What to do with Joao Pedro in Fantasy?

The Scout analyses the form of Joao Pedro (£7.8m) as sales of the Chelsea forward escalate in Fantasy Premier League ahead of Friday's 18:30 BST deadline.

Joao Pedro is the most-owned player in Fantasy, with an ownership of 65 per cent, but he is the second MOST-SOLD player in Gameweek 7, after Liverpool's Mohamed Salah (£14.5m), with 385,000+ managers parting company ahead of the pair's head-to-head at Stamford Bridge on Saturday evening.

There are two main reasons for that recent exodus.

The first one is down to form. After starting the season with two goals and three assists across the Blues' first four matches, Joao Pedro has blanked in defeats to Manchester United and Brighton & Hove Albion over the last two Gameweeks.

The second one is due to the growing competition for places in managers' forward lines.

Manchester City's Erling Haaland (£14.4m) is simply a must-have on the back of his eight goals and an assist over the first six Gameweeks. 

Meanwhile, Arsenal's Viktor Gyokeres (£9.0m) has a great upcoming run of opponents, facing West Ham United, Burnley and Sunderland in the next five Gameweeks.

So should Joao Pedro's owners keep or sell him? Let's have a look at the data. 

Why has Joao Pedro lost form in FPL?

There's an easy explanation as to why Joao Pedro has suffered back-to-back blanks - Chelsea have had a player sent off in both those losses.

In the match against Man Utd, goalkeeper Robert Sanchez (£4.9m) was dismissed after just five minutes, while centre-back Trevoh Chalobah (£5.2m) was dismissed on 53 minutes against Brighton.

As a result, Joao Pedro has had ZERO shots over the last two Gameweeks and has created four chances.

There's no surprise to also learn that Chelsea's attacking potential was significantly dented, with their total of 18 shots in the last two Gameweeks the second-lowest of all clubs.

A comparison of Chelsea's goal threat highlights the understandably significant drop-off in goal threat of late.

The Blues' shots in the box have almost halved, dropping from 10.2 to 5.5 per match, while their big chances - or situations where the player is expected to score - are down from 3.5 to 1.5.

Chelsea attacking statistics comparison

Crucially, Chelsea's statistics over the first four Gameweeks were among the very best in the league. 

Their 60 shots and 41 shots in the box both ranked second, while their 14 big chances - or situations where the player is expected to score - were more than any other side.

By also using the first four Gameweeks as a better gauge of Joao Pedro's potential, he sat second only to Haaland for big-chance involvement thanks to his all-round style of play.

The Brazilian had two big chances and created three more for his team-mates, meaning he was involved in five big chances.

Gyokeres was second only to Haaland for big chances, with a total of four, though, while Fulham's Rodrigo Muniz (£5.5m) and Crystal Palace's Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.5m) also bettered Joao Pedro here with three each.

Best attacking threat among forwards, GW1-4

Scroll across to see the full table on mobile

Which forwards have good form and fixtures?

Focussing on each club's upcoming schedule can help you refine the search for a new forward.

As shown by the table below, it's clear to see why Gyokeres has emerged as a key figure to go alongside Haaland in managers' line-ups.

According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), where the difficulty of each fixture is ranked from one to five - with one being the easiest possible match and five being the hardest - THREE of their next five matches score just two.

As the table also highlights, however, Chelsea also have one of the very best schedules ahead.

Their next six matches average 2.7 in the FDR, second only to the 2.5 of Arsenal. And THREE of those matches - against Sunderland, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley - score only two.

Elsewhere, West Ham's Jarrod Bowen (£7.7m), Brighton's Danny Welbeck (£6.3m) and Newcastle's Nick Woltemade (£7.1m) have all scored twice in the last three Gameweeks and have the schedules to maintain that momentum.

Clubs' average FDR, next six Gameweeks

An assessment of players from those clubs in the table above highlights the recent displays of Leeds' Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.5m).

The forward made his debut in Gameweek 3 and has had four big chances, more than any of his rivals.

Welbeck is his closest challenger, on three big chances, although both of his last outings have been off the bench for Brighton.

In terms of quantity, Isidor and Gyokeres are the leading candidates, with 12 and 10 shots in the box respectively over the last four Gameweeks. Both did, however, only have two big chances by contrast.

Bowen's all-round style of play is noticeable here, too. West Ham's talisman scored three goals across this spell, in addition to creating two big chances. 

Woltemade's four shots from the box are across only three appearances since joining the Magpies and his pitch-time is clearly being intially managed by Eddie Howe, with just one of those outings lasting more than 70 minutes. 

It's also worth mentioning Palace's Mateta here. He's not included in the table as his upcoming fixtures are tough, with a visit to Everton preceding matches against Bournemouth and Arsenal. However, his six big chances ranked second only to the nine of Haaland in the last four Gameweeks. 

Attacking threat, last four Gameweeks

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So, what should Joao Pedro owners do?

When it comes to managers' forward lines right now, it should be Haaland plus two others. The upcoming fixtures, added to the big-chance involvement stats, suggest both Gyokeres and Joao Pedro merit a place alongside the Man City star for many Gameweeks to come.

Indeed, with Cole Palmer (£10.3m) expected back soon after the international break, there could soon be an argument on tripling up on Chelsea, judging by their attacking numbers over the first four Gameweeks.

It's also worth noting that Joao Pedro will now miss the Blues' UEFA Champions League match at home to Ajax in between Gameweeks 8 and 9 due to suspension, which is likely to boost his minutes in the Premier League.

From Gameweek 9, Chelsea embark on an eight-match run where FIVE of their matches score just two - the best run in the league.

Maresca's side play ALL three promoted clubs, as well as welcoming both Wolves and Everton to Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea's fixtures, GW9-16

*1 = easiest possible fixture, 5 = hardest possible fixture

If you're keen to part company with the Chelsea forward, then Gyokeres, Bowen and Mateta are the forwards to target in the same price range, while Isidor's volume of shots and kind fixtures mark him out as the likeliest budget candidate to succeed.