Is it time to consider a four-man defence in FPL?

The Scout delves into the data to determine whether managers should move to a four-man defence in Fantasy Premier League.

After four Gameweeks of the season, defenders are holding their own at the top of the player standings.

As many as four of the 10 top-scoring players are defenders, with Arsenal pair Jurrien Timber and Riccardo Calafiori (both £5.7m) ranked third and joint-fourth overall on 34 and 33 points respectively.

Similarly to Arsenal, both Crystal Palace and Tottenham Hotspur have kept three clean sheets, with Marc Guehi (£4.6m) and Guglielmo Vicario (£5.1m) each claiming 29 points.

From a budget perspective, this has been good news for managers in Fantasy due to the relatively low costs of goalkeepers and defenders.

Indeed, Guehi is the best-value player so far, returning 6.2 points per million (PPM) spent.

Interestingly, the current World No 1 has started with a four-man defence in three of the first four Gameweeks.

Top-scoring players, GW1-4

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Which clubs have the most clean sheets?

As many as four clubs have kept three clean sheets over the first four Gameweeks, with Newcastle United joining Arsenal, Palace and Spurs at the top of the table below.

One of the main surprises early on has been the success of the promoted clubs, with Leeds United and Sunderland among the eight clubs who have a 50 per cent success rate for clean sheets.

As a result, there are only four clubs who have failed to keep a clean sheet - Brighton & Hove Albion, Manchester United, Nottingham Forest and Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Clean sheets, GW1-4

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How does that compare to last season?

A comparison with the first four Gameweeks of last season shows there has been a dramatic turnaround in defensive returns so far.

As many as NINE clubs were still without a clean sheet at this point in 2024/25, while only two - Arsenal and Liverpool - had kept three of them.

Only five clubs had managed to keep more than one clean sheet at this stage in 2024/25, compared with 12 this time around.

The contrast with the promoted clubs is also stark - this season's trio have a combined five - they had managed only one after four Gameweeks in the previous campaign.

Clean sheets in GW1-4, 24/25

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What do the underlying numbers tell us?

By digging a little deeper and looking at big chances, or situations where a player is expected to score, you can get a better idea of how resilient the clubs have been.

This season, West Ham United have the worst record for conceding big chances, allowing their opponents 12 of them across the first four Gameweeks.

Along with Aston Villa, Burnley, Forest and Man Utd, they are one of five clubs who have conceded at least 10 big chances.

By looking at last season's numbers, you can immediately see that is an improvement. Indeed, West Ham's total of 12 wouldn't even have been enough to clinch a place in the worst five from 2024/25.

Whereas last season's worst five had conceded a hefty 80 big chances between them at this point, this term's have been a lot more resilient, allowing just 55.

Big chances conceded in GW1-4, 24/25 v 25/26 

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By using this statistic and applying it to the last 10 seasons over Gameweeks 1-4, it seems that managers were perhaps spoiled for attacking returns early on in 2022/23 and 2023/24. 

The worst five clubs conceded a combined 74 and 80 big chances respectively, far and away the worst totals in the assessment. 

This allowed managers to confidently attack the fixtures, knowing that a number of clubs were likely to give their opponents plenty of quality scoring opportunities. 

This season is more in line with the numbers beforehand - indeed, the worst five clubs for big chances conceded at this point have only allowed a combined 60+ in three of the last 10 campaigns.

Worst five defences, GW1-4

What impact have defensive contribution points had so far?

In terms of reliability, defenders already look to have an advantage over midfielders in the new defensive contribution points metric. 

Of the 25 players to have earned at least four points for their defensive contributions, 17 are defenders and eight are midfielders.

All 17 of those defenders are centre-backs, with AFC Bournemouth's Marcos Senesi (£4.6m) and Everton's James Tarkowski (£5.5m) the only players to collect two defensive contribution (DC) points in each of the first four Gameweeks. That's already the equivalent of two extra clean sheets each.

Positions of players earning 4+ DC points, GW1-4

So, should managers move to a four-man defence?

First of all, it’s early days in the first season, with defensive contribution points and managers are still adjusting their approaches.

Nonetheless, the addition of this metric also comes in a season where defences have started stronger than the previous two campaigns.

Should that trend continue, the potential offered at the back through clean sheets and defensive contribution points can make four at the back a profitable tactic.

Attackers are still far more likely to get you bigger armband hauls, though, and many managers will prefer to play with three in defence to maximise the upside of goals and assists from seven midfielders and forwards.

If you do go four at the back, it’s important to look for value offered in the budget bracket and have at least two favourably-priced defenders in order to free up funds for big-hitters such as Erling Haaland (£14.1m).