Statistics

2022/23 in numbers: Who did best for Expected Goals?

21 Jun 2023
Arsenal FC v AFC Bournemouth - Premier League

We analyse season's data and see which teams and players did best for goalscoring with the chances presented

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2022/23 in numbers: Which teams had the most shots?
2022/23 in numbers: Which players had the most shots?

After a Premier League season like no other, we have downloaded the key stats and will show you in a series of articles which teams and players have run furthest or fastest, had the most shots or showed ruthlessness in front of goal over the course of the last 10 months.

Expected Goals (xG)

The Expected Goals (xG) metric is a model used to assess every goal-scoring chance, and the likelihood of scoring. Arsenal were the best team in terms of converting their chances to goals, scoring 88 goals in total from an Expected Goals metric of 73.33. So the Gunners scored over 14 goals more than the data expected of them.

Conversely, the table below shows Chelsea were the team who struggled the most to convert their chances. They were expected to score almost 51 goals, but in fact only scored 38 all season. 

Clubs ranked by goals to xG 
Team Goals   xG Goals-xG
Arsenal 88 73.33 +14.67
Man City 94 80.47 +13.53
Spurs 70 57.81 +12.19
Fulham 55 47.03 +7.97
Liverpool 75 73.74 +1.26
Brentford 58 57.89 +0.11
Crystal Palace 40 39.95 +0.05
Aston Villa 51 50.99 +0.01
Leicester 51 51.32 -0.32
Leeds 48 48.57 -0.57
Nott'm Forest 38 39.78 -1.78
Southampton 36 38.41 -2.41
Bournemouth 37 39.46 -2.46
Brighton  72 74.75 -2.75
Newcastle  68 73.48 -5.48
Wolves 31 37.84 -6.84
West Ham  42 50.77 -8.77
Man Utd 58 68.74 -10.74
Everton 34 45.78 -11.78
Chelsea 38 50.08 -12.08

In terms of players, Harry Kane was the best performer for making difficult chances into goals. The Tottenham Hotspur striker was presented with opportunities to score that totalled almost 21.5 goals, but in fact registered 30 goals in 2022/23, more than eight goals higher. 

Top 10 players for xG to goals
Player   Goals   xG Goals-xG
Harry Kane  30 21.46 8.54
Erling Haaland  36 28.66 7.34
Gabriel Martinelli 15 9.13 5.87
Roberto Firmino 11 5.5 5.50
Phil Foden  11 5.92 5.08
Martin Odegaard 15 9.99 5.01
Rodrigo 13 8.12 4.88
Harvey Barnes  13 8.94 4.06
Pascal Gross 9 5.41 3.59
Dwight McNeil  7 3.53 3.47
Expected Goals Against (xGA)

In a similar fashion Expected Goals Against (xGA) looks at the quality of the chances conceded by a team and gives them a measurement of how likely they were to be a goal.

Here, Fulham are the team to have performed best, conceding only 53 goals when they were expected to let in more than 65. Spurs cumulated chances on their own goal that totalled over 50, yet conceded 63 goals in total, the worst performance for xGA from Premier League teams. 

Clubs ranked by goals conceded to xGA
Team   Goals conceded xGA Goals xGA
Fulham 53 65.56 -12.56
Everton 57 66.85 -9.85
Man Utd 43 51.18 -8.18
Aston Villa 46 53.42 -7.42
Newcastle  33 40.09 -7.09
Chelsea 47 53.43 -6.43
Brentford 46 51.76 -5.76
Liverpool 47 51.67 -4.67
Wolves 58 60.78 -2.78
Man City 33 33.07 -0.07
Crystal Palace 49 48.88 +0.12
Arsenal 43 42.47 +0.53
West Ham  55 54.33 +0.67
Brighton  53 50.56 +2.44
Leicester 68 65.51 +2.49
Nott'm Forest 68 65.19 +2.81
Bournemouth 71 65.04 5.96
Leeds 78 67.99 10.01
Southampton 73 62.06 10.94
Spurs 63 50.39 12.61
Also in this series

Part 1: Which teams had the most shots?
Part 2: Which players had the most shots?
Part 4: Which players made most tackles and blocks?
Part 5: Who were the fastest players?
Part 6: Who ran the furthest?
Part 7: Which players created most chances?
Part 8: Which players were the top passers?

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