Forest set for another big change of style with Dyche's direct tactics

Football writer Alex Keble analyses what Sean Dyche will bring to Nottingham Forest, which players could thrive, and how the team's identity might evolve.

Nottingham Forest are on to their third permanent manager of the season with the appointment of Sean Dyche shortly after the 39-day reign of Ange Postecoglou came to an end with the 3-0 defeat by Chelsea.

It is another stylistic change in the dugout, but is Dyche is the right fit for Forest at this stage of the season?

Dyche's direct football

Dyche was a big success at Burnley over a 10-year period, turning Championship relegation candidates into Premier League mainstays with a brand of no-nonsense football that for many harked back to the past.

But that is a simplified version of events. Burnley’s dogged defending under Dyche was often carried out in a mid block, not a low block, and their direct football was a case of quick transitions rather than aimless hoofs forward.

At their best, Burnley’s style was closer to the original idea of Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid than it was "park the bus" football.

Dyche's Premier League managerial record

Scroll across to see full table on mobile
*18th when Dyche left, 18th final position
**16th when Dyche left, 16th final position

While at Everton the general impression was that Dyche went further into a more defensive idea, framed by a spell in which goals were hard to come by. 

However, he kept Everton up in his first few months in charge towards the end of the 2022/23 season, and he then took the club to a 15th-place finish in 2023/24 despite an eight-point deduction, before lasting just five months of the following campaign.

Comparing Dyche's tenures in the PL

It was towards the end of his only full season in charge of Everton that Dyche laid out his tactical mantra, shortly after ending a 13-match winless run with an impressive 2-0 victory over Liverpool.

“I like direct football,” he said. “When you talk about playing direct football, people presuppose you mean kicking the ball down the pitch. It doesn’t mean that at all. How many times can you turn and play forwards? That is direct football. You have to penetrate.

“Passing it around the six-yard line is not for me. I don’t see value in that.”

Stats show Dyche is even more reactive than Nuno

That is Dyche in a nutshell: no time for pretty patterns, and a belief in a more urgent way of playing that builds from a solid foundation.

His usual 4-4-2 formation became a 4-4-1-1 at Everton, where Abdoulaye Doucoure was used as a box-crashing battering ram in the No 10 role. Repeat: this is not Ange-ball.

Comparing the Premier League records of Dyche’s Everton, Nuno Espirito Santo’s Forest, and Postecoglou’s Tottenham Hotspur, we see just how big the jump has been – first to Ange, then boomeranging back to something more defensive with Dyche.

There is a lot to unpack in the table below. Dyche and Nuno are effectively level on "direct speed" and "direct attacks per game", but it is instructive the new head coach plays a significantly higher proportion of passes long, as is the drop in "10+ passes in open-play sequences" per game.

It tells us what the eye also sees: Forest have swapped lightning, modern counter-attacks under Nuno for a more old-fashioned hit-the-target-man approach.

Dyche also has a lower average of possession, and although he concedes goals at the same rate as the other two sides, he scores at a dramatically lower rate; by sitting deep, and by going long, Dyche teams struggle to hit the back of the net.

Forest, then, move from being wide open to very cautious; from entertaining to not so exciting. That is not necessarily a bad thing.

Comparing Dyche’s Everton to Nuno’s Forest, and Postecoglou’s Spurs

*Direct speed - measured in metres/second is the speed at which a team move the ball towards the opponents' goal.
**PPDA - passes allowed per defensive action. Measuring how aggressive a team are at interrupting an opponents' spell of possession. The lower the number, the more effective the press.

How will Dyche fix the problems and which players will thrive?

The first thing Dyche will do is get his 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1 in place. If Forest can rediscover a solid base, they should be able to patch up a leaky defence.

Postecoglou conceded 11 goals from set-pieces in just eight matches in all competitions. Incidentally, a remarkable 41.9 per cent of goals scored by Dyche’s Premier League teams have been set-pieces; improving at both ends should come easily to the new boss.

On the other hand, Dyche’s Premier League win ratio stands at 27.9 per cent, well below Nuno’s 39.4 per cent and Postecoglou’s 43.4 per cent, although the squad are a good fit for the new appointment.

Dyche has already successfully worked with Forest's powerful target man Chris Wood at Burnley; Callum Hudson-Odoi can provide the width and dribbling as Dwight McNeil did at Turf Moor and Goodison; and Morgan Gibbs-White has the strength to pick up second balls just like Doucoure did at Everton.

In defence, Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo will be relieved to return to a deep defensive line. In fact, a lot of Nuno’s conservative tactical instincts are aligned (broadly speaking) with Dyche’s, so the defensive organisation might happen quickly.

However, Elliot Anderson and Douglas Luiz might need to adapt under a head coach who has had little interest in passing out from the back. Both could be repurposed as No 6s who ping long balls forward.

Stability and consistency

Whatever Dyche chooses to do, stability and consistency is the order. In 2023/24, seven Everton players started at least 28 Premier League matches, in a side who topped the charts for long balls attempted (3,057) and finished 18th for possession (40.8%).

It will be closer to the football that brought Nuno success at the City Ground.

Whether it will be assertive or adventurous enough for Forest - a club hoping to push on after a seventh-place finish last season - is a harder question to answer.