FPL long view: Plan to invest in Liverpool and Man Utd from GW12

The Scout explains why Fantasy Premier League managers should look beyond this weekend's fixtures and consider banking a free transfer so they can potentially make more impactful moves in Gameweek 12.

Mohamed Salah (£14.2m) and Bryan Mbeumo (£8.4m) have the upcoming fixtures to make a big impact in Fantasy until they both depart for the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON).

A look at this weekend's schedule suggests that neither player will be a priority buy for managers in Gameweek 11, with Liverpool's Salah visiting Manchester City and Manchester United's Mbeumo at Tottenham Hotspur.

However, following the upcoming international break, both clubs enjoy a favourable turn in their schedule from Gameweek 12 which looks very encouraging for investment.

According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), where the difficulty of each fixture is ranked from one to five - with one being the easiest possible match and five being the hardest - all three of Liverpol's matches over Gameweeks 12-14 score only two.

They have two home matches against Nottingham Forest and Sunderland, with a visit to West Ham United in between. 

Looking beyond the short term, as many as FIVE of the Reds' eight matches from Gameweek 12 score just two, including back-to-back home contests with bottom club Wolverhampton Wanderers and 16th-placed Leeds United in Gameweeks 18-19.

Liverpool's fixtures GW12-19

*1=easiest possible fixture, 5=hardest possible fixture

Meanwhile, three of Man Utd's four matches across Gameweeks 12-15 also score just two in the FDR, with home matches against Everton and West Ham being combined with a trip to Wolves.

Similarly to Liverpool, NONE of their next eight matches scores more than three in the FDR.

Man Utd's fixtures GW12-19

*1=easiest possible fixture, 5=hardest possible fixture

The upcoming AFCON, which involves players from 24 African countries, should be a big part of managers' planning here, as both Egypt's Salah and Cameroon's Mbeumo are among the players involved. 

The tournament takes place midway through the Premier League season, starting on Sunday 21 December 2025 and finishing on Sunday 18 January 2026.

From a Fantasy perspective, the AFCON matches cover Gameweeks 17-22. However, there is a possibility that some players will leave early for the tournament ahead of the Gameweek 16 fixtures.

Handily, managers' total of free transfers will be topped up to the maximum of five in Gameweek 16 to help deal with the departure of those big-hitters. 

Which positions should managers invest in from Liverpool and Man Utd?

An assessment of each club's key statistics, both over the season and in recent Gameweeks, helps to highlight their strengths and weaknesses.

The numbers indicate Liverpool remain one of the league's very best attacks.

Their totals of 18 goals and 31 big chances - situations where a player is expected to score - both rank among the top three across the first 10 Gameweeks. 

Indeed, Arne Slot's side rank top for big chances over the last four Gameweeks, averaging four per match. Their problem in this period has simply been taking their opportunities, with their 9.2 per cent goal conversion rated 16th out of the 20 clubs.

Liverpool's frailties in defence are also laid bare in the table below.

They have conceded 28 big chances this season, fewer than only the 31 of promoted Burnley. And those issues have shown no sign of improving, with the Reds second-bottom for this statistic across the last four Gameweeks. 

Liverpool attacking and defensive stats

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Man Utd, meanwhile, have improved at both ends of the pitch, with their attacking particularly catching the eye of late. 

Ruben Amorim's side have scored a league-leading 10 goals over the last four Gameweeks, thanks to an upturn in their conversion rate. 

Over the season as a whole, Man Utd's goal conversion rate of 11.1 per cent is near-identical to the 11.5 of Liverpool. But whereas Liverpool's rate has dropped over the last four Gameweeks, the Red Devils' has climbed to 17.2 per cent. 

At the back, Man Utd place among the worst seven sides over the season for conceding goals and big chances.

While those numbers have improved recently, they ultimately still have just a single clean sheet to their name all season. 

Man Utd attacking and defensive stats

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Who are the form players for Liverpool and Man Utd?

It's been all about the midfielders for Liverpool and Man Utd recently, with the combined five top-scoring players from both clubs across the last four Gameweeks listed in that position in Fantasy.

Man Utd duo Mbeumo and Casemiro (£5.5m) are the fourth and fifth top-scoring players overall during this period, on 32 and 31 points respectively.

Mbeumo has scored three goals, supplied an assist and blanked only once in that time, his most consistent run of output since joining the club over the summer from Brentford.

Meanwhile, Casemiro's influence at both ends of the pitch has been pivotal to his side's turnaround in form. The Brazilian has produced two goals and an assist over the last four Gameweeks, while also collecting six further points from his defensive contributions. 

Elsewhere, Salah and Cody Gakpo (£7.6m) have each scored twice for Liverpool in this spell, while Man Utd's Bruno Fernandes (£8.9m) has mirrored the 5.0 points-per-match average of Salah. 

Top-scoring Liverpool and Man Utd players GW7-10

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Who is most likely to score and assist?

When it comes to potential for goals and assists, the numbers once again show why midfield should be the priority position for managers in Fantasy.

Salah leads the way here for shots in the box over the last four Gameweeks, with his total of 10 bettering the eight of both Mbeumo and Gakpo.

Fernandes' six in the same period also eclipses a trio of forwards, with his team-mate Benjamin Sesko (£7.3m) and Liverpool's Hugo Ekitike (£8.6m) tied on five each.

Salah and Mbeumo cannot be separated for big chances (BC). Both have had four such opportunities and created a further two for their team-mates in this period, which means they have been involved in a total of six big chances. 

Not only are those numbers the best for Liverpool and Man Utd, they are also better than all other midfielders in Fantasy across Gameweeks 7-10.

Gakpo keeps pace with Salah and Mbeumo on six big-chance involvements, albeit with one fewer gilt-edged scoring opportunity for himself. 

Liverpool and Man Utd players' goal threat GW7-10

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Who are the best defenders to consider?

As the team statistics above already indicate, neither Liverpool or Man Utd defensive assets have merited a place in managers' line-ups.

In a season where Arsenal's resilient defenders are dominating, it seems a very unnecessary move to invest in either of their defences right now.

There's no denying Slot's side have improved over the last week, though, with back-to-back clean sheets against Aston Villa and Real Madrid raising hopes of a return to form.

As the table below shows, Virgil van Dijk (£6.0m) has been the top performer for defensive contribution (DC) points across both defences this season, collecting 12 in total.

While his average of 4.0 points per match ranks top among the regular starters for both defences, the Dutchman's total of 40 points is only HALF the 80 of Arsenal's Gabriel (£6.6m).

Among the regular starters in defence, Liverpool's Ibrahima Konate (£5.4m) and Man Utd's Matthijs de Ligt (£5.0m) and Diogo Dalot (£4.4m) are the only other players to average at least 3.0 points per start across the campaign so far.

Konate's consistency across the key statistics here suggest he could be one to monitor. His five headed shots from set-pieces are more than his rivals, while the Frenchman ranks second for both defensive contributions and points per start.

Similarly, his five shots and five chances created mean he has been involved in 10 shots, a total bettered only by the 11 of Dalot. Man Utd's wing-back has had three shots and created eight chances.

Liverpool and Man Utd's top-performing defenders 25/26

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