The Scout assesses the form and fixtures to help determine the best forwards for managers in Fantasy Premier League to invest in.
Who are the form forwards in FPL?
Erling Haaland (£14.5m) is, quite simply, a must-have for your forward line.
The Manchester City star holds a 31-point advantage over any other player in his position in Fantasy, earning 70 points in the opening seven Gameweeks thanks to nine goals and an assist.
Notably, Haaland has become the most-owned player in Fantasy over the international break and his output over the last four Gameweeks only furthers his claim as an essential pick.
The Norwegian has six goals, an assist and 11 bonus points in that spell, helping him to 46 points - that's the same as the COMBINED total of his nearest rivals here, Nick Woltemade (£7.2m) and Jarrod Bowen (£7.7m).
Newcastle United's Woltemade is among a trio of summer signings who are now starting to make an impact in Fantasy. The German has blanked in just one of his four outings since joining the Magpies, averaging 6.0 points per match.
Manchester United's Benjamin Sesko (£7.3m) and Leeds United's Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.5m) are also impressing at their new clubs. The former has 17 points in the last two Gameweeks, scoring in back-to-back contests against Brentford and Sunderland.
West Ham United's Bowen, meanwhile, has scored and earned nine points in three of his last five outings, blanking only against Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal.
It's fair to say the rest of the forwards in Fantasy have been a major disappointment recently.
Indeed, the seven in the table are the only players in that position to be involved in (score or assist) more then one goal over Gameweeks 4-7.
Most pts, Gameweeks 4-7
Forward | G | A | Bonus | Pts |
---|---|---|---|---|
Haaland | 6 | 1 | 11 | 46 |
Woltemade | 3 | 0 | 4 | 24 |
Bowen | 2 | 0 | 6 | 22 |
Sesko | 2 | 0 | 5 | 20 |
Thiago | 2 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
Calvert-Lewin | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17 |
Welbeck | 2 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
Scroll across on mobile to see the full table
Who has the best fixtures?
Assessing each club's upcoming schedules over the next four-to-six Gameweeks is one of the simplest ways of refining your search.
According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), where the difficulty of each fixture is ranked from one to five - with one being the easiest possible match and five being the hardest - it's Chelsea who are set for the best run of opponents across Gameweeks 8-13.
The Blues' six matches average just 2.7, with three of them - against Sunderland, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley - scoring only two. Indeed, with a match against Leeds United in Gameweek 14, Enzo Maresca's side are set to face ALL three promoted clubs in their upcoming seven fixtures.
Chelsea's next seven fixtures
GW | Opp. | FDR* |
8 | Nott'm Forest (A) | 3 |
---|---|---|
9 | Sunderland (H) | 2 |
10 | Spurs (A) | 3 |
11 | Wolves (H) | 2 |
12 | Burnley (A) | 2 |
13 | Arsenal (H) | 4 |
14 | Leeds (A) | 2 |
*1 = easiest possible fixture, 5 = hardest possible fixture
This suggests Joao Pedro (£7.7m) could get back to his best after a run of three straight blanks. Although he has been surpassed by Haaland as the most-picked player in Fantasy, the Brazilian can still be found in a hefty 61 per cent of squads and a return to form could do considerable damage to your rank if you go without him.
Meanwhile, over the next four Gameweeks, Arsenal, Leeds and West Ham are all identical to Chelsea - they have two matches which score two in the FDR, and the average for their four matches is 2.5.
That looks good news for Calvert-Lewin and Bowen, while the 26 per cent of managers holding the Gunners' Viktor Gyokeres (£9.1m) will be hoping he can improve upon a run of five blanks in his first seven outings.
Brentford's Igor Thiago (£6.1m) and Brighton & Hove Albion's Danny Welbeck (£6.3m) also tick the form and fixtures boxes.
Both have scored twice in their last four outings and play for one of the seven clubs whose average FDR score in the next six Gameweeks is under 3.0.
Sunderland's Wilson Isidor (£5.6m) and Wolves' Jorgen Strand Larsen (£6.4m) are also worth a mention here due to their short-term schedules.
Sunderland play at home to both Wolves and Everton in the next three Gameweeks, while Wolves host Burnley after visiting the Black Cats this weekend, giving them back-to-back contests with promoted opponents.
Club | No of matches with 2, next 4 GWs | Average FDR, next 4 GWs | No of matches with 2, next 6 GWs | Average FDR, next 6 GWs |
---|---|---|---|---|
Chelsea | 2 | 2.5 | 3 | 2.7 |
Arsenal | 2 | 2.5 | 2 | 2.8 |
Leeds | 2 | 2.5 | 2 | 2.8 |
West Ham | 2 | 2.5 | 2 | 2.8 |
Burnley | 2 | 2.8 | 2 | 2.8 |
Brentford | 1 | 3.0 | 2 | 2.8 |
Brighton | 1 | 2.8 | 1 | 2.8 |
Scroll across on mobile to see the full table
Who's had the greatest attacking potential recently?
An assessment of each player's involvement in big chances, or situations where the player is expected to score, is also revealing.
Listed below are the forwards who have been involved in the most big chances over the last four Gameweeks, with the main strikers among the seven clubs above also added when necessary as reference.
Again, it's all about Haaland, with the Norwegian ranking top for every statistic in the table below.
He's had 15 shots in the box and eight big chances, while creating a further two of them - that means he's been involved in 10 big chances in the last four Gameweeks.
Crystal Palace's Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.5m) is Haaland's nearest rival with seven big chances and eight big-chance involvements. The Frenchman is one to consider after his upcoming matches with AFC Bournemouth and Arsenal.
Calvert-Lewin's five big chances suggest he could be the best short-term budget asset at such a low cost of £5.5m.
Just behind him, Gyokeres' 12 shots in the box are the most impressive among a host of players with four big-chance involvements. Those include Woltemade, Sesko and Liverpool's new forward Alexander Isak (£10.6m), who only appeared in three matches in that spell.
Joao Pedro's recent toils are shown by his one shot in the box, although this drop-off is partly down to Chelsea having to play with 10 men for part of two of those matches due to a sending off.
Big-chance involvement, last four Gameweeks
Player | Shots in box | Big chances | Big chances created | Big-chance inv. |
---|---|---|---|---|
Haaland | 15 | 8 | 2 | 10 |
Mateta | 10 | 7 | 1 | 8 |
Calvert-Lewin | 7 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
Gyokeres | 12 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
Woltemade | 7 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
Sesko | 6 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
Isak | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
Welbeck | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Thiago | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Foster | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Joao Pedro | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Bowen | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Scroll across on mobile to see the full table
So, who are the best forwards to own?
Haaland is an obvious must-have, with the statistics showing why he will be a huge captaincy pick regardless of opponent.
If you're planning to play with two up front due to the lack of options right now, then Bowen could be the best option. Not only does he have the fixtures, his role as West Ham's talisman means he should also earn bonus points whenever he scores. Mateta is another to consider here from Gameweek 10.
Among the rest of the forwards, Gyokeres does appear the most likely to reward you due to his fixtures and goal threat. However, whether the Swede is even one of the best three Arsenal picks is very debatable right now and it looks better to invest in their defence and midfield.
Joao Pedro, meanwhile, will be a huge risk to go without due to his huge ownership, particularly if Cole Palmer (£10.3m) comes back from injury soon for Chelsea.
If you're playing with three up front, owning the Brazilian certainly looks the most risk-averse strategy, given his great upcoming run of opponents.