With the Premier League paused for the international break, football writer Alex Keble assesses the early state of play in the title race.
We are only seven matches into the 2025/26 Premier League season but already the title race is shaping up to be a classic.
Here, we take a look at what has happened so far, and explain why the next four rounds of fixtures will have a huge impact on the destination of the trophy.
And you can have your say on who YOU think will win the title by clicking the link below and voting in our poll.
What we've learned so far: Arsenal are favourites but a three-horse race is likely
Arsenal are the early front-runners, jumping above Liverpool last weekend to hold a one-point lead at the top of the table, despite an initial narrative that had the Gunners pegged as overly cautious and the reigning champions as virtually unassailable.
Liverpool had a 100 per cent record after the first five matches, and after spending a reported fee of over £400million on new signings this summer (including breaking the Premier League transfer record) that was enough to convince many that Arne Slot’s side would retain the title at a canter.
But four of their five victories required late winners that papered over the cracks, and under the surface, Liverpool weren’t playing particularly well. Consecutive defeats in the Premier League have allowed Arsenal to steadily climb above them and in between, the Reds also lost in the UEFA Champions League.
In August and September, Mikel Arteta was accused of failing to take off the handbrake. All of a sudden, Arsenal’s quiet control looks like an appealing contrast to Liverpool’s more fractured performances.
Manchester City have also brought back some order and consistency to their performances after a disappointing 2024/25 season, although their position – three points off the top – is predominantly thanks to fantastic individual performances from Erling Haaland (nine goals in seven league appearances), Jeremy Doku and Phil Foden, the latter revitalised in a more central role.
Chelsea were expected to move up a notch after winning the FIFA Club World Cup in the summer, but so far they have been as inconsistent as in 2024/25, although beating Liverpool at Stamford Bridge last weekend could be the catalyst for a more mature, title-ready team.
A three-way race seems more likely. Arsenal have never looked so experienced and have never had such a deep bench; Man City are gradually returning to their old selves; and Liverpool will surely improve when the likes of Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz settle.
The fixture list suggests Arsenal might pull further ahead
Arsenal’s rise to the top is even more impressive considering the calibre of opponent so far. They have already navigated trips to Old Trafford, Anfield, and St James' Park, as well as hosting Man City.
The upcoming fixtures look a lot simpler for Arsenal than they do for their title-race rivals. In the next four matches before the November international break, the current league leaders face Crystal Palace at home and Burnley, Fulham and Sunderland away.
Arteta will demand four wins from four, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be unexpected obstacles. Arsenal's title challenges have come unstuck in the past against deep-lying defensive teams. When the pressure to sweep aside a club lower in the table has mounted, Arteta's side have seemed unable to withstand the demand, which led to them dropping points.
Fulham at Craven Cottage might make a few Arsenal supporters nervous then, while Palace’s 19-game unbeaten run only just ended. If the Gunners can win these matches – and get through physical battles against promoted sides at Turf Moor and the Stadium of Light – then they will emerge as clear favourites to lift the Premier League Trophy.
Liverpool and Man City have it tougher – before facing off in November
Things are more complicated for the chasers.
Slot will hope to reset over the international break, making a few tweaks to improve Liverpool’s set-up, and yet he faces a daunting set of games in which to try things out.
Manchester United and Aston Villa at home and Brentford away are hard enough, but Liverpool round off the next four-game stretch with a trip to Man City.
Ruben Amorim’s Man Utd are fresh from a win against Sunderland that boosted their morale, although they previously lost at Brentford, whose rugged approach also defeated Villa at the Gtech Community Stadium in August. More recently, Villa have built a four-game winning streak and look to be getting back to their best under Unai Emery.
Man City only have it marginally easier than Liverpool. Everton and AFC Bournemouth at home, and Villa away, is a run that features three of the Premier League’s most in-form teams. Pep Guardiola's side are by no means guaranteed to get three points in any of those matches.
All of which means both Liverpool and Man City could be further behind Arsenal when they go head-to-head on 9 November, right before the final international break that precedes the busy Christmas period.
It could be a season-defining meeting for Liverpool and Man City, and it may provide an opportunity for Chelsea to sneak through the middle.
Will Chelsea and Spurs join the race?
Enzo Maresca's side have three seemingly winnable matches coming up — away to Nottingham Forest, and at home to Sunderland and Wolverhampton Wanderers — but also a massive test against Tottenham Hotspur in north London.
Spurs, who are currently in third place, also have Villa and Man Utd at home and Everton away in their next four fixtures.
Bournemouth and Palace are also in the chasing pack
Given their strong starts to the season, fourth-placed Bournemouth and FA Cup holders Palace, presently one point and place above Chelsea, also deserve to be in the title-race conversation at the moment.
After facing each other when the Premier League resumes on 18 October, their next three fixtures before November's international break feature only one "Big Six" club apiece.
Bournemouth visit Man City in Matchweek 10, between a home meeting with Forest and a trip to Villa.
Palace travel to Arsenal in Matchweek 9, and then have back-to-back home matches against Brentford and Brighton & Hove Albion.
By the end of the next four Matchweeks, we will surely know a lot more about how many clubs can go the distance in the title race this season.