Football writer Alex Keble looks at key fixtures ahead of a busy couple of months for teams at both ends of the table in the Premier League.
When the Premier League returns next weekend, we begin to gear up for the busiest time of the season.
The table will change considerably over the coming weeks and months as good starts wilt, faltering clubs recover, and the league begins to form a lasting shape.
You might think it’s the hectic festive period, beginning in late December, when the Premier League table shakes out. Not quite.
Before then we have five rounds squeezed into four weeks; 40 matches in 24 days, an extremely busy autumn period that – with a full midweek round and Friday/Monday matches – sees Premier League football played on 14 of those 24 days.
Those fixture include Newcastle United v Manchester City and Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur in Matchweek 12, Chelsea v Arsenal in Matchweek 13, and a Matchweek 16 that looks full of title-race banana skins: Crystal Palace v Man City and Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion among them.
History tells us it’s a crucial period. This time last year the gap from third to 12th was just four points, but by the end of Matchweek 16 that had grown to seven.
Meanwhile, Chelsea rose rapidly and Palace shook off relegation concerns while Newcastle began their descent.
If it’s anything like last year, then the next five weeks will be hugely significant. Arsenal’s very tough set of games could let Man City, Chelsea, and Liverpool in.
Arsenal’s tough run could let in chasing pack
The title race could shift dramatically.
Arsenal have an extremely difficult run of matches coming up, with no banker until the final match in the sequence of five, which includes Spurs (H), Chelsea (A), Brentford (H), Aston Villa (A), and Wolverhampton Wanderers (H).
The north London derby and the derby at Stamford Bridge will bring blood and thunder, potentially disrupting the calm rhythm of Mikel Arteta’s side so far this season.
Then comes Brentford, whose low block has already taken points from Chelsea, Man City, Manchester United, and Newcastle this season, before Arsenal play Villa, a side they’ve beaten just once in the last four attempts.
All of this is excellent news for Man City, Chelsea, and Liverpool, who will each expect to win more points than the Gunners in this period.
Man City travel to St James Park at the perfect time, with Newcastle in poor form, and following three matches against Leeds, Fulham and Sunderland, travel to Selhurst Park, by which time Palace’s unbeaten run will surely have ended.
Chelsea will see hosting Arsenal as a chance to reel them in, and otherwise are only truly challenged by a trip to AFC Bournemouth, suggesting Enzo Maresca has a real opportunity to close the gap to zero in time for Christmas.
Liverpool are much further behind and struggling for form, of course, which is why their next five fixtures will come as such a relief to Arne Slot.
He needs 15 points from these games. Liverpool are surely good enough to get them.
In summary, the fixture schedule presents the possibility that any of the three chasers could be at least level on points with Arsenal by the end of MW16.
It makes for a fascinating few weeks.
Spurs, Villa and Man Utd hunt down UCL
There are conceivably 10 Premier League clubs currently thinking about the one or two UEFA Champions League places up for grabs. In all likelihood, that number will come down a bit over the next four weeks.
The most likely contenders, based on current points and pre-season expectations, are Man Utd, Villa, and Spurs.
Of those three Villa and United look best placed to sprint clear this autumn.
Villa play four teams currently in the bottom half and host Arsenal, a fixture they historically do well in, while Man Utd don’t play a single team higher than ninth.
If Ruben Amorim can continue their rhythm, he can well and truly put a gap between United and the outsiders.
Spurs, however have a difficult set of away trips as they go to Emirates Stadium, St James Park and the City Ground.
Palace and Newcastle have a chance to climb
Sunderland, too, may regress. Their brilliant start is partly thanks to a quirk of the fixture list, which is why their matches now look so tough: Liverpool (A), Man City (A) and Newcastle (H), all in a row, will take a massive psychological toll.
Bournemouth, Brighton, and Palace also harbour ambitions of playing in Europe next season and of the three, Palace are likeliest to rise.
Andoni Iraola’s team have a potentially favourable fixtures between Matchweek 12-14, but their back-to-back defeats suggest tiredness is creeping in, which could help sides beneath them happy to sit deep and frustrate.
Matches against Chelsea and Man Utd end a sequence that is tougher than it might at first seem.
Brighton have a mixed set of fixtures, with Villa and Liverpool stumbling blocks, whereas Palace face three of the current bottom six and both Manchester clubs at home.
Oliver Glasner tends to do well at Selhurst Park against the ‘Big Six’, suggesting Palace could put a run together that separates them from Bournemouth, Brighton, and Sunderland.
Newcastle, too, have a chance to get back into the running. Aside from the Tyne-Wear derby, their only blockbuster matches (Man City and Spurs) are at home.
If Eddie Howe can transfer some of that fighting spirit over from the Champions League, this could be a fruitful time.
Tough fixtures for the bottom six
After the first 11 Matchweeks, it looks as though three of the current bottom six will get relegated, and judging by their respective fixture lists, that perspective is not going to change before the festive period begins.
In fact, with Everton and Brentford looking stable and Newcastle surely already at their lowest, the extremely tough matches facing the bottom clubs means a mini-league might develop that cuts them adrift.
Wolves have four matches against the current top 10, West Ham United do not play anyone lower than 11th, and Leeds United face four of the top eight.
These three in particular might struggle, and it certainly paints a bleak picture for new managers Nuno Espirito Santo and Rob Edwards.
Things are slightly better for the other three. Nottingham Forest’s momentum could be halted at Anfield, and they still have Brighton and Spurs after that, although two six-pointers might be all Sean Dyche needs to continue the recovery.
Burnley will be looking at Brentford (A) and Fulham (A) as their chance for points in a difficult spell, while Fulham will also be looking at that MW16 game, as well as a home meeting against Sunderland.
So, Forest, Burnley, and Fulham all have two out of five matches against fellow bottom-half clubs; games they will earmark as winnable, and want four points from at least.
If they hit that target, it could leave Wolves, West Ham, and Leeds in serious trouble.
But these are all very much hypothetical.
The sheer congestion of the fixture list adds a layer of unpredictability, as does European football played alongside it.
Whatever happens, we can safely say the next five rounds will be pivotal.