Arsenal will be TOP of the Premier League at Christmas for the third time in four years after their 1-0 win at Everton meant that they overtook Manchester City who had briefly leapfrogged them with a 3-0 victory over West Ham United a few hours earlier.
But while it’s the FIFTH time overall that Arsenal have led the Premier League on Christmas Day, ominously on each of those past four occasions they have failed to lift the Premier League Trophy in May.
The first time was in 2002/03 when as champions Arsenal led the way once more but fell short to Manchester United. Then in 2007/08 they fell away to finish third, with again Man Utd becoming champions.
Under present manager Mikel Arteta, this year is the third occasion of being top on Christmas Day. In 2022/23 and the following season, Arsenal were top but on each occasion were overtaken by Man City, their nearest challengers this season, sitting two points behind.
Indeed, the Gunners were six points clear of City on Christmas Day 2024 but ultimately finished two points BEHIND them in May. Will it be third time lucky for Arteta?
History shows that just over half of the Christmas leaders go on to win the Premier League title.
In 17 of the Premier League's 33 full seasons so far, the team sitting top on 25 December went on to lift the trophy, but in the other 16 campaigns they missed out.
Fate of Christmas leaders
| Season | Team | Final pos. | Season | Team | Final pos. |
| 92/93 | Norwich | 3rd | 09/10 | Chelsea | 1st |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93/94 | Man Utd | 1st | 10/11 | Man Utd | 1st |
| 94/95 | Blackburn | 1st | 11/12 | Man City | 1st |
| 95/96 | Newcastle | 2nd | 12/13 | Man Utd | 1st |
| 96/97 | Liverpool | 4th | 13/14 | Liverpool | 2nd |
| 97/98 | Man Utd | 2nd | 14/15 | Chelsea | 1st |
| 98/99 | Aston Villa | 6th | 15/16 | Leicester | 1st |
| 99/00 | Leeds | 3rd | 16/17 | Chelsea | 1st |
| 00/01 | Man Utd | 1st | 17/18 | Man City | 1st |
| 01/02 | Newcastle | 4th | 18/19 | Liverpool | 2nd |
| 02/03 | Arsenal | 2nd | 19/20 | Liverpool | 1st |
| 03/04 | Man Utd | 3rd | 20/21 | Liverpool | 3rd |
| 04/05 | Chelsea | 1st | 21/22 | Man City | 1st |
| 05/06 | Chelsea | 1st | 22/23 | Arsenal | 2nd |
| 06/07 | Man Utd | 1st | 23/24 | Arsenal | 2nd |
| 07/08 | Arsenal | 3rd | 24/25 | Liverpool | 1st |
| 08/09 | Liverpool | 2nd | 25/26 | Arsenal | ? |
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Don't write anyone off
The last four occasions when the Christmas leaders have been overtaken, it has been Man City who have come from behind to be crowned champions.
They were eight points behind Liverpool in 2020/21, four points behind Liverpool in 2022/23 and six points adrift of Arsenal in fifth place in 2023/24.
City's climb from fifth place in 2023/24 made it the fourth time a team outside the top four on Christmas Day has been crowned champions at the end of the season.
The previous three were achieved by Man Utd, who were fifth in 1996/97, Arsenal (sixth in 1997/98) and City (eighth in 2020/21).
It was also the ninth season in which a team in third place or lower at Christmas has gone on to win the title.
Champions to come from behind at Xmas
| Season | Team | Pts behind at Xmas | Position at Xmas |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1992/93 | Man Utd | 5 | 4th |
| 1995/96 | Man Utd | 10 | 2nd |
| 1996/97 | Man Utd | 7 | 5th |
| 1997/98 | Arsenal | 13 | 6th |
| 1998/99 | Man Utd | 5 | 3rd |
| 1999/00 | Man Utd | 2 | 2nd |
| 2001/02 | Arsenal | 3 | 2nd |
| 2002/03 | Man Utd | 4 | 3rd |
| 2003/04 | Arsenal | 1 | 2nd |
| 2007/08 | Man Utd | 1 | 2nd |
| 2008/09 | Man Utd | 7 | 4th |
| 2013/14 | Man City | 1 | 3rd |
| 2018/19 | Man City | 4 | 2nd |
| 2020/21 | Man City | 8 | 8th |
| 2022/23 | Man City | 5 | 2nd |
| 2023/24 | Man City | 6 | 5th |
The record for being the most points off the top at Christmas before going on to win the Premier League title belongs to Arsenal, who were 13 points behind Man Utd in 1997/98.
On the flip side, the unwanted record of the lowest finishing position for a team who sat top at Christmas belongs to Aston Villa, who fell to sixth in 1998/99.
Bottom three at Christmas
At the other end of the table, what do relegation places on Christmas Day tell us about how things will finish in May?
The bottom three are occupied by Wolverhampton Wanderers, Burnley and West Ham. Wolves were in this position last season, along with Ipswich Town and Southampton, but managed to stay up with the hiring of Vitor Pereira, albeit with more points than their current total of two.
Only on four occasions have the bottom three teams at Christmas all been relegated at the season's end: 2001/02 - Derby County, Leicester City, Ipswich; 2012/13 - Wigan Athletic, Queens Park Rangers, Reading; 2020/21 - Fulham, West Bromwich Albion, Sheffield United; 2023/24 - Luton Town, Burnley and Sheff Utd.
On four occasions, the team at the bottom on Christmas Day have managed to stay up, and all have come in the last 20 years: 2004/05 - West Brom; 2013/14 - Sunderland; 2014/15 - Leicester; 2022/23 - Wolves.
Two sides who were in the top 10 on 25 December have fallen into the relegation zone on the final day.
Blackpool went down despite being 10th in 2010/11. And even a team in seventh place, which is currently occupied by Man Utd, once fell away to the extent that they were relegated - Norwich City in 1994/95.