Should you back Thiago to keep delivering in FPL?

The Scout analyses the impressive form of Brentford forward Igor Thiago (£6.3m) and whether the Brazilian can sustain it and become a key pick in Fantasy Premier League.

Igor Thiago's two goals and 13 points against Newcastle United have made him the key target up front for managers in Fantasy ahead of Gameweek 12.

Brentford's Brazilian has earned 227,000+ transfers in after climbing to second spot in the forward standings on 60 points ahead of the current international break. 

But can he continue that output and become a key figure in Fantasy? We delve into the data and analyse Thiago's breakout campaign.

Watch all of Thiago's goals

Why has Thiago made a strong start to 2025/26?

After 11 rounds of matches, we now have a fair indication of the Bees' prospects under head coach Keith Andrews.

And as the table below shows, he's doing a fine job so far. In terms of big chances - or situations where the player is expected to score - Brentford rank sixth-best, with a total of 31, just one fewer than leaders Arsenal, for example.

They have scored 17 goals thanks to a conversion rate of 14.5 per cent, the fourth-best record in the league.

Team attacking stats, GW1-11

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The player statistics help to show Thiago's major influence on his side's attack during his breakout Fantasy campaign.

His 23 shots and 13 big chances this season are both comfortably more than any team-mate. The forward has also created one big chance, which means he's been involved in a total of 14 of them.

The table below also helps to highlight that midfield pair Dango Ouattara (£6.0m) and Kevin Schade (£7.0m) are the only other Brentford players this season to be involved in more than three big chances.

Brentford players' attacking stats, GW1-11

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A further breakdown of Thiago's goal threat statistics offers more encouragement. 

While his seasonal goal conversion rate of 32.0 per cent is fairly lofty, it's worth remembering that three of his eight efforts were converted penalties.

As the numbers on the right of the table below show, though, the Brazilian is still a huge threat without spot-kicks. Indeed, half of his other 20 shots in the box were big chances, with a conversion rate of 22.7 per cent looking far more sustainable. 

Thiago's goal threat stats, GW1-11

How does Thiago compare with other forwards?

An analysis of the 10 most-popular forwards in Fantasy helps to highlight that Erling Haaland (£14.9m) is simply in a league of his own this season.

The table below shows the Manchester City star has had 22 big chances this season, more than any other player in his position.

Man City themselves have had 34 of them, which essentially means that Haaland, as the focal point of their attack, has had a massive 64.7 per cent of his club's big chances.

While no other forward comes remotely close to the Norwegian, Thiago, along with Crystal Palace's Jean-Philippe Mateta (£8.1m) and Newcastle's Nick Woltemade (£7.4m), are all tightly bunched over the 40-per cent mark.

Although Chelsea's Joao Pedro (£7.5m) sits just one point behind Thiago in third place among forwards in the overall standings, the underlying numbers show he is not the focal point of his side's attack.

The Brazilian has had just six of Chelsea's 37 big chances, which equates to just 16.2 per cent.

Big-chance stats, GW1-11

*From point of his debut in Gameweek 4

Consistent both home and away

One of the most encouraging aspects of Thiago's campaign has been his consistency both home and away.

He's scored five of his eight goals at the Gtech Community Stadium, amassing 36 of his 60 points across six home contests.

A comparison with other forwards shows the Brazilian's average of 6.0 points per home match (ppm) is bettered only by the 10.2ppm of Haaland.

Woltemade and Mateta are again among the best of the rest, with 6.0 and 5.7ppm respectively, but what's noticeable is that there's far more of a drop-off in output when they play away matches.

Whereas Thiago has averaged 4.8ppm in away matches - blanking just twice in five road trips - Woltemade and Mateta slip to 4.0 and 3.2ppm here. 

The table below also helps to highlight that forwards such as Joao Pedro and West Ham United's Jarrod Bowen (£7.7m) have been more productive in away matches this season.

Indeed, in away matches, Joao Pedro's average of 7.0ppm is second only to Haaland's 8.2. But he's failed to reproduce that output at Stamford Bridge, managing a mere 24 points - or 4.0ppm - over six outings. 

Most-owned forwards' home/away points per match, GW1-11

What are Brentford's fixtures like?

Brentford's upcoming schedule also gives Thiago the chance of scoring more goals. 

According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), where the difficulty of each fixture is ranked from one to five - with one being the easiest possible match and five being the hardest - THREE of their five matches over Gameweeks 13-17 score just two. 

As the focal point of the Brentford attack, Thiago could be a huge success in those home matches against promoted pair Burnley and Leeds United and the trip to Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Brentford's next six matches

So, can Thiago keep delivering?

Brentford looked to have settled under Andrews and Thiago's numbers show he is clearly thriving as the focal point of one of the league's most potent attacks.

His consistency both home and away, boosted by his penalty duties, can make him a standout source of value up front for many Gameweeks to come.

While Mateta's individual numbers still make him the best pick to go alongside Haaland, Thiago's upcoming schedule - aside from the Gameweek 14 visit to Arsenal - makes a very strong case to own him as a third forward.