Arsenal take control of title race as Liverpool flaws are exposed again

At times it was hard to make sense of a tetchy and frenetic evening at Stamford Bridge, but when Chelsea found the back of the net in stoppage time, the story emerged: Estevao’s winner has reshaped the Premier League title race. 

Arsenal will spend the next two weeks basking at the top of the Premier League table, a turnaround that owes as much to Liverpool’s sudden decline as Mikel Arteta releasing the handbrake. 

If there was any doubt we would get a proper title scrap this year, Chelsea’s 2-1 victory against Arne Slot’s Liverpool was final proof. The champions not only lacked fluency but were ultimately beaten by defensive vulnerabilities that are starting to look a serious problem. 

Watch: Liverpool's late wins and defeats

In short, they lacked control; the very attribute that had defined Arsenal’s first two months of 2025/26.  

Liverpool regress to the mean to give Arsenal advantage 

The more the season wears on the more those late Liverpool winners in their first four Premier League games look signs of fragility, not resilience. 

They have now lost three matches in a row in all competitions, all away from home and all, it has to be said, deserved. 

Chelsea pressed brilliantly in the first half, their three central midfielders, including usual right-back Malo Gusto, successfully going man-to-man on the Liverpool midfield to create a stuttering display from the visitors. 

How Chelsea matched Liverpool’s formation

Things descended into something much wilder in the second, but it was Chelsea who carved out the winning moment thanks to poor defending from a makeshift Liverpool back line that, by that point, contained two central midfielders in Ryan Gravenberch and Dominik Szoboszlai. 

It is a recurring theme. Issues in the full-back positions and openness to the counter-attack are well documented, hence why Chelsea’s game plan was to target these areas, leading to the Marc Cucurella cross for Estevao’s winner. 

More worrying still, Liverpool have been overperforming their “expected points” this season, with Opta measuring them at only 9.4 xPoints, the eighth most in the division. 

Expected points table

In other words, Liverpool haven’t gone through a dip in form this last week. They’ve regressed to the mean. 

Arsenal ‘handbrake’ no longer looks so bad 

Liverpool’s frantic and unwieldy performance tonight was symptomatic of their season. Worse, it stood in stark contrast to the serenity of Arsenal’s 2-0 victory over West Ham United earlier in the day. 

Arteta started Eberechi Eze and Martin Odegaard together in midfield for the first time, playing expansively and getting the reward with a first-half Declan Rice goal, after which the final result was never in doubt. 

The Gunners are top of the league, leaping above Liverpool to effectively nullify their defeat at Anfield earlier in the campaign, which was their only negative result to date. 

Arteta has come under fire from some quarters for supposedly being too cautios in big matches, but tonight he will feel fully vindicated.  

There will be more than a few pundits eating their words after another stoic, orderly, and controlled Arsenal performance saw them stroll into first. 

Arsenal top, as expected

Arsenal are joint-top of Opta’s “expected points” table, incidentally, with 11.7 xPoints. They are also division-leading in Expected Goals Against (3.9), goals conceded (three), and indeed goals scored (14). 

What, then, was all the fuss about? The complaints were overblown. 

Arsenal’s perceived conservatism in the 1-1 draw with Manchester City boiled down to picking Mikel Merino ahead of Eze in midfield, despite the latter being new to the club and a novice as a No 8. 

Once Pep Guardiola’s defensive game plan was revealed in the first half, Arteta promptly brought Eze on. 

In the 1-0 defeat at Anfield, Arsenal were said to have failed to go for the jugular following the four goals Liverpool had conceded against Bournemouth and Newcastle, yet in both of those games Liverpool’s opponents found space by sitting deep and counter-attacking. 

A clash between title challengers presents a completely different tactical battle. Showing caution at Anfield is a perfectly valid strategy – and one that would have worked was it not for a 40-yard Szoboszlai free-kick. 

These will become mainstream opinions now, as Arsenal’s first six rounds of the 2025/26 Premier League season are hastily reassessed.  

As Liverpool skid off-track, Arteta will probably be applauded for their dexterity with the handbrake. 

Chelsea midfield impresses, but injuries make title push difficult 

Enzo Maresca’s side weren’t exactly in control of this match either, and although they celebrated wildly at the final whistle it remains to be seen if Chelsea will be able to match Arsenal and Liverpool. 

Yet more injuries at the back left Chelsea with just one senior centre-back, Jorrel Hato, in the squad. The international break comes at a very good time, although it remains to be seen how serious the injuries were to Benoit Badiashile and Josh Acheampong. 

Chelsea were impressive in midfield, however, with Moises Caicedo and Gusto particularly excelling, both in the man-to-man defensive job and for the first goal, their one-two cutting open the Liverpool midfield. 

The late winner leaves Chelsea in sixth – in line, as it happens, with their xPoints position – and five points behind Arsenal.  

It was a job well done for Chelsea this evening, and particularly impressive to have bounced back after the defeat by Brighton & Hove Albion last weekend. But Maresca - like Slot - might want to spend the international break working out how to find greater balance to his side.