of the bottom six, with Everton the only other bottom-half team that Liverpool have faced at home.
Indeed, Slot’s team have played seven of the other nine clubs that make up the present top 10 alongside themselves.
Using the Opta Power Ranking – an objective measure of a team’s quality – Opta Analyst determined that Liverpool had the fifth-toughest average opponent rating of any Premier League club for their opening six games of this campaign.
Over the following five matches, only Brentford had it more difficult, while Arsenal benefitted from the easiest run of opponents in the entire league.
Could things now be about to turn?
In their next eight fixtures – taking the Premier League to its halfway point – Liverpool will play all three teams in the relegation zone (Wolves, Nottingham Forest and West Ham United), with Sunderland and Tottenham Hotspur their only top-half opponents during that run.
Memory of last year’s improvement
Let’s be honest, Liverpool romped to the title last season, triumphing by 10 points despite failing to win any of their last four fixtures once the Premier League crown was secure.
But the data suggests they did, in fact, improve notably at almost this exact point.
Measuring non-penalty Expected Goals (xG) for and against, Opta Analyst found that Liverpool’s numbers had dipped slightly in October and November last season, before improving dramatically over the next three months.
With the memory of last season’s winter advancement, could Slot’s side excel over the coldest months again?
Alisson’s return
Speaking ahead of Saturday’s match against Forest, Slot confirmed Alisson has returned to training and is due to reclaim his place in goal this weekend.
The Brazilian has not played since the end of September, denying Liverpool one of the best goalkeepers in world football – a superb shot stopper, but also a 'keeper with great ball-playing proficiency.
In his absence, Giorgi Mamardashvili has filled in, forcing Liverpool’s defence to accustomise to a different style of goalkeeper entirely.
The Georgian is not considered as accomplished on the ball as Alisson, and this BBC Sport analysis suggests his favoured left foot means he has a far stronger preference for short passes to the right than his Brazilian counterpart.
That side of Liverpool’s defence has notably struggled this season, with right-sided centre-back Ibrahima Konate far from his best, and a rotating cast of right-backs unable to stake their claim for the position permanently.
The departure of Trent Alexander-Arnold continues to be felt, with Mamardashvili’s passing preference compounding the issue.
Alisson’s return should see play naturally spread more through left-sided centre-back Virgil van Dijk, who is the stronger ball-player of the central pair.
Isak and Ekitike together
When Liverpool broke their club record to sign Alexander Isak from Newcastle United in the summer, they would not have anticipated the Swedish forward reaching this point of the campaign without a single Premier League or UEFA Champions League goal.
In Isak’s absence – due to injury and a lack of fitness – Hugo Ekitike has led the line with relative success, leading Liverpool’s goalscoring charts with six across all competitions.
The Frenchman told the official Liverpool website he felt like “a kid dreaming” when he scored his first senior goal in a FIFA World Cup qualifying win over Ukraine last week.
Notably, he proved his ability when working alongside a fellow striker during that victory, linking well with Kylian Mbappe after coming off the bench.
Slot has said he can play Ekitike and Isak together – an option that may now come to fruition with the Swede back to fitness and ready to prove himself at Anfield.
Struggling defence
While there have been issues all over the pitch, perhaps Liverpool’s primary concern is at the back, where they have conceded 17 goals in 11 league matches.
Only seven Premier League teams have let in more, while just eight have faced more shots on target (46), and eight have a lower Expected Goals Against (xG) 13.9.
The difference to last season is stark. When winning the 2024/25 title, Slot’s side allowed fewer big chances (75) than any club other than Arsenal and Forest.
This season, Liverpool have faced more big chances (29) than all bar Burnley and West Ham.
In a season that has seen a concerted resurgence in long-ball football and set-pieces, Liverpool’s defence have particularly struggled on both fronts – and Saturday’s opponents Forest are almost certainly going to take a long-ball approach.
Having reportedly come close to bringing Crystal Palace captain Marc Guehi to the club in the summer, Slot insisted on Friday that making a January central defensive signing is the “last thing on my mind”.
Yet, in confirming injuries to Conor Bradley, Jeremie Frimpong and Giovanni Leoni (in addition to midfielder Florian Wirtz), he suggested the club had only “five natural defenders – five players who have always played as a defender – available for seven games in 22 days”.
A familiar fate
For all that this, at times, feels like the wheels have come off the Liverpool train, they are not the first Premier League champions to endure a difficult title defence; far from it.
In the Pep Guardiola era of six Manchester City titles in seven years, it became expected that title winners would retain their trophy the following campaign. But Guardiola’s side are the exception to the norm.
According to the Athletic, nine of the past 15 Premier League title defences have seen a drop of at least 10 points from the previous season. In six of those cases the drop was at least 20 points, and in three it was 30 or more.
Indeed, Man City are the only club to successfully defend a Premier League title since Sir Alex Ferguson led Manchester United to a third successive triumph in 2008/09.
In such a context, Liverpool’s current downturn is not at all unusual, and it may well prove temporary.
Slot just needs his side to kick into gear before it is too late.