Why a three-horse title race looks likelier than ever

We are only six matches into the new Premier League season but clear trends are emerging. 

Liverpool are looking more vulnerable, Arsenal are digging deep, and Manchester City’s rebuild is showing mixed results.

Here, football writer Alex Keble analyses how the title race is shaping up.

Liverpool’s defeat at Palace tells us they won’t run away with title

Liverpool cannot say they were not warned. Even before Crystal Palace’s 2-1 victory last weekend burst Liverpool’s bubble, Arne Slot’s team had shown defensive vulnerabilities. 

Full-back Milos Kerkez has struggled, giving up big chances, but there are even more pressing concerns on the right side (the location of both Palace goals) where Jeremie Frimpong and Conor Bradley have looked vulnerable, thanks, in part, to some wayward performances from Ibrahima Konate.

Watch: Palace's winner against Liverpool

The issues aren’t just about the form of Liverpool’s back four. In midfield, Florian Wirtz is yet to really get going (in games he has started Liverpool look light in the middle) while Slot’s decision to play two advanced full-backs has allowed opponents to counter-attack far too easily. 

Liverpool have faced six fast breaks, the third-most in the division, and conceded two goals from fast breaks, the second-most behind Manchester United. Eight clubs have conceded fewer than Liverpool’s seven goals, too. 

None of this is disastrous. Slot is still finding the right balance, but at the moment Liverpool’s high line is being breached too often and opposition counter-attacks are exposing issues around Kerkez, Bradley/Frimpong, Konate and Wirtz. 

It tells us to expect a real title challenge. Liverpool will be dropping points. 

Arsenal passing major tests suggests a brilliant two-way battle 

That is fantastic news for neutrals but most of all for Arsenal, who have emerged over the last six weeks as the most likely challengers to Liverpool, despite what so much of the ‘‘handbrake’’ discourse has suggested. 

Arsenal have already ticked off trips to Old Trafford, Anfield and St James' Park, and have also hosted Man City. They emerged from that difficult start with just one negative result, a 1-0 defeat at the champions courtesy of a simply unstoppable late Dominik Szoboszlai free-kick. 

Complaints that Mikel Arteta plays with too much conservatism were blown out of the water by a fizzing, urgent performance against Newcastle United highlighted by a dramatic late comeback.

Watch: Highlights of Arsenal's win at Newcastle

Arsenal have barely put a foot wrong, besides, according to some, not starting Eberechi Eze against Man City and prioritising their defence against Liverpool. 

What’s more, they showed the mettle of potential champions in the turnaround win at Newcastle, which could be the springboard to a newly confident Arsenal ready to push Liverpool all the way. 

They don’t look likely to falter this time. There is almost nothing to choose between the current top two. 

Man City are on their way back and can be expected to accelerate 

There is certainly more of a question mark over Man City. 

Ten points from six Premier League matches are four fewer than this stage last season, although Pep Guardiola will have expected his dramatic summer rebuild to take a little time to come together. 

The changes are significant. City are leaning more towards transitions and away from traditional Guardiola tactics, with longer balls played in behind for Erling Haaland and a greater emphasis placed on the directness of Jeremy Doku, as the stats show.

City are attacking at greater speed compared with last season, with their direct speed of 1.6 metres per second in 2025/26 increasing from 1.4 the previous campaign.

They are also producing fewer 10+ open-play pass sequences per match this season, which shows their willingness to get the ball higher up the pitch in a quicker fashion.

City's direct speed and pass sequence, 24/25 v 25/26 compared

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However, four wins from their last five in all competitions hints at an improvement, and indeed Man City have historically sped up as the season goes on. They are a negligible five points off Liverpool at the moment; there is plenty of time for things to click, especially with Phil Foden returning to his best form. 

Guardiola has never gone two years in a row without winning a league title. It would be foolish to write off Man City, making a three-horse race genuinely likely. 

Chelsea and Spurs don’t quite have enough 

There are some unusual sights in the Premier League table right now. Crystal Palace, Sunderland, and AFC Bournemouth are in the top six, while Chelsea, Newcastle and Aston Villa are all underperforming. 

It’s a sign of a very competitive division from which no more than three will emerge to compete at the top. 

Many assumed Chelsea might make the final push this season after winning the FIFA Club World Cup, but they do not currently look any better than in 2024/25, having dropped points in four of their six matches to date. 

It already feels possibly too late for Enzo Maresca’s side to challenge the other three, as may well be confirmed if Liverpool win at Stamford Bridge this weekend. 

Tottenham Hotspur made a fast start but a couple of draws have put things in perspective. Nobody thought Thomas Frank could challenge for the title after joining in the summer and, after what happened with Ange Postecoglou following his brilliant start in 2023/24, it’s probably good for the club that the pressure has been taken off. 

Next five rounds point to the three-horse race tightening 

That leaves us with three clubs in contention, and looking ahead to the next five rounds, they should draw closer together in the weeks ahead.

Liverpool face a tough set of fixtures, any of which could go against them, to the point where the Matchweek 11 showdown with Man City might allow Guardiola’s side to go above the champions. 

But Man City also have some tough places to visit. City collected only one point from trips to Brentford and Villa last season; it will be a stern test of whether Guardiola’s reboot has legs, but if they pass, Man City will feel they can push on and reclaim the title. 

Arsenal’s fixtures get easier from here, so much so that it would be a surprise if they were not top of the Premier League after Matchweek 11. 

But we’ve seen too many surprises already this season to state anything with confidence, other than to say: the title race is on.