Who is the best replacement for Joao Pedro in FPL?

The Scout assesses the candidates to replace Chelsea's Joao Pedro (£7.5m) in Fantasy Premier League as managers rush to sell him.

Joao Pedro is the third most-owned player in Fantasy, being selected in 52 per cent of squads, but his blank at home against Sunderland on Saturday - his fifth in a row - appears to have finally ended the patience of many of his owners. 

The Brazilian had been the second most-sold player for Gameweek 9, moved on by 614,000 managers even before he faced Sunderland, and he is by far the most-sold player for Gameweek 10 ahead of Saturday's 13:30 GMT deadline, with more than 540,000 transfers out taking his sales past 1.1million over Gameweeks 9-10.

As FPL managers shop for a replacement forward, let's look at the best options.

Who are the form forwards in Fantasy?

As shown by the table below, there are nine forwards who have produced at least twice the total of Joao Pedro's miserly 10 points over the last five Gameweeks. 

Erling Haaland's (£14.7m) prolific season shows why is a must-have for managers. The Manchester City star has amassed 48 points in those last five Gameweeks thanks to six goals, an assist and 11 bonus points.

Brighton & Hove Albion's Danny Welbeck (£6.4m) and Brentford's Thiago (£6.2m) lead the chasing pack, with 32 and 30 points respectively in that same period.

Welbeck, who has started each of Brighton's last three matches, has scored five goals in the last five Gameweeks.

Similarly, Thiago has blanked only twice in that spell, with his four goals over that period matching the tally of Crystal Palace's Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.7m), who is the most-bought forward in the Gameweeek, with more than 310,000 transfers in.

West Ham United's Jarrod Bowen (£7.8m), Newcastle United's Nick Woltemade (£7.5m) and AFC Bournemouth's Junior Kroupi (£4.6m) also catch the eye. The latter has scored in all three of his appearances over this five-Gameweek period and has started the last two matches due to an injury to Evanilson (£7.0m).

Top-scoring forwards Gameweeks 5-9

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Who's had the greatest goal threat?

A delve into the data shows just why Joao Pedro is being regarded as a priority sale in Gameweek 10.

The Chelsea star has had just one shot in the box over those last five matches and had no big chances, which are situations where the player is expected to score.

Mateta's numbers, meanwhile, explain why he has emerged as the most-popular recruit among forwards. His 21 shots and 12 big chances in the last five Gameweeks are both more than Haaland's, and the pair are tied on 18 shots in the box each.

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Thiago is the best of the rest here. He claims third spot for shots and shots in the box and, more impressively, is tied with Haaland on nine big chances.

Woltemade also impresses. Six of his nine shots in the box - or 66.7 per cent - have been big chances, helping the German to score on three occasions over the same period. 

Notably, a look at the goal conversion statistics indicates that Welbeck and Kroupi have been markedly overperforming.

Welbeck's five goals from nine shots equates to a clearly unsustainable 55.6 per cent goal-conversion rate, while Kroupi is not far behind on 50.0 per cent, scoring with four of his eight attempts.

Most big chances, Gameweeks 5-9

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Who's the main man in their team's attack?

By then bringing in the number of big chances (BC) for each of the above players' clubs, you can get a far better idea of who is the focal point of their side's attack.

Kroupi ranks first, partly due to Bournemouth's poor attacking numbers. The Cherries have had just six big chances in the last five matches, the second-worst total in the league. The Frenchman has had four of them, or 66.7 per cent.

Mateta once again keeps pace with Haaland here. What's more impressive is that Palace's 23 big chances are a league-high number in this spell, with their striker's total of 12 meaning he's had 52.2 per cent of those gilt-edged opportunities.

Woltemade is the only other forward who has had at least half of his side's big chances, recording six of Newcastle's 12. 

While Thiago and Welbeck again feature highly here, it's the former's numbers that really catch the eye. Brentford's 20 big chances over the last five Gameweeks rank second, and Thiago has had nine of those. Brighton, by contrast, have only managed nine across their whole team. 

Players' percentage of clubs' big chances, GW5-9

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The table above also shows that premium picks such as Liverpool's Alexander Isak (£10.5m) and Arsenal's Viktor Gyokeres (£9.0m) have been far less influential in their first season with their new clubs.

Isak has had just four of Liverpool's 19 big chances, or 21.1 per cent, while Gyokeres' three big chances account for just 20 per cent of Arsenal's 15. 

Who has the best fixtures?

Factoring in each club's upcoming schedule over the next six Gameweeks will also help to refine your search.

According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), where the difficulty of each fixture is ranked from one to five - with one being the easiest possible match and five being the hardest - there are nine clubs whose average is under 3.0 across that period, with Chelsea, Liverpool, Brighton and Manchester United leading the way on 2.7 each.

As shown by the big-chances table above, Liverpool's Isak has at least matched Brighton's Welbeck for shots in the box and big chances, suggesting he is one to monitor when the Reds' schedule turns particularly kind in Gameweek 13.

Similarly, Man Utd's Benjamin Sesko (£7.3m) also impresses in that table. He's matched Woltemade for shots, and is just one behind the German for shots in the box and big chances.

Elsewhere, Newcastle and Palace's kind schedules give both Woltemade and Mateta the opportunity to keep rewarding their recent raft of new owners.

Woltemade was the most-bought player in both Gameweeks 8 and 9, earning 903,000 and 996,000 transfers in respectively. Three of Newcastle's next seven matches - against West Ham, Burnley and Sunderland - score only two in the FDR.

Mateta has three home matches in the next four Gameweeks, against Brentford, Brighton and Man Utd. Indeed, NONE of Palace's next six matches scores more than three in the FDR, with visits to Wolverhampton Wanderers, Burnley and Fulham also on their agenda.

Finally, Bournemouth's Kroupi could prove outstanding value if he can retain a starting role. Over Gameweeks 12-14, all three of the Cherries' matches against West Ham, Sunderland and Everton score just two in the FDR.

Clubs with best schedules, next six Gameweeks

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So, who is the best Joao Pedro replacement?

Mateta's hugely impressive player statistics show just why he is the top target for managers' forward lines in Gameweek 10.

The Frenchman is outperforming Haaland for goal threat, and his involvement in Palace's big chances shows that their attack is all about providing him with quality opportunities.

When those factors are added to his kind fixture schedule, it suggests that Mateta still remains overlooked by managers, with an ownership of just 15 per cent. 

Woltemade's importance to Newcastle is also very apparent ahead of his own kind schedule, while Thiago's wealth of scoring chances makes him the best of the budget picks, with both Welbeck and Kroupi's scoring rates clearly unsustainable.