Football writer Adrian Clarke identifies the key players, team tactics and where matches could be won and lost in Matchweek 11.
Team analysis: Newcastle United
Languishing in 12th spot, Newcastle return to London this weekend looking to bounce back from a disappointing 3-1 defeat at West Ham United.
Statistically their 12-point haul represents the poorest start from an Eddie Howe side since the 2017/18 campaign with AFC Bournemouth, as we look at why Newcastle have failed to find consistency so far this season.
The highest-ranked side Newcastle have beaten this season are 15th-placed Fulham, and it took a 90th-minute winner from Bruno Guimaraes to see off Marco Silva’s men.
Aside from that, their only other Premier League victories have been against the bottom two, Nottingham Forest and Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Tellingly, all three wins were at St James’ Park.
Stretching back to April, Newcastle are winless in their last eight away matches and have taken just four points in that run.
Their shot conversion rate across those eight fixtures has been a lowly four per cent, and they have failed to score more than once in all of those matches.
Newcastle's last eight away results
| Opponent | Result |
|---|---|
| West Ham | 3-1 (loss) |
| Brighton | 2-1 (loss) |
| Bournemouth | 0-0 (draw) |
| Leeds | 0-0 (draw) |
| Aston Villa | 0-0 (draw) |
| Arsenal | 1-0 (loss) |
| Brighton | 1-1 (draw) |
| Aston Villa | 4-1 (loss) |
Upcoming opponents Brentford will look at this record and take confidence from it ahead of Sunday’s match in west London.
What do the numbers tell us?
Howe’s side are creating far fewer big chances away from St James’ Park, enjoying just three in their five away games so far, compared with 16 at home.
Newcastle's attacking stats, home v away 25/26
| Statistic | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| Chances created | 56 | 43 |
| Chances created in open play | 46 | 41 |
| Big chances | 16 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 8.78 | 4.00 |
| Goals | 8 | 2 |
The impressive Sandro Tonali has stepped up his performances away from St James’ Park, creating eight chances in open play, the most of any Newcastle player.
But the rest of the squad has largely been below par, lacking in energy and imagination on their travels.
When you compare how they create their chances home and away, you can see how much harder Newcastle have found it to pick out team-mates in the box.
Newcastle's shot map, home v away matches
Nick Woltemade for example, has had double the number of attempts from inside the box at home, eight to four, which has limited his goal threat.
Strangely, the Magpies have also had considerably more success getting on the end of corners at St James’ Park, as the graphic above shows.
Do they press less away from St James’ Park?
At their best, Newcastle can be a ferocious pressing side that feed off turnovers inside the opposition half.
The statistics show they have run further and made more sprints in away games, so the effort has been there on their travels.
Yet there is a discernible downturn in the quality of their pressing when they are not playing in front of their own fans.
As shown below they apply less pressures and regain possession on fewer occasions in away matches.
Newcastle's pressing stats, home v away 25/26
| Statistic | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 5 | 5 |
| Possession won in final third | 24 | 16 |
| High turnovers | 42 | 31 |
| Goals ending from high turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| High pressures applied | 1,503 | 1,388 |
| High pressures applied in final third | 549 | 403 |
Part of the issue could be the nature of recent matches.
They have faced a string of opponents who are not possession-heavy outfits, which means Newcastle’s average share has been 55.51 per cent versus 47.11 per cent at home.
This does not suit their aggressive style of play.
As a team they must learn to be more progressive and dangerous when enjoying the bulk of possession.
In matches of that ilk, they have lacked a little sharpness and guile inside the final third.
Structural differences
At St James’ Park, Howe’s side make a habit of closing down opponents in man-for-man fashion, with one player pressing and the others locking on from behind.
This image from their match against Arsenal is a good example.
On the road we see less of this ferocity from the Magpies.
Instead they tend to settle into a flatter, more zonal five-man midfield unit without the ball, especially around the halfway line.
That mid-block has been regularly undone playing this way, with too much space being left between the lines when there is no pressure on the ball.
Brighton & Hove Albion punished them for it when Georginio Rutter (below) was picked out, turning and running with the ball before slipping Danny Welbeck in to score.
Bournemouth also had a goal disallowed for offside in their 0-0 draw on the south coast, after Marcus Tavernier was left free between the lines.
Spaces like this have appeared all too frequently in recent away matches.
Though they defend a little deeper and certainly in a more passive manner than they do at St James’ Park, Newcastle are still not as difficult to play against.
Problems tracking runners
Both of Howe’s left wingers have also been guilty of losing concentration at key junctures, costing the side goals away from home.
Last time out in that lacklustre display against West Ham, Anthony Gordon let Aaron Wan-Bissaka run off him, at a moment when Dan Burn had pushed on to get tight to Jarrod Bowen.
Moments later Sven Botman turned Wan-Bissaka’s cross into his own net.
In the 2-1 loss at Brighton, it was Harvey Barnes who was caught ball watching, allowing Mats Wieffer to drive behind him to receive an incisive Yasin Ayari pass.
From the same move, Danny Welbeck scored the winner.
On the road defensive standards have not been as high as they are at St James’ Park.
Better focus is needed against Brentford on Sunday afternoon.
A tough test awaits
No side has conceded more shots from fast breaks than Newcastle this season (14).
West Ham had five shots from those situations last weekend, so it is an area they must tighten up on at Brentford.
Keith Andrews’ side have scored five times from counters (the most in the division) often releasing the speedy Kevin Schade and Igor Thiago with long passes over the top.
Howe must focus on that aspect of their play, as well as those issues addressed in this piece if the Magpies are to gain their first three points of the season away from home.