Analysis: Donnarumma arrival continues Pep’s goalkeeper evolution

Could Ederson's exit and Gianluigi Donnarumma’s arrival at Manchester City lead to a shift in tactics for Pep Guardiola? Opta Analyst's Ali Tweedale explores the data.

We're all well aware of how much goalkeeper passing habits have changed over the years that Pep Guardiola has been in England.

Premier League football is unrecognisable from the game that was played before he arrived.

In 2015/16, the last season before Guardiola took over at Manchester City, 74.2 per cent of all goal-kicks ended in the opposition's half. Last season, that figure was down at 40.4 per cent.

The rule change that came in ahead of 2019/20 that meant passes played from goal-kicks could end inside the penalty area had a pretty big impact, too, but the game was already heading in that direction. The increase in goalkeeper pass completion rates shows as much.

But what Guardiola has done to football arguably would never have been possible were it not for the signing of Ederson in June 2017.

The arrival of the most technically gifted goalkeeper the Premier League – or possibly even world football – has ever seen allowed Guardiola to demand things of his goalkeeper that nobody else could.

Man City's passing from goal-kicks changed dramatically every season Guardiola has been in charge.

In open play, City could draw their opponents in like no other team, because Ederson was calm and competent enough on the ball to deal with the pressure of a high press. City essentially always had one more outfield player than their opponents.

But arguably even more significant than his short passing was his ability to thump the ball two-thirds of the way up the pitch with devastating accuracy.

These weren't just hopeful punts up the pitch for a team-mate to chase; these were driven balls, often kept at a low trajectory that had a very specific target.

More consistently than any other goalkeeper in Premier League history, Ederson created chances for team-mates.

He has two more assists than any other goalkeeper in Premier League history (seven) even though he only played there eight seasons. And in the time he was in England, all other goalkeepers picked up 19 assists between them.

He produced a scarcely believable four assists in 2024/25 alone, which was more than many, many attackers, including his team-mates Erling Haaland and Phil Foden, as well as the likes of Mohammed Kudus and Noni Madueke.

But now his time in England has come to an end. Without any fanfare at all, Ederson has departed for Fenerbahce, and with it, the Premier League has lost its most influential goalkeeper ever.

Watch Ederson's Premier League assists

Ederson did not depart before Gianluigi Donnarumma, quite possibly the best shot-stopper on the planet right now, was signed from Paris Saint-Germain.

Opinions on City signing the Italian are generally split into two main schools of thought.

Some will fully and justifiably understand why they took up the opportunity to sign a legend who has won it all.

For others, it is curious and ever so slightly bemusing that Guardiola, once so quick to cast Joe Hart aside for Claudio Bravo due to the latter's superior passing, is happy to lose Ederson and replace him with a goalkeeper who is far less able when it comes to his passing and distribution.

The fact is that City were always going to struggle to find a replacement for Ederson who could play like him while also being as good at keeping the ball out of his net.

His shot-stopping ability is sometimes downplayed given it isn't his biggest strength, but he is still one of the best around.

In the Premier League last season, Ederson prevented more non-penalty goals with his shot-stopping (6.0) than any other goalkeeper, according to the Expected Goals on Target value of the shots he faced. Expected Goals on Target measures the quality of a shot on target, factoring placement, power, and goalkeeper positioning to show how likely it was to result in a goal.

Locations of shots saved and conceded by Ederson 2024/25

In Donnarumma, City have a man mountain who commands his area, makes the goal look tiny, and keeps the ball out of his net about as effectively as anyone on the planet.

Over the past 10 seasons – since he broke through for Milan in 2015 – only two goalkeepers in Europe's top five leagues have prevented more goals with their saves than Donnarumma.

In that time, he conceded 40.6 goals fewer than the average shot-stopper would have, putting him behind only Jan Oblak (45.4 goals prevented) and Brice Samba (41.0).

In four seasons in his career, Donnarumma has had better goals-prevented numbers than Ederson did in 2024/25.

The perception of Donnarumma’s passing being a weakness is exacerbated by the fact he is so good at shot-stopping. It makes the rest of his game look so much worse.

But there is also no denying that he just isn't as good on the ball as many other top goalkeepers. He looks rather ungainly with the ball at his feet, and isn't able to risk short passes when others might.

Last month, Luis Enrique elected to drop Donnarumma for the UEFA Super Cup final against Tottenham Hotspur, and he explained his decision to the media.

Reading between the lines of what Enrique said, Donnarumma's passing ability looks very much like the reason he has moved on.

"It is a difficult decision," Enrique said. "I only have praise for Donnarumma. He is one of the very best goalkeepers out there and an even better man.

"But we were looking for a different profile. It's very difficult to take these types of decisions."

How good is Donnarumma’s passing?

Hart, who as mentioned, knows a thing or two about being on the wrong end of a manager changing the type of goalkeeper he wants to use, insists any issues with Donnarumma’s passing are overplayed.

"He’s more than capable with his feet," Hart told BBC’s Monday Night Club this week.

"I didn’t watch PSG last year and think, 'Oh, they’re just having to shell it [kick it long] because Donnarumma can’t play.' They played through [the lines], and they won everything."

Hart is right to an extent. You can’t be a goalkeeper for a team like PSG and win the treble in this day and age while being bad with your feet. Donnarumma is a decent enough ball-playing goalkeeper.

But it’s also true that his passing isn’t at the level of someone like Ederson, or even now-second-choice City goalkeeper James Trafford.

There are difficulties with analysing Donnarumma's passing data because PSG dominate matches so much.

For example, of all goalkeepers to play more than 100 minutes in Ligue 1 last season, only Marseille’s Geronimo Rulli (86.9 per cent) had a better pass-success rate than Donnarumma (85.4 per cent).

Rulli was also the only goalkeeper to play a lower proportion of his passes long, with Donnarumma playing just 25.6 per cent of his passes over a long distance. Given opponents often dropped off PSG, the Italian was often able to find a centre-back without facing any pressure.

Looking at his numbers in the UEFA Champions League last season paints a slightly more accurate picture of his ability. Donnarumma's pass-completion rate dropped to 73.9 per cent, while he played 40.2 per cent of his passes long.

It appears as though he was either instructed or forced to go longer more often when up against tougher opposition, resulting in him completing fewer of his passes.

That hardly feels like a stick with which to beat him given there are plenty of other goalkeepers who played more of their passes long with lower pass-completion rates, including Liverpool's Alisson Becker and Arsenal's David Raya.

But a further look into the data suggests Donnarumma was playing more safe passes than most.

In the Champions League in 2025/26, he ranked among the goalkeepers to play the lowest proportion of his passes forwards (45.6 per cent), while of the 26 keepers to play more than five matches, only three averaged fewer than his 2.0 line-breaking passes per 90.

The main limitation with any goalkeeper's passing numbers is that they could be the result of stylistic decisions on the part of the manager; a goalkeeper might not break lines with his passing because his manager has told him not to risk doing so.

However, given Enrique's comments about Donnarumma and his insistence on needing a "different profile" of goalkeeper, it's probably fair to conclude that, even if he did tell Donnarumma to play the way he did last season, he would prefer to do something different.

And for him, that required a new goalkeeper.

What does this all mean for City?

Guardiola is likely going to have to adapt the way his team plays. They have already conceded a goal against Spurs this season after Trafford was caught playing a risky pass in his own penalty area and Guardiola may not ask the same of Donnarumma.

See how Spurs scored from Trafford's pass

In Haaland, City have a big man up front, and Guardiola has long been happy for his goalkeeper to try and pick him out with a direct ball.

The difference with Donnarumma, however, is that his punts up the pitch are generally just that: punts. As we touched upon earlier, Ederson’s exceptional ability and vision meant he could target a particular player who was 60 or 70 yards away.

Ederson got as many assists in 26 Premier League matches in 2024/25 (four) as Donnarumma has created chances in 412 matches in all competitions in his entire career for Milan and PSG.

Again, there are stylistic considerations to be taken into account here, but the numbers are so stark that they still give us some information about the contrast in the two goalkeepers' technical ability with their feet.

There is a chance that it might not matter, though. As Guardiola has acknowledged, Premier League football is changing. It is increasingly becoming about transitions and quick, direct attacks.

"Today, modern football is the way Bournemouth, Newcastle United, Brighton & Hove Albion and Liverpool play," the City manager told TNT Sports earlier this year.

"Modern football is not positional," he continued, referring to the positional play upon which his philosophy is based.

Having a goalkeeper who can put your centre-forward through on goal is an incredible luxury, but it's never going to be a reliable source of chances.

And in a world where transitions are increasingly effective, long balls that produce 50-50s to give your players an opportunity to win the ball high up the pitch are a worthy route forward.

Arsenal have been doing it for ages under Mikel Arteta, often even pushing a full-back way up the pitch to contest the aerial ball from Raya.

So, unable to replace both Ederson’s passing and his shot-stopping ability, Guardiola has opted, quite reasonably, to take up the opportunity to sign one of the best shot-stoppers of his generation.

It might change the way City play slightly, but football is heading that way anyway.

We are only three fixtures into 2025/26, but for the first time in 10 years, the proportion of Premier League goal-kicks that have gone into the opposition’s half has increased. And it's been a significant increase, too.

Signing Donnarumma doesn't mean Guardiola's City are going to become a long-ball team. They aren't going to rip up all of their previous plans and constantly start lumping the ball long to Haaland.

But they will come under pressure from teams who saw what Spurs did to them and who know Donnarumma isn't at Ederson's level with his feet. City might find opponents pressing them high more than ever, and we may see them go long more than we have in previous years as a result.

Guardiola and Ederson revolutionised Premier League football and the role of the goalkeeper.

The signing of Donnarumma isn't going to have anything like the same catalytic effect, but it does appear to be a sign of the direction the game is going.

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